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1. The opinion of a wild blockchain game researcher
Today, I finally have the urge to start writing this new series of articles. The friends of W Labs have kindly advised me: Brother Gua, few gamers will seriously read this kind of theoretical analysis articles looking forward to the future of the industry. What everyone likes to see the most is which chain game is good, earns the most money, when to rush, how to rush, or spend the time writing such articles on a few more one-page knowledge of popular chain game projects, audience players Its more than that.
The suggestion makes sense. However, Gua Tian, as a willful wild blockchain game industry researcher, has always been a little overwhelmed and wanted to write about this topic. Moreover, the recent actual situation in Guatian is that, apart from doing internal testing for a few games, I haven’t played chain games for more than a month. Because it is a bear market, chain games are not driven by the interests of earning (Earn), and there is no way to play any current games. The urge to start a chain game is not fun, really not fun, I would rather go back to WEB2.0 and continue to play Romance of the Three Kingdoms Strategy Edition and Eat Chicken.
So at the beginning of this article, I will first point out my point of view: the development direction of the economic model of most chain games is wrong, or the model may still be in its infancy, and the result will be a death spiral in the end.
But Gua Tian cant always be a keyboard warrior, he cant complain about this, cant he? I am very optimistic about the future prospects of the chain game industry. In the future, there will be better economic models to support the continued evolution of chain games. In the last series of long articles The Secret of the Chain Game Economic Model (Original link:https://mirror.xyz/iamwgg.eth/njmPWdQxdCgOM54srB7T5kcEanlxZUFLBmGHBkYlXdY）
In the end, Guada proposed three possible ideas on how the chain game model can break out of the death spiral:
Make chain games fun, so fun that players in the encrypted world are motivated to start krypton gold for this game;
Transform the current model mechanism from token economics to NFT economics with stronger asset accumulation and less liquidity;
To expand the scene, such as the metaverse scene, the chain game is only a link in the metaverse scene, and the life cycle of the chain game is also supported by other brother scenes in the entire metaverse.
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2. Why the economic model of Game 1.0 will definitely lead to a death spiral
Game 1.0’s chain game is a chain game based on the economic model of play to earn. To be clear, it is the imitation of Axie and various revised versions, including single token and double token. This kind of chain game, Gua Tian said in the previous long article, the life cycle must be shorter than the same type of mobile games, and the death spiral is certain.
When Gua Tian raised the above point of view a few months ago, it was criticized by many people: Dont talk nonsense if you dont understand it yourself. Gua Tian basically doesn’t argue. First, I still think that my point of view is probably right. Second, the ass determines the head, and people invest in it. If you say that their model is not good enough to cause a death spiral, who will welcome it? You, so you have to understand the excitement of the other party; third, explain clearly to the other party, and he will not give me half a U, so why should I be in a hurry...
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2.1 Behavioral Finance
In Gamefi1.0 chain games, participants can be classified into four categories: investment institutions, project parties, old players, and new players. The only purpose of the four of them is to make money, so the food chain is as shown in the figure below:
The project party has the highest probability of making money, and all parties from investment institutions, old players and new players have the opportunity to make money, because its information asymmetry is the weakest. The biggest natural enemy of the project party is the market. For example, when encountering the current bear market, they all rush to the street.
Investment institutions also have a high probability of making money. As long as the project party eats big meat, investment institutions can also eat minced meat. After all, they are all in this industry. If you cut me off for one project, no one will invest in you in the next project. . Therefore, a win-win situation is the best. If the two parties must compete against each other, there is a high probability that the project party will cut off the investment institution. After all, they have the right to speak in the project and move quickly; If you sell it, Ill clear it straight away, what can you do? Sue me? I also sue you for defamation. So some investment institutions have figured it out. I want to invest and do my own projects. Animoca Brand is the best case. It takes everything.
Players are at the bottom of the food chain, but because of the large number of players, there is always survivorship bias. Some people can earn hundreds of times, such as last years Raca and this years Stepn. Therefore, the role model effect makes the currency circle not worry about the lack of successors.
Veteran players enter the market early, ambush when they catch a good project, and earn their principal through digging, selling or speculating coins early, and continue to roll the rest, and run away when they see the market is not good. The risk is that the time to enter the market is not early enough, the running is not fast enough, or all re-investments are made in the heat of the head.
New players are the worst. The high probability of coming in is to increase the liquidity of the old players, maintain the stability of the currency price, and then for the old players to mine and sell. So if you only enter the market after the project starts to heat up, then you have to be more careful all the time.
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2.2 The dialectic between new players and old players
Guada used a small model to illustrate the problems that new players will encounter when they enter the project after a period of time:
Assumptions:
A,Ah Qiang enters the field on Day 1, and the cumulative number of players on Day 0 is 100, and the number of players will increase by 10 every day thereafter;
B,According to the behavioral finance of 2.1, it is assumed that all players who come to make short-term money are digging, withdrawing and selling, and old players will not invest again;
C,A player produces 5 tokenA per day;
We get the following table:
After careful study, several points can be found:
If the player maintains the same amount of increase every day, his growth rate will decrease;
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2.3 Modeling new players and net output
If you add a column of consumption after the table in 2.1, you can get a very important indicator: net output = output - consumption. When the net output is greater than zero, the currency price will start to fall; the net output is less than At zero hour, the currency price can still rise. Gua Tian simply hand-painted three pictures and analyzed them. The ugly is a bit ugly. Gua friends will just take a look...
The horizontal axis is time, the vertical axis is quantity, the slope of the curve is the growth rate, the black line is the number of new players entering the market, and the red line is the number of net output.
The above picture can be used to analyze intuitively. When the growth rate of new players enters the game, the player will be ready to leave the game.
Figure A is the curve of most chain game projects. When the red line breaks through the horizontal axis, the net output is zero, and then the currency price starts to fall. At this time, the growth rate of new players entering the market has slowed down, so at this point Is it a suitable escape point? It may be too late, Guada suggested to start shipping at the point when the increase rate of the black curve slows down.
Figure B is an excellent student project, such as StepN, where new players grow very fast, and the consumption of tokens by new players can be used to offset the mining and selling of old players. Therefore, when the net output is zero, if the growth rate of the player does not decrease, it is a good student. It is recommended to continue to hold or reduce a part of the position.
