According to the latest analysis report from crypto analytics firm Nansen, as of the end of June, nearly one million investors had incurred total losses of approximately $3.81 billion from investments in Trump-related meme coins. Nansen's analysis indicates that the trading mechanism of these tokens allows Trump to profit regardless of whether the price rises or falls, as his revenue primarily comes from transaction fees and ongoing market trading activity. Additionally, the repeated promotion of these tokens on the social platform Truth Social has further amplified trading volumes.
Data shows that during the 2024 campaign, Trump pivoted from being a "crypto skeptic" to embracing the commercial opportunities of digital assets. He co-founded the crypto project World Liberty Financial with his children, and the $WLFI token they issued has also experienced significant declines. Furthermore, the TRUMP token, launched just days before his inauguration, has been described as a "speculative asset lacking real utility" and has already undergone a notable price correction. (New York Times)
Odaily reported that "White Hair Stock God" Serenity stated that when he first used ChatGPT in 2023, he believed large language models "performed poorly" in programming capabilities. However, three years later, the related technology has undergone a qualitative transformation. Modern cybersecurity and AI systems, represented by Mythos, now possess "weapon-level" capabilities. He believes the industry is currently entering a critical "inflection point," where humanoid robots and automation technologies are approaching the tipping point for large-scale replacement of human labor.
Serenity noted that although outsiders often question whether humanoid robots can currently perform complex tasks such as pipe repair or electrical wiring, the direction of technological evolution is already very clear, with continued breakthroughs expected in the coming years. Market participants, including VCs and large tech companies, have begun adjusting their strategies. Some companies have internal plans to replace a significant amount of human labor with robots to reduce operational costs, referencing previous rumors about Amazon reducing hundreds of thousands of job openings through robotics.
Serenity believes that highly regulated industries such as healthcare, ultra-high-skill professional positions, and service sectors relying on human emotional connections may still retain some resistance to substitution. However, the overall trend still points towards a "restructuring of labor." As competition between China and the U.S. intensifies in cutting-edge technology fields, humanoid robots and automation may enter a stage of national-level technological competition. He believes China already holds a leading position in certain areas.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.
Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.
Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
Odaily Odaily reports that CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has exhibited a distinct "diminishing capital efficiency" characteristic across its bull and bear market cycles. As the asset's scale expands, the price increase driven by each unit of new capital continues to decline:
In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows propelled Bitcoin up by roughly 55,000%;
In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion corresponded to about a 10,000% increase;
In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion corresponded to about a 2,000% increase;
Since 2022, the current cycle has attracted approximately $697 billion in capital, yet the price increase is roughly 689%.
The data is based on "Realized Capitalization," which values each coin at its last moving price, serving as an approximate measure of actual capital inflows. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that if Bitcoin is to experience another parabolic rally, it may require over $1 trillion in new capital inflows, further solidifying its status as a macro asset rather than merely an ETF-driven trading asset.
Ki Young Ju also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net capital outflows, indicating that market structural demand is still in a transition phase. Analysis suggests this trend reflects a natural decline in Bitcoin's marginal returns as its market capitalization grows. Unless larger-scale institutional capital steps in to absorb supply, it will be difficult for high-multiple growth to replicate the performance of earlier cycles. (CoinDesk)
According to data, in the first half of the year, Korean investors invested a total of $2.819 billion to snap up Chinese assets through both individual stocks and ETFs: A-share purchases surged by 130.55% year-on-year, with NAURA Technology Group and Cambricon Technologies leading the buying spree. In Hong Kong stocks, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) and MiniMax saw the highest purchase volumes. A Standard Chartered Bank analyst stated bluntly that overseas capital's attitude towards Chinese assets "has fundamentally changed." Among them, semiconductor equipment company NAURA Technology Group topped the purchase list at approximately $33.94 million, followed by Cambricon Technologies ($27.28 million), with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) ($12.54 million) ranking third.
Beyond semiconductors, Korean capital is also spreading to a broader range of computing infrastructure, including servers, data centers, and power and network support. (National Business Daily)
Odaily reported that the Major County Sheriffs of America (MCSA), in a letter to U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Senator Elizabeth Warren, stated that after some of its concerns regarding Section 604 of the bill were addressed, it has shifted its stance on the CLARITY Act to "neutral." Section 604, concerning the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, aims to protect developers from liability for illegal activities conducted by users on their decentralized platforms. The MCSA had previously stated that Section 604 could provide loopholes for criminals to exploit, making it more difficult for law enforcement to investigate crypto-related crimes. The MCSA indicated that it still hopes the CLARITY Act will amend Section 309 to include state law enforcement agencies. This section requires the U.S. Treasury Department to study decentralized finance and illicit finance risks. (Cointelegraph).
Odaily reports that Open Standard, the consortium behind Open USD, has been accused of listing companies such as Samsung Electronics as supporters of the OUSD stablecoin project without their consent.
Tony Chung, Head of Blockmedia’s BD division, stated that Samsung Electronics said no formal discussions had taken place and that it was unclear what role it would play in the project.
