Looking back on the complete valley peak valley encryption industry cycle from 2020 to 2022, the three new tracks of DEFI, NFT and chain games are dancing, among which the two most dazzling projects in the chain game track are the two projects Axie and StepN: Axie created the play to earn mode, which led to the climax of the small picture gold rush; and StepN took a slant after the decline of Axie, using the walk to earn light mode that is closer to the players real life to guide Players build consensus: In addition to making money in the game, you can also find cool points for gaining health.
Judging from the old player retention rate indicators and the actual effect of urging sports, StepN is indeed the first chain game with a breaking effect, and can even be evaluated as an excellent WEB3 product, so the track of X to Earn It suddenly emerged and became one of the most important modules in chain games.
StepN’s walking to earn money has spread all over the encryption circle, especially the “four-day payback” after the shoes are on the BNB Chain, which made the madness reach its peak. Various X to Earn projects emerge in endlessly. We also published a series of long articles at that time. Move to Earn track analysis, analyzed several StepN imitation disks, but before finishing writing, StepN began to ebb on the B chain, and the cooling speed was faster than our codeword speed, so we Its unfinished... Is the problem with the gameplay and operation of StepN? I don’t think so. The original sin is the dual-token model developed based on Axie. The underlying logic of this type of model leads to “Fomo succeeds and Fomo fails.” It can only be said that StepN’s attempts to break the circle and its hardworking team have made it The life cycle of the project is longer than that of other projects.
The X to Earn track is still a hot spot in the eyes of players and investment institutions, mainly because it can be out of the circle and it may be combined with real life. But if you think about it carefully, are the projects in X to Earn really homogeneous? How to classify from different angles? How to judge whether the project is good or bad from the perspective of investment logic? Gua Tian Lab always likes to be the first to eat crabs. We tried to establish a logical X to Earn classification system:
(1) Life application
According to the level of threshold for using the product on the client side (C side), we have established a life application standard, in which the product is to extract some of the actions that occur frequently in the players life, allowing you to earn while doing it. As a player, you have to do these actions. You use this kind of product while doing it, and then give you rewards as encouragement. I hope you can do better.
The life application category can be further subdivided into light-duty and heavy-duty categories. The light-loaded category means that this product can be played without purchasing other heavy-duty external equipment, and the entry threshold for C-end users is low. For example, Sleepagotchi (assuming that sleeping products do not need to purchase additional equipment separately, but directly use off-the-shelf equipment such as mobile phones or watches), individuals can sleep; such as StepN, as long as they have shoes, they can run.
Light-weight products currently appear to have two characteristics:
First, the lighter the product, the more audiences it has, and the greater the possibility of getting out of the circle. Investment institutions currently choose the projects of the X to Earn track that are as light as possible, such as Sleepagotchi. It is said that many institutions did not have a quota before they wanted to invest; Strong, that is to say, besides Earn, the other benefits that players get from this product are more obvious. For example, products in the category of reading books are the most important among light-packed products. People who love to read have already formed a private domain traffic, and they can use this product just for the hobby of reading. But as far as sleeping products are concerned, sleeping is not a hobby, but something that everyone must do, so this product needs to have another extra powerful function to empower it (besides making money).
Take the Sleepagotchi product as an example, it emphasizes the function of improving sleep, similar to SleepOn in WEB2. To be honest, if Sleepagotchi can really play such a function, not to mention that I can make money by using it, and I am willing to spend money to buy this product. It is the melatonin in WEB3. There is also the familiar running category StepN, which is heavier than the sleeping category and lighter than the skipping category and reading category, so it introduces the concept of running more to be healthy. It can be seen that the two projects, Sleepagotchi and Stepn, have a common positive and positive narrative: Sleepagotchi promotes a healthy routine (higher sleep quality and more falls), and Stepn promotes oneself to develop exercise habits (long running time The longer the period, the greater the income).
Here is a brief analysis of the recently popular Hook. It is the star product of Binance that launched IEO after holding back for 9 months. It belongs to the type of Learn to Earn. You can get rewards through questions and answers. From the perspective of product design logic, I personally don’t like it because:
First, the barriers to entry are very low, and everyone can answer questions. The point is, is answering questions necessary every day? This is not the same as sleeping and walking. Second, there is no cool point. Learning is anti-human, and liking leisure and hating work is the root of human nature, and can answering questions become a hobby like reading or running? You are not Xiaobawang repeater. Third, can users be encouraged to show off at the wine table after acquiring knowledge? Then I go to Douyin or Zhihu?