Figure C is a poor student project. When the net output is still less than zero, that is, when old players are still consuming a large amount of tokens, the growth rate of new players entering the market has slowed down. This kind of project should not be entered at all. If you enter, run away.
Of course, the above is only a part of the simplified model. The complete model has helped the project side correct the output and consumption values in the internal testing of some games. It looks good so far, but it is just a self-entertainment made by Guadatian. Its just for fun, welcome melon friends to correct it.
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3. Why did you play games before playing blockchain games?
Guada is an otaku who has almost 30 years of game experience, from the earliest handheld Tetris, to the minesweeping and spider solitaire that comes with the windows system, and then to the later computer games Sword and Fairy 1, Three Kingdoms The Legend of Heroes, then to Red Alert, StarCraft, Heroes of Might and Magic 3, and then to the online games Warcraft, PlayerUnknowns Battlegrounds, Three Kingdoms Strategy Edition and so on. The game is so fun, it makes me very happy. To sum up, there are a few cool points:
Escape from reality: You can realize a second life and have a sense of control over your life. For example, everyone loves to read time-traveling cool articles;
The sense of accomplishment is overwhelming: as long as you are strong enough or kryptonite enough, you will be a big boss or leader. In the game, a big flag is raised and everyone is knocked down. The younger brothers bow down, the younger sisters worship, and the laning players cry;
Gambling is in line with human nature: when the card game is full of energy, when the team is weak against the strong, dopamine is secreted wildly, directly refreshing the brain;
Social attributes: After playing a game for a long time, the brothers in the league become real brothers who chat and fart in WeChat, and emotional exchanges;
So, there are so many cool points, is it swollen to spend some money on Krypton Point Gold? And the current chain games, do you have the above cool points? Basically not, the third point of gambling odds can be designed, but the core point is also for earn, when you play a game completely for earn, the final result is the death spiral summarized in our first article.
Therefore, in order to extend the life cycle of chain games, the first direction that can be broken through is to allow players to obtain other cool points besides the cool point of making money, the more the better! Alex of Foresight Research also wrote a recent article (Thoughts on a Healthy and Motivating Gamefi Economic Model)https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_hHSgyBmk3TbmX8qRcOcHQ）It is proposed in: to allow players to obtain non-monetary benefits in the game. The hero sees the same thing, and explains it in the vernacular that Guadain is used to: the non-monetary income of the game is other cool things for the player besides making money.
In the future chain games, if these cool points are added to the game as much as possible, the more likely it is to break through the death spiral. Think about why traditional excellent games can have a life cycle of up to ten years: krypton gold players find something cool in fun games, and are willing to pay to draw cards to buy game coins; the project party has obtained krypton gold players’ funds Afterwards, keep a part for yourself, and continue to develop the rest to make the game more fun; more fun games attract more ordinary players; more and more ordinary players give krypton gold players more cool points and continue to stimulate krypton gold players to spend money .
The whole model is shown in the figure below, and it can be rotated by itself, perfect.
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4. What happens after the game is fun?
W Labs contacted some traditional game manufacturers some time ago, and also helped them do internal testing of traditional game transformation chain games. I have to say that after all, they are all products that have been polished for 2-3 years, and their playability has indeed surpassed the current market. On the chain tour. Well, assuming that the game itself is already fun, and players have all kinds of cool things to play in, how to operate it in the future to become a good project?
Most of the game teams answered in this way: the most attractive thing about chain games is to make money. Brother Gua, please help us design an economic model that can be grafted on the original game numerical system. Our first step is to let chain games Players earn money, and the second step is to use the money to attract Web2 players to play and earn while playing.
The logic sounds fine, but there is one point. You use Earn as a driving force to attract Web2 players to make money. Hasn’t he become a currency player again? Back to the old way. The drainage path proposed by Guatian is: Step 1: Design the game to be fun first, so that players in the currency circle can feel it is fun; Step 2: Design the same path in the game as traditional games, download the game, and register an account. can play. Dont worry about wallets or deposits, Web2 players will play first. Step 3: Do you want to know why those rookies who are worse than you can make money? Did they buy skins or upgrade characters, are they excited? I can teach you what is an NFT, what is a wallet…
Players who come in through such a drainage path are long-term and reliable real chain game players, not a group of masturbation parties. At present, some chain games on the market have begun to try this way. For example, the 3A masterpiece Bigtime, which was promoted last year, has two characteristics: 1. No token has been issued so far, and players have played NFT; 2. Perfect We designed the path for WEB2 players to come in and play, which is exactly the same as traditional mobile games, just register an account. Later, when the player is excited and wants to make gold, it is also designed to buy NFT directly by swiping a credit card. Guada strongly recommends that development teams who are confident in the playability of their games should also design a set of entry paths that can be played for free but not paid for, if you want to divert from the 3 billion Web2 game players around the world.
Well, suppose a game already has a group of real players who have achieved a cool point. They are the basic board of the game, and they should be cherished, because among them are the players who pay for the cool point, and they are the ones who promote the game. The endogenous factors of capital flow can make the model self-circulating. The success of StepN is also inseparable from the promotion of some endogenous factors: Compared with other games, the re-investment rate of old players is much higher. Excluding the reasons for high returns, the refreshing point of StepN = health will indeed make some The player pays. There are many players around Gua Tian (especially female players, this is a new topic) who bought shoes for their friends or relatives to encourage them to run.
Basic disk is very important. When W Labs provided model establishment and consultation to the chain game development team, it always suggested that old players need to cut off the model ideas of new players, and adjust it so that after the project side earns money from krypton gold players, it needs to give part of the rewards to loyal players. Players are the basic board mentioned above, so that the game can last longer. The method can be rewarded to players who hold Vetoken or have enough interactions through the DAO treasury.
The game itself is more fun and refreshing, it protects the basic disk, and there are some krypton gold players, which generate self-circulating cash flow, and the life cycle has exceeded the original pure Play to Earn model. But human nature likes the new and dislikes the old. The coolness of the game must gradually fade with the passage of time, and there will be fewer and fewer new players, and the gold players will gradually lose money. What should we do at this time?
Then it is necessary to find exogenous factors in advance to stimulate the circulation of cash flow. This is difficult to achieve in traditional games, because players are limited in front of mobile phones or computer screens, but WEB3 games have metaverses. Do you think about it? Is it open?