Shinhan, Dunamu, and K Bank stated that Open Standard had inquired about their interest in participating, and they merely indicated they would "consider" it, only to later find their names listed as consortium members.
Tether advisor Gabor Gurbacs noted that some of the listed partners claimed they had never signed or agreed to anything.
Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire commented, "Integrity matters." OUSD is expected to launch later this year. (Bitcoin.com News).
Odaily Odaily News, Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn stated that the capital management reforms recently launched by Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) have effectively eased market concerns over its liquidity and preferred stock system pressure in the short term. However, he noted these measures are more about "buying time" rather than fundamentally resolving structural issues.
Over the past few weeks, Strategy has faced pressure on its "Digital Credit" preferred stock system. Its STRC ("Stretch" preferred shares) fell below par value, hitting a low of approximately $71.25, raising market concerns about Bitcoin price declines, shrinking dollar reserves, and the company's ability to pay preferred stock dividends. Subsequently, market discussions focused on three stress scenarios: selling Bitcoin, issuing additional MSTR shares (diluting existing shareholders), or cutting/suspending preferred stock dividends.
In response, Strategy announced a comprehensive capital management restructuring on Monday, introducing a "Digital Credit Capital Framework." This includes five key tools: a board-approved dollar reserve policy, an adjustment to the STRC dividend mechanism, a $1 billion preferred stock buyback authorization, a $1 billion MSTR common stock buyback authorization, and a Bitcoin monetization mechanism. Concurrently, the company increased the annualized dividend rate on STRC from 11.5% to 12%.
The market reacted positively, with both MSTR and STRC seeing significant gains that day, and Bitcoin also rebounded alongside.
Alex Thorn pointed out that this adjustment has improved market sentiment in the short term, extending Strategy's cash coverage cycle to approximately 17 months and enhancing its capital buffer through new financing. However, the company still faces approximately $6.7 billion in convertible bond maturities during 2027-2028, meaning long-term structural risks persist. The core issue is not whether Strategy holds enough Bitcoin (approximately 847,000 BTC), but rather that its dollar liquidity is insufficient to cover preferred stock and capital structure obligations without harming the interests of any party, leading to a squeeze between different classes of shareholders.
Nonetheless, the key significance of this adjustment lies in enhancing the "optionality" of the company's capital tools. It shifts Strategy from a single-direction Bitcoin accumulation strategy towards a more proactive asset-liability management model, thereby preventing short-term liquidity issues from evolving into a systemic crisis. Although the current Bitcoin market environment is relatively weak and may not have bottomed out yet, Strategy's new framework has, to some extent, bought the company a window of time to wait for more favorable market conditions.
Odaily, Tobias Adrian, Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that as assets migrate to shared digital ledgers, policy choices regarding the monetary system, market infrastructure, and legal frameworks will determine whether tokenization strengthens the integration of the financial system or leads to further fragmentation.
The tokenized economy is forming three types of settlement assets: tokenized bank deposits, stablecoins, and tokenized central bank reserves. Tokenization is not just about faster payments or programmable assets; it involves migrating financial assets and liabilities to a unified ledger, compressing execution, clearing, and settlement into a synchronized process driven by software. This shift may also transfer risks from the balance sheets of traditional intermediaries to platforms, code, and infrastructure providers. (The Block)
Odaily Odaily reports that against the backdrop of sustained capital outflows from US institutions, Bitcoin whales have accumulated over 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion) in the past two weeks, forming a clear divergence with record outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Analysts point out that this phased divergence exhibits historical cyclical characteristics: while institutional funds are withdrawing, long-term holders and whale accounts continue to accumulate, similar to the capital redistribution structure commonly seen near previous cycle bottoms. On-chain data shows that although the spot premium remains negative, indicating spot buying pressure is not strong, large wallets continue to accumulate Bitcoin. The market is currently in a structural phase of "institutional deleveraging, long-term capital accumulation." (CoinDesk)
Odaily reported that 10x Research's analysis indicates that Bitcoin price volatility was initially triggered by stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, with ETF outflows also intensifying selling pressure. However, active buying by long-term holders helped the market establish price support. Additionally, weak employment data pushed market expectations for the next interest rate hike from October 2026 to December, providing some support for Bitcoin's short-term outlook. 10x Research added that historical data shows July has consistently been a strong month for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 9.1%. However, the market typically enters a consolidation phase from August to September, and September may become the cycle low. Bitcoin's recent rebound from $58,500 to $61,500 may be offering traders new positioning opportunities.
On the eve of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, sentiment in the crypto market is gradually stabilizing. Bitcoin is holding above $61,000, and Ethereum has climbed above $1,700, continuing the rebound from the previous day. The unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll data earlier had cooled market expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve, rekindling demand for risk assets. Volatility in the options market has notably declined, with short-term implied volatility falling from recent highs into the low 30s range, as market sentiment shifts from panic hedging to relative calm. However, some institutions believe the data is not a one-sided "dovish signal." Accelerating wages and resilient consumer spending still support the Fed in maintaining a hawkish stance. The divergence between U.S. Treasury yields and stock market performance further indicates lingering disagreement over the policy path. (The Block)