Let me give you a case first, the Korean running shoes SNKRZ (for details, please refer to the first article of SNKRZ and 5KM in another long research article Move to earn track project analysis that W Labs is serializing). His home is an imitation of StepN. However, a more interesting PVE task gameplay has been developed, and enterprises and project parties can cooperate in tasks.
Gua Tian thinks about it for the project side, such as setting a running task route, the enterprise side has the most billboards on the task route, and it goes straight to the runners’ eyeballs, what a good advertising effect; another example is that the project party goes to talk to Starbucks, Five Starbucks stores were used as check-in points along the mission route. When the runner passed a Starbucks, Apps directly popped up a voice prompt from Zhiling’s sister, “Congratulations, you have passed the second level, come on! Starbucks I’ve been cheering you on!” Starbucks spends so much on marketing for a year, so is it swollen for some project parties to spend on advertising under such a good model? It depends on whether the operation team of SNKRZ can get it up, and the current situation seems to be worrying.
Therefore, Guatian believes that the layout of such exogenous factors should be done well in advance, and before the endogenous factors of chain game krypton gold players fade away, it is necessary to increase exogenous factors to expand business. Gua Tian himself feels that the serious damage suffered by StepN in the past few days is essentially the inevitable fate of the economic model, but in fact it is also because of exogenous factors that have not progressed too quickly. The fundamentals of his family are better than other products, and there is a higher proportion of re-investment players in endogenous factors. In terms of exogenous factors, if we speed up the cooperation with those few sports shoe manufacturers, can it give players hope? Lets look forward to the rebirth of the phoenix in StepN.
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Five sets of baby dolls are deep, and the iron pestle is ground into needles.
The previous article said that the game should be fun to play. In terms of internal factors, allowing players to get different cool points and krypton gold can extend the life cycle of the game, so how to implement it? As far as the analysis of a single chain game project is concerned, it can be made into a cycle within the system: continuously adding nesting dolls and prolonging the circulation cycle of tokens. As long as the playability is strong enough, at least a majority of players will pay for a doll with good playability.
The word matryoshka is produced in DEFI in the encryption circle. For example, pledge 100 TokenA and produce 50 TokenB; continue to pledge 50 TakeB and produce 25 TokenA... In this cycle, the original 100 TokenA assets are maximized. The two stablecoins in the Defi head mine mine each other.
The definition of Matryoshka in Gamefi can be divided into two directions: the upward nesting is to make a fuss about tokens and NFTs; the downward nesting is to make a fuss about the scenes and copies in the game. Here, Guatian will give you a case study of illuvium, a recently popular blockchain game (that is, a 3A game that sold 20,000 units on June 2).
Illuivium issued coins in March last year. The mother coin ILV caught up with the Gamefi boom last year, and rose from a few dozen dollars to 2,000 dollars, but there were no application scenarios at that time. What should I do? Create one, so a simple pledge mining scene came out: pledge ILV to get silv2, the project side encourages players to try to lock the time period (the kind that cannot be taken out in the middle), so that when it expires, take it out, silv2 It is the interest, and the principal ilv is still there; if you are lonely and insist on unlocking, then the ilv will be destroyed and converted into silv2.
The core point of this kind of matryoshka is that the benefits brought by the pledge to the players should be large enough, that is, the usefulness of the silv2 produced by the pledge should be attractive, so this illuvium land sale has fulfilled its promise, and ETH or silv2 can be used to Buy it, so that the players who are set on the top of the mountain in 2021 will feel a little more balanced. Let me add one more thing here, this time the illuvium land sale has a 30% stable arbitrage opportunity in the short term, and some melon friends in the community have made another wave. This is one of the opportunities to make money in chain games in the bear market.
This is just one of the simplest patterns in upward nesting dolls. The current blockchain game model can already incorporate many Defi mechanisms, such as the Ve (3,3) mechanism, the Bond mechanism, and so on. A few days ago, Mr. K published an article Is the token pledge model really suitable for the GAMEFI track (https://mirror.xyz/iamwgg.eth/HAoZR4dbEEghw4ql7fEeaXLeAPGiRronSDjGCpMZC-4), summed up our core points about upward nesting dolls: each additional layer of nesting dolls can add a reservoir, and at the same time prevent players from simply digging and selling; of course, the matching gameplay should be game-like, Otherwise, it is just an extra calculation on the data model. The combination of game + randomness will make the effect better.
Next, let’s talk about the more important “downward matryoshka”: you can add scenes in the game, and add different types of game methods under the same theme, such as SLG, RPG, Moba, etc. This is a vertical matryoshka; The diversity of the copy, according to the expansion of the external branches and leaves of the storyline, is a horizontal nesting doll. Continuing to take illuvium as the case of vertical matryoshka, his game has currently developed three scenarios:
Scenario 1: The land you bought can be used to play business development games, build buildings, add mining machines to farm and so on, and produce the sub-coin Fuel. If it was Gamefi1.0 last year, it would be over here, or Fuel re-invests in upgrading the land, or digs and sells it;
The second scene: The project party added a nesting doll afterwards, and designed an open world RPG scene. Fuel can be used to fight monsters and catch monsters in this open world. This layer of nesting dolls can also end here, monsters NFT is thrown into the trading market for sale;
The third scene: The project team added a nesting doll, designed an arena, combined the captured monsters into a team and put them on the arena to play in the arena, and played against each other in the way of auto chess. If you win, you can get token rewards .
As long as the game is fun enough, in principle, this kind of vertical nesting dolls can be set indefinitely. As long as you set it up reasonably and make players happy, players may consume the tokens in their hands in layers of nesting dolls, reducing the Sell pressure. In fact, this kind of scene superimposition method has existed twenty years ago. Do you still remember 3DOs Heroes of Invincible 3: Shadow of Death? Forever a masterpiece, his family has almost perfectly combined the two scenes of Kaitu RPG mining and war chess SLG, but chain games can use tokens to connect several scenes.
Horizontal nesting dolls are also possible. Let’s take a fictional example of the game “The Legend of Condor Heroes” from Guatian: after the player finished playing the copy of “Zhongnanshan Quanzhen Sect” and singled out the Seven Masters of Quanzhen, he got the Great Eagle Token. At this time, an option popped up: Congratulations You rank in the top 10% of this weeks combat power in this level, and you can get a Yang Guo NFT by consuming 10 Da Diao tokens, and you can enter the mysterious copy Ancient Tomb School! Of course, if you complete the Tomb Sect mission, you can get a rarer limited edition Little Dragon Girl NFT!
Similar to the above horizontal nesting dolls can also be extended indefinitely, the point is as long as it is fun. For example, Xiaolongnv NFT can also be merged and destroyed together with Yang Guo NFT to obtain two prop NFTs of Yitian Sword and Dragon Slaying Knife, which can be combined to open a copy of Magic Master and so on. Anyway, more designs can be made.
Summarizing the Matryoshka mechanism, the token flow cycle of a single chain game project can be made longer and longer: Matryoshka is to learn from Defi to slow down the circulation speed of tokens and NFT; Matryoshka is to add content to the game. Among them, the vertical nesting dolls add different gameplay and scenes to attract players who like different game types, but the theme must be consistent, and Guan Gong cannot fight Qin Qiong; the horizontal nesting dolls add branch lines that expand the main story line of the game, which can be used to attract For players who are obsessed with the game background and story, it is quite appropriate to use the dungeon mode.
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6. Combination of metaverse scenes vertically and horizontally
The previous article mentioned that if dolls are added up and down inside the chain game project, the life cycle of the game can be extended. This is currently the most cost-effective economic model correction solution. In Gua Tians view, the nesting doll scheme is still in the category of skills. So is there a better solution that can rise to the category of Tao? It is recommended to try the Metaverse scene and the NFT-centric model.
Since Facebook changed its name to Meta in 2021, the metaverse concept has caught peoples attention, making everyone feel that the scene in Ready Player One is not far away, and that future life is a combination of the real world and the virtual world. Gua Tian is not an expert in Metaverse, so I won’t discuss it here. However, based on the analysis of the chain game economic model, the Metaverse scene is undoubtedly a more optimal choice than the project’s nesting doll mechanism: it extends the nesting doll mechanism within the project to outside the project. This creates a vertical and horizontal effect between projects and forms a new symbiotic network, so that the life cycle of a single project will be extended by the support of other projects.
You may have seen such a scene in the movie: ice and snow are flying, and a caravan is advancing on the mountain road close to the cliff. In order to prevent individuals from accidentally slipping off the cliff, everyone is tied together with a rope. In this way, even if one person accidentally slips, the strength of the other dozen or so people can stop him from falling.
Its the same reasoning in the Metaverse scene, lets give a few cases according to the old habit. Gala, which is popular all year round, claims to be a chain game Steam. Its confidence comes from two points: first, Gala tokens can be empowered in all games, such as buying NFT; second, NFT of all games can It is universal on the platform (I am still skeptical about the actual implementation of this point. If it is not a game developed by Gala, but an external franchise game, how can other games accept his NFT?).
In this way, two points can be deduced: As long as the Gala platform continues to add games, Gala tokens will always be empowered; as long as the Gala platform exists, the NFT in a single game can enjoy permanent value on the platform, even if it is a single The tokens in the game are gone, and the NFT in each game will always exist on the platform, and its value depends on the consensus of the players.
The design of Gala is very ideal. Although the performance of Gala currency price in the real world is not as strong as everyone imagined, it is at least alive, and many single-item games in the same period have disappeared. At present, the playability of Town Star and Spider Tank on Gala is above average. Unfortunately, the development progress is slow. Maybe the founding team made a lot of money in the Gamefi climax in 2021 last year. Why should they work so hard to develop Yes, this is normal human nature.
To give another example, the old-fashioned StepN launched a private server-like event some time ago in the precarious days. The core point is: welcome all kinds of StepN imitation disk developers, as well as those who want to start a business in the upstream and downstream of StepN. Friends, let’s start a project on StepN and share 700,000 daily active users. However, your project must use my family’s GMT token, and you have to undertake the selling pressure of GMT with me. Let’s get together in the metaverse and get what we need .
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7. Classification of metaverse chain games and NFT-centered economic model
Well, the benefits of the metaverse scene for the chain game economic model are all understood, so how to implement it? Up to now, there should be no successful metaverse chain game economic model in the market. Guadain Lab is also developing several ideas, one of which is most recognized by the project party: to take token economics as the leading The economic model is transformed into an NFT-led economic model, because NFT comes with three characteristics of strong asset precipitation, poor liquidity, and high plasticity.
Let’s start with the classification. The NFTs in the Metaverse project can be divided into three categories:
The PFP class represents the community consensus and the visualization of virtual characters. In many projects, players basically use this type of PFP as a passcard to enter Metaverse products. There will be a problem, and we will talk about it later;
The land category represents the main base of the player in the game, and it is easiest to guide the player to generate a consensus that this type of NFT is the most valuable in the game. Think about where the wealth of the urban middle class is concentrated in the real world;
Items, similar to clothing and food, for consumption, players with money will spend money to buy them, and those without money will wait until they have money to buy them.
At present, the most eye-catching NFTs in the NFT market are all PFP types, such as BAYC and Azuki. Because the metaverse chain game scene has not yet started, we can only expand the social attributes by relying on the avatar class. You are a monkey and I am a Red Dou, its a pleasure to meet you, everyone is rich, and Maslows first need is a sense of recognition. But in terms of the plasticity in the metaverse scene, the land NFT undoubtedly surpasses the PFP, which can empower countless: design, planning, advertising, architectural form, use function, etc., can play a lot of tricks. Therefore, the idea of the metaverse economic model of Guatian is mainly built around the land NFT as the center.
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The first category: those who control the time
Cases are Decentraland and Sandbox, both of which debuted early, and each has a rich father (Grayscale and Animoca), and they will also make a lot of money in the bull market in 2021. For example, Sandbox is crazy about selling land.
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The second category: Those who master the geographical advantage
The most important thing about real estate in the real world is location, location, location, which is Li Ka-shings famous saying. The location is determined by landmarks, such as China World Trade Center in Beijing, Oriental Pearl Tower in Shanghai, and Century Park in New York. The land next to these landmarks is the most valuable.
What are the landmarks in the Metaverse project? It is an item with high playability in the scene, an item that can gather popularity, and an item that allows players to get something cool. If there are one or two such projects in the metaverse scene, it is regarded as having a geographical advantage. Players can rest assured when they come in to buy virtual land, because it is more valuable than other metaverse scenes.
Chain games are the project type most likely to have a geographical advantage in the Metaverse scene, because compared to other project scenes, such as exhibition halls, hospitals, schools, trading markets, etc., games are born with the traffic of Web2 gamers, and Web3 It can also enable decentralized storage of player assets. As long as the game is fun and easy to enter the circle, it is only a matter of time before Web2 players enter. Gua Tian predicts that the first metaverse project that can really catch on will be a game that is full of players.
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The third category: those who master Renhe
The case is clear, the Monkey Metaverse that Yuga Labs is building. His family entered the metaverse track relying on the top status of NFT. In the past few months, it issued coins and sold land, and is developing Otherside games at the same time. The feature is that it is born with player traffic, which can be compared to the resources of the Wenzhou real estate speculators in the real world. This kind of project has someone with a gun, and it currently has the most advantage among these three types of land sales projects.
Therefore, in general, Renhe projects are most likely to succeed in the short term, and talent is the primary productive force in the encryption circle; Geographical advantage projects depend on the quality of the game, and fun projects can also gather popularity; Tianshi projects have a bright future Unfathomable, unless the mastermind behind the scenes keeps milking.
Going back to the construction of the metaverse economic model, as mentioned above, Gua Tian believes that this type of economic model should be designed with the land NFT as the center. In addition to the strong plasticity of the land NFT, there is also the fact that if the PFP NFT is used as a Passcard, it will There is a dilemma: if the model is built with it as the center, the rising price of NFT will prevent more players from playing, and fewer and fewer players will enter, and this metaverse scene will come to an end. This is why I guess that if Yuga Labs wants to create a metaverse, their Passcard will not use the monkey family as tickets, because the audience is too small.
Guatian’s metaverse economic model A module is as follows: the entry threshold is low, and you don’t even need to buy a PFP-type avatar as a passcard first. You can come in and play after registering an account. Everyone is born equal and free; after entering the scene, you can trade, Games, gambling, exhibitions, etc. get the wealth in the Metaverse world (which can be converted into tokens). After the comprehensive ability reaches a certain stage, the system will directly distribute PFP NFTs of different levels to you, and the class will start to be generated; follow-up The opportunity for players entering the metaverse to overtake in a corner must not solidify the hierarchy and allow the poor to continue to produce precious children. This is an important prerequisite for the self-iteration of the metaverse scene.
Some players said, I have a rich father, that is, I have money, so why cant I be fooled in the metaverse from the very beginning? Dont worry, isnt there a metaverse economic model B module? It is the land NFT mentioned above. Rich players can bid for this kind of NFT. The free market economy is the master. The model here is to guide the flow of tokens to the land NFT, and try to lock the highly liquid tokens into the land NFT, so that the land NFT becomes an asset deposit. Will that make certain land NFTs overvalued? No problem, the price of land in Manhattan and Alaska is also very different, the invisible hand of the market can adjust it by itself.
The last C-type metaverse economic model module is the item NFT, which encourages players to consume and spend the tokens! Want to add a bikini to your PFP NFT? buy it! Want to speed up your access to other metaverse scenarios? Get a Laborghini! Want to get straight into the cash games of Texas Hold Em without the lines? Into a VIP diamond card ah!
Imagine that you enter a metaverse scene, first enter an MMOPRG game naked to fight monsters, and after leveling up and obtaining a PFP NFT; then go to a 4D cinema hand in hand with the young lady you just met to watch a movie, and solve the problem in the movie. The three mysteries of the three puzzles were rewarded with tokens; took the tokens to the casino, and made a lot of money by virtue of their superb Texas holdem skills; went to the auction house to buy a potential land NFT, and entered the second The business development game opened a restaurant and a car repair shop, and you also became a powerful person in this plane. One day an easter egg hits you, and Trinitti from The Matrix came to you and took out two pills for you to choose. You snatched both of them in a daze and swallowed them all, and found yourself turning into a Super Saiyan , standing next to Iron Man, asked if you want to fight Thanos together, and said that the seven gourd babies would also come together, and then there was a problem with the coordinates in the process of traveling through the black hole of time and space, and fell into Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry , bumped into her childhood dream lover Hermione...
Just playing around like this, the highly liquid tokens in the Metaverse either precipitated into asset-type NFTs, or transformed into consumer-type NFTs to increase the game experience, and the Ponzi model was corrected. The project party can also set up a central bank similar to the Federal Reserve through the DAO treasury to adjust the relationship between various currencies in the metaverse. After the Great Recession, the recovery period is Keynesian, and after entering the stable and prosperous period, Hayek is a little bit.
To sum up, the superimposition of various scenes in the metaverse world may give players a more immersive experience than the nesting dolls of different types of gameplay and copies in a single game, and it is getting farther and farther away from Ponzi. The NFT-centered economic model should replace the current token-centered economic model and is more suitable for metaverse scenarios. The construction should not only allow ordinary players to enter the field, reflecting fairness (high-value PFP NFT is not suitable for passcard); but also allow players of different levels and wealth to feel a sense of personalized experience, reflecting freedom.
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8. What is a game model?
Finally, I have written the most interesting and biggest chapter of Guadain. For players who like to play strategy games, they should also like to study game models, because it burns their brains. The most famous case of the game model is the Prisoners Dilemma:
The two criminals who conspired were locked in two rooms, and the police set a condition: if neither of them denounced the other, each would only serve one year in prison; Released, the silent one gets ten years in prison for non-cooperation; if they expose each other, both get eight years in prison. Due to the ugliness of human nature, two people cannot trust each other without complete information. They both feel that if I show loyalty and the other party stabs me in the back, then I am not an idiot? So most of the results are that two people tend to expose each other instead of keeping silent.
This is actually in line with what Satoshi Nakamoto said in the Bitcoin white paper, there is no need for trust between people, just rely on code contracts (trustless). Therefore, from the above Prisoners Dilemma case, in addition to simply considering the mathematical probability theory, it is more about the emotions, the environment and the character of the players in the game to influence the final decision. This is the most fun point of game games . The OHM (3,3) in Defi before also applied the model of the prisoner’s dilemma, but only joined the consensus mechanism. Once a few users were selling in the follow-up, everyone was unwilling to be a fool and sold it.
Going back to chain games, when Gua Tian gave lessons to his friends before, he proposed that chain games can be classified according to three different dimensions, and the third dimension is divided into inflation and game.
Inflation is the kind of dual-token model represented by Axie. The more players come in, the more tokens will be distributed. For example, one player successfully gets 100 tokens, and ten players get 1000 tokens. Prices change with inflation. Therefore, this type of model will accumulate more and more tokens in the market for a long period of time at the beginning, and the project party can only use centralized control schemes, or repurchase and destruction, or increase consumption scenarios to curb inflation. Therefore, it is more difficult for project owners who adopt this type of model to comfortably make the game system run like a casino, and make money by pumping water while lying comfortably. The characteristics of the model determine that you have to struggle with token inflation and player selling pressure. StepN is an example. As long as the transaction volume is active, pumping can make a lot of money, but it will be very tiring to operate. The project party feels that it has to compete with all players. Dirty water was poured on the project party.
Is there any way for the project party to comfortably pump money? Yes, it is another type of model that is different from the inflation type: the game type. ** If a stable game-based model can be established to allow players to play with each other, players who play well can earn money from players who play poorly, and don’t come to the project party to make money. Is it okay? ** The project party is the big steward, who provides services to you guys, if you make money, cheer and cheer; if you lose money, comfort and encourage, and then just pump water according to a percentage to make money, and the income will be guaranteed in drought and flood.
Easier said than done. The W Labs team has seen a lot of chain games. There may be 100 projects on the market, and it would be great if there are 2-3 projects that use game models. Why? Let me first talk about the difficulties of making game games:
The value setting of the in-game system must be accurate. If it is unbalanced, it is easy to have a situation of one person eats 99 people. The 99 people just leave the game cursing, and the one who made money also left the game because of the exposure of the gameplay. , players lose fast;
These values need to be fine-tuned according to the market sentiment, the number of players, the players style of play, etc., and there must be a team similar to actuaries in the background to support;
Gaming games are generally slow to heat up, and the bull-bear transition in the encryption circle is too fast, and the market will change before the game is hatched.
Let me talk about the benefits of game games:
When the number of players reaches a certain stage, it can run on its own, and there is no need to rely on the growth rate of new players to maintain it like the inflation model! This is crucial! In several previous articles of Guatian, it has been emphasized that mutations and assistance such as matryoshka can only delay the life cycle of inflationary games, and game models may not need to rely on the entry of new players to support them. The model of old players cut off new players can be transformed into strong players cut off weak players, but the weak can become strong after learning and hard work, and the new can never surpass the old.
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9. How to do the game model?
Games are so tempting, arent they? So why are there so few such games on the market? It is still driven by profit: Everyone is thinking about making short-term money. Wouldn’t it be good to set up an imitation market in 1-2 months to harvest a wave? Therefore, no one is willing to do projects that really need to spend time and energy, but can make money for a long time.
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The first category: Xiao Gui Cao Sui category
As the name suggests, some game games that have matured in WEB2 are directly moved into WEB3, and the original game system and gameplay are not changed. Take the Texas Holdem mentioned above as an example, the chain reform can only add one token, the output is based on the PVP ranking rewards or prize pool rewards, and the consumption is based on various scenarios of game entry (high cash game tickets) , prize pool tickets and private custom club fees) demand, after the two are relatively balanced, making money depends on the rake in the game.
The Xiao Gui Cao Sui game itself is very fun, and the chain reform can be simpler, or even just move the settlement system to the chain. The project can make full use of the IP of the original game and a large audience. Whoever builds the moat of the project as soon as possible will win. For example, in Texas Holdem, whoever can be the first to become the PokerStar of WEB3 will win all.
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The second category, flat land and tall buildings
This type of game is to establish an entire game-like system out of thin air, allowing players to play in it. The third part of the series of long articles The Secret of the Chain Game Economic Model that has been completed before, Explanation of the Variation Model (https://mirror.xyz/iamwgg.eth/Ioc6qbQUYAlBMjxhPnVDkMCTndH7CYy5xtCvu0qlo8c）
There is an early case Wolf and Sheep Game, which is the pioneering work of game chain games.
Wolf sheep rose up in the bull market last year, and the popularity quickly exploded, but it also dropped quickly, because everyone found out that being a wolf is the most enjoyable, and making money quickly can crush sheep. This is the problem mentioned above. , the values are unbalanced, and a few people eat up the profits of the vast majority, so the wolf sheep game collapses very quickly.
Later, some games used the game type, which were basically imitations, and Wolf Sheep 2 did not work, until Guada discovered Betamars. From the perspective of the model alone, it was the game type that Guatian liked to simulate society; more importantly, the game The two parties in the world: the lord and the miners, both have countermeasures against each other. It is not just that one side suppresses the other; the lord and the miners have also divided themselves into two camps through development: the big lord VS the small lord; the miner leader VS ordinary miners, four-party game, after analysis, there is a feeling of infernal affairs. (For specific project introduction, please refer to the video released by Guatian before:https://youtu.be/HhMMk1WTGIM）。
It is a pity that the biggest problem with the first version of Betamars is that it takes too long before entering the most interesting deep game (Great Revolution), and players have to wait more than ten days to taste the game model The essence of it is not suitable for current chain game players. This is also the reason why his game decided not to go online for the time being after five rounds of internal testing, and continue to develop the second version: to use the newly developed Odaily business development and adventure game modules to fill in more than a dozen of the first version. The blank period of the sky is actually a kind of adding dolls that Gua Tian mentioned before.
This leads to a question that can be explored in depth: When does the game module of the game need to start? Like Wolf and Sheep, there is not much pre-preparation, the value has been set, and it is done immediately. It is likely to be thousands of kings in the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, short and brilliant; At the beginning, the enthusiasm of players faded away, such as the first version of Betamars. After all, it is difficult for the encryption circle to produce the artistic conception of the years are quiet and good.
I believe that what players like is similar to crossing cool texts, starting from a young age, or starting from a weak, step by step cultivation, leveling up, fighting monsters, and then achieving dominance. If Fan Xian in Celebrating More Than Years first appeared in his childhood , It directly reached the stage of reciting a hundred poems in one night, and it is estimated that readers will not feel refreshed.
Therefore, for gaming chain games, Guadatian’s suggestion should not be just for gaming, but should be equipped with a pre-development system, so that players can feel that the success of subsequent games is closely related to their previous training and operation. Still take the classic Texas Holdem as an example. If the game rule is that each player is dealt five cards, and then the bets are larger or smaller, then the playability will be greatly weakened. The rule of Texas Holdem is to lay out round after round, startling at every step, from drawing cards, flopping cards, turning cards to winning cards, each step can be folded, checked or bet, and each step should be made according to the strength of the cards and the size of the pot Decision-making, the decision-making of each step must be consistent with the story of the upper and lower steps, and even each step must observe the opponents performance, facial expressions, actions, words, etc...
Therefore, it is strongly recommended that the game model of flat land and tall buildings should be linked with other modules to make Lego, so as to give full play to the playability of the game model. For specific operations, please refer to the horizontal in the third article of this series. Matryoshka and vertical dolls. Pave the way with dolls to make the game climax.
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10. The future is bright, but the road is bumpy
Another series of long articles is coming to an end. Gua Tian chooses one day a week to create original works. While summarizing the modeling work of several projects at hand, he shakes the things in his head and shakes out 20,000 words , others vibrate, I vibrate text.
Guada is optimistic about the development of chain games in the next year, because from the quality of some games that W Labs is testing internally and the rationality of the model, Gua Tian judges that sooner or later there will be one or two hit games in the market, driving chain games to enter 2.0 In this era, its popularity should be no less than that of Axie, which pioneered Play to Earn at the end of 2020. Of course, the cooperation of the market is still needed. If BTC falls from 20000U to 10000U, it will be delayed.
In general, blockchain games 2.0 that can be played in the future can make breakthroughs in the following aspects:
First of all, it should be based on games with high quality and strong playability, and stop fooling people with card games;
Then in the economic model, the setting of values, the linking of modules, the adoption of nesting dolls, the matching of mutations and auxiliary should be a whole, and at the same time, the token flow guides liquidity to NFT;
Furthermore, if the chain game can be placed in a large metaverse scene, its NFT assets or main tokens should be able to interact or support other scenes in the metaverse;
Finally, in the gameplay of the game, the game model with the strongest gameplay can be properly introduced to let the players roll up, and turn the original old players cutting off new players into the strong players cutting off weak players that everyone admires. .
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XI. Postscript: Economic Models and Strange Talks of Chinese Dynasties
After finishing this new series of long articles last week, Gua Tian decided to stop writing for a while, because he felt more and more that it was too challenging to build a perfect, long-term effective economic model system. Doing this is a bit like helping a new country establish a financial system and a monetary system. It will take time to find another way, and it is likely to imitate others if you use it.
Lets imagine a scenario: the establishment of a WEB3 game with its own economic system is equivalent to the establishment of a new empire. The project party is the emperor, and the investment institution is the generals and counselors (new nobles) who follow the ruler to fight the world. The first The first batch of old players are the local gentry or retired soldiers who bet on the right bets. The later players are ordinary people. Everyone is full of expectations from the beginning and looks forward to the arrival of the new era. Can enjoy the life you want.
What keeps the whole system running is the finance and currency of the empire. Finance is how the country spends the money it receives, and currency is the lubricant in operation. Judging from the two thousand years of imperial history of Chinese civilization, the economic model established at the beginning of a dynasty has basically determined the reasons for the final decline of the dynasty:
1. The Great Qin Empire was only three generations old, and his family had no economic model at all. It was military-first politics. The whole country was farming and fighting, and farming was for war, but after the world was settled, how could there be so many wars to fight? The finances cannot keep up, so the death spiral is the fastest;
2. The Western Han Dynasty is worth studying. The ruffian Liu Bang overthrew the prefecture and county system of the Great Qin Dynasty and brought back the enfeoffment system of the Zhou Dynasty. However, the difference from the Western Zhou Dynasty is that he entrusted his sons to go to various places. Unfortunately, after two or three generations, no one I dont know anyone anymore, everyones surname is Liu, why cant I be the emperor. Fortunately, Liu Bang started his business in middle age. He was already 54 years old when he became emperor, and he died early. The successor Wenjing Zhizhi is an economic model of inaction. Everything is left to the market, and taxes are light and slow. Sometimes I have a big brain hole. If the rule of Wenjing continues, will the germination of capitalism appear in the East 1000 years in advance? Its a pity that there was a talented and bold Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty who fought everywhere. When the country was poor, he invented the state-owned enterprises and the monopoly system, and competed with the people for profit.
3. Wang Mang is the boss of a group of Confucian keyboard warriors. He said he wanted to reform, and dozens of currencies were released! Each of them stipulates detailed exchange. Can you imagine that there are 30 kinds of tokens in a chain game system from the beginning? Wang Mangs New Deal made the people return to the primitive economic system of bartering, so his family soon collapsed.
4. The Eastern Han Dynasty came, Emperor Guangwu Liu Xiu of the Han Dynasty was a good emperor, he did not kill heroes, he had no big ambitions, his greatest wish was to marry a beautiful woman Yin Lihua as his wife, and then his job was to stand guard in Tiananmen Square in fresh clothes and furious horses. The biggest problem in the Eastern Han Dynasty was that the clansmen who supported Liu Xiu were too powerful, and the economic model was a situation where the imperial power and the nobles were at both ends. It’s similar to the fact that investment institutions in chain games are too powerful, and they insist on returning control in the project every day, which leads the project party to introduce more investment institutions or other forces (relatives or eunuchs) in the follow-up round of financing to make them fight. At the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, General He Jin, the representative of foreign relatives, fought among the eunuchs and represented the ten permanent servants, and introduced the separatist warlord Dong Zhuo, which opened the prelude to the Three Kingdoms.
5. The Three Kingdoms after the Eastern Han Dynasty, the Eastern and Western Jin Dynasties, and the five chaotic Chinas will not go into details. There is no economic model, but power grows out of the barrel of a gun. The only thing worthy of praise is that Cao Cao knows the importance of the economic model better than other warlords, and there must be a stable source of income and food, so he invented the farming system and Mojin Xiaowei. The war burned Yuan Shaos food and grass-heavy Wuchao.
6. The Sui Dynasty ended the chaos of China, but died in the second generation. Emperor Sui Yang was very powerful, but he was in a hurry. He squeezed what could be done in 50 years into 10 years. The second generation of the prodigal emperor. Cousin Tang Gaozu Li Yuan inherited the country. Let’s focus on the Tang Dynasty, which is the 3,000-year glorious peak of Chinese civilization. How did Li Yuan build the economic model at the beginning? His idea is the contract system, sending officials out to manage the local area, and giving your team a sum of money and land. You can find a way to revitalize the local economy and pay taxes to the central government, so that the enthusiasm of ordinary officials will be revitalized at once. up! It’s like a metaverse scene, where casinos, exchanges, and RPG games are all contracted out. Moreover, Tang Taizong Li Shimin also established a special department similar to the US State Administration of Taxation + Chinas local urban investment: the central government specially found a group of people with business acumen and asked them to lend usury, of course they must be withdrawn. These are the Zhenguan Reigns and Kaiyuan Prosperity that began in the Tang Dynasty.
However, there is still a problem that cannot be solved, that is, the dynasty is passed down from generation to generation, and the emperor may have only one, but there are more and more officials. During the reign of Tang Taizong Li Shimin, there were only more than 700 officials in the whole country, and the finances were easy to support; There are more than 40,000 officials in China, not to mention the privileged class that each generation of officials has settled down. The fiscal revenue is not enough to support these people. Putting it in the chain game means that there are more and more old players, and the entrance fee for new players is not enough. At this time, the later emperors could only make Li Yuans method a little more ruthless, and tell the officials sent to the local area, I have no money for you, you take care of yourself, and I will give you a creation. Jiedushi NFT, hold this NFT, you can open Yajianfu. So Jiedushi appeared. After NFT was issued indiscriminately, the separatist regimes in the middle and late Tang Dynasty were formed in this way.
7. After the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms in the late Tang Dynasty, the Northern Song Dynasty appeared. This was a rich but weak dynasty. Song Taizu witnessed the tragedy of the separatist regime at the end of the Tang Dynasty, so he tried his best to limit the development of generals, so the Northern Song Dynasty could not fight, and the border was the smallest. Yes, according to the logic that the less the land, the less the taxation, the less fiscal revenue, the Northern Song Dynasty should not be so rich. But the Northern Song Dynasty has some unique skills, that is, his family’s token economics is good. The world’s first type of banknote Jiaozi appeared, which is a transaction NFT, and asset NFTs such as Yanyin also appeared; Increased interaction with other scenes in the metaverse: trade with northern barbarians and Nanyang tycoons to make a lot of money, and at the same time make a lot of money in business taxes.
8. A lot of money was exposed in the Northern Song Dynasty, and the economic model and shareholding structure were unbalanced, so they were favored by the northern nations Liao and Jin. Here, regardless of whether men or women dance with bare buttocks, this is the Shame of Jingkang. Here, it only took four years from Fengheng Yuda at the peak of prosperity in the Northern Song Dynasty to Shame of Jingkang. The later Southern Song Dynasty was actually pretty good. The economic model was inherited from the Northern Song Dynasty, and there were several famous generals such as Yue Fei. Unfortunately, when the Mongols finally came, no one could stop them.
9. The economic model of the Yuan Dynasty belongs to the above who don’t understand anything, and you play by yourself below. Anyway, the territory is large, and everyone shows their talents. Instead, Zhu Yuanzhang, the patriarch of the Ming Dynasty, overthrew the Yuan Dynasty and took over the world. He restricted thinking, closed the country, had a single economic model, and only relied on land tax for fiscal revenue. The GDP was the worst among all dynasties. Because of the limited IQ inherited from the old Zhu’s family, he didn’t study hard and read more books. Several emperors grew up fighting crickets and doing carpentry. The wealth that they don’t understand trade can bring more than land, so foreigners came to China. When doing business, the Ming Dynasty will treat it as a tribute. If you pay tribute, I will reward you several times generously to show the prestige of the great power of the Celestial Dynasty. This kind of weird logic actually led to several battles with Japan and the northern grassland people in the late Ming Dynasty, because the Ming Dynasty did not allow these people to pay tribute, and there was no money to reward them, so the opposite side was angry: there is still no way to let people Tribute, you despise me, Ill kill you!
10. The Ming Dynasty died because the economic model was too simple, just like the income of the project party in the chain game only comes from the transaction tax. The initial 1% can be set at the end of the Chongzhen Dynasty, and it is estimated to be almost 70%. Players can Dont you rebel? Not to mention Li Zicheng, the wandering army. The first few emperors in the Qing Dynasty were all good emperors. Unfortunately, what they inherited was the closed-door economic model of the Ming Dynasty, because his family was also confused when they conquered the country and conquered Beijing. The later regent Dorgon was still ready to pack up and go back to his hometown in the Northeast at any time. Unexpectedly, the surrendered Ming Dynasty army suddenly rejuvenated, their fighting power exploded, and they directly pacified the south for the new master. It was only in the middle of the Qing Dynasty that the economic model began to be slowly revised. It is a pity that you are still thinking about how to optimize the Gamefi1.0 model. The chain game 2.0 brought about by the British Industrial Revolution has already directly crushed you. One is still playing minesweeping, one Its already a World of Warcraft, how do you fight? This is how the century of humiliation in the late Qing Dynasty began.
Later, modern history will not be written indiscriminately, and I dare not understand it.
A postscript has written so much in a mess, which fully reflects the messy thoughts in my head. Next, we will map some ideas to the actual operation of the blockchain game model and ask a few questions:
1. What is the focus of the metaverse model and the economic model of the single game model?
2. How can NFT play a better role?
3. It is estimated that dual tokens are not enough, how to design the control token?
4. What does the point system that everyone is talking about represent? How to embed?
5. The treasury representing the central bank is very important, how to collect it? How much? how to use?
6. What is the path of leverage regulation? How to obtain regulatory targets at a low cost?
In the follow-up, I hope that heroes from all walks of life can join in the discussion, and you can find us in private messages on Twitter or in the Discord community. Novel ideas and practical ideas are likely to take root in the wild era.
This time it is really the end of the full text.
Welcome to reprint, originality is not easy, please indicate Guadain Laboratory W Labs produced
Welcome to reprint, originality is not easy, please indicate Guadain Laboratory W Labs produced
The beta version of the Guadatian laboratory website:https://discord.gg/wggdao
Melon Field Lab Twitter:https://twitter.com/GuaTianGuaTian
The in-depth research of Guadain Laboratory Mirror:https://mirror.xyz/iamwgg.eth
Melon Field Laboratory Medium:https://guatianwgg.medium.com/
The beta version of the Guadatian laboratory website:http://wggdao.com/