Therefore, I feel that Hooks product usage logic is weird, and it is purely for making money to answer questions. I don’t know if Binance has thought about what I said above when it promoted it. But these analyzes are really not important, as long as there is a good father of Binance, it is the last word, hahaha.
Have you noticed that the lighter of the two light categories of sleeping and walking is what users do every day in real life, so their extra empowerment (coolness) besides making money needs to be more obvious. , at least in the publicity and distribution needs to be more powerful; when it comes to rope skipping and reading, which are a little heavier, they are optional in real life, and it is necessary to start introducing the concept of fans. People who like rope skipping and reading books come in to play, private domain traffic Start to build; go further, when it comes to reinstallation products, basically rely on private domain traffic to support the product.
Heavy-duty products require additional equipment or utensils to be plugged in, and the entry threshold for C-end users is high. For example, those who ride bicycles (shared bicycles are special in our country), those who keep pets, etc., you must have bicycles or pets, which requires additional costs, and only true fans will enter the circle. Therefore, it is strongly recommended for reinstallation products to be operated by a team that already has private domain traffic in WEB2, and the emphasis is on converting WEB2 to WEB3. For example, Giant can do Bike to Earn, and those who sell dog food can do Raise to Earn. If you dont have a certain fan base, it will be much more difficult to build a high-rise building on the ground.
To sum up, life application projects focus on analyzing the characteristics of the C-end. How to judge whether a life application X to Earn product has potential? If it is leaning towards the light class, then focus on:
Whether the threshold for players to enter the circle is low enough determines the number of participants, and the size of the crowd determines the upper limit of the project; whether the cool point other than making money is convincing enough and whether it can really be effective; the team recruits new Xiaobai The operation and publicity capabilities are strong enough.
If it is biased towards reloading classes, then focus on:
Whether the team background comes with private domain traffic; whether the product can be developed based on the social attributes of a certain point of interest.
(2) Creation of Works
Compared with life application, we pay more attention to the products of work creation in the near future, because products in this category may have excellent works (IP) output, and there is a probability that they will evolve into a broad social platform similar to Douyin. Then you can have a new scenario empowerment for the native Token (entering the field of socialfi), and even have external advertising revenue, making the economic model healthier.
Work creation projects may produce excellent works or creators, and then start to spread virally, and the effect of attracting attention is very significant. It is possible to sing well, dance well, and write cool essays well. As for daily life applications, such as sleeping more securely, running more handsomely and running longer distances, can it become an excellent work? No, unless Guan Xiaotong sleeps and starts a live broadcast, or StepN trains a marathon Olympic champion. Therefore, life application products are likely to be limited to the optimization of the products own functions, and it is difficult to evolve. This may be the reason why StepN has been trying to do social networking, but the effect is not obvious.
Work creation products can enable excellent producers among C-end users to obtain high income. This is the idea of Skill to Earn, and this income may not come from Ponzi, but from fans from the bottom of their hearts Consumption (imagine the live broadcast in WEB2, the in-app purchase of each chapter in the serialization of cool articles, etc.), and the subsequent commercial income such as advertisements.
However, the difficulty in creating works comes from the B-side, which is the high cost of startup (we define it as foundation cost). For example, singing, most of the users sing works of other singers with copyright at the beginning, and the project party has to buy the copyright of the song; such as reading, if the user wants to read novels, the project party has to talk to a large number of excellent authors and invite them to settle in , but also spend a lot of cost.
To sum up, the characteristic of works creation products is that there may be excellent works or creators that can be spread wildly. The analysis should start from the B side to see if there is enough funds to cover the cost of foundation building. This type of product requires a long-term layout. It needs to evolve to the stage of social interaction if it can be done well. It is possible to obtain external income and make the economic model enter a self-circulation.
(3) Case analysis
We found two almost direct PK works creation cases Melody and MMMM in the field of Sing to Earn, and analyzed together: How can work creation products evolve.
First review the situation of these two projects:
Melody: Blind boxes will be sold in July 2022, governance token SNS and game token SGS will be launched in October, and then the market will be detonated, with various news and FOMO, mainly users in China. By December, governance tokens fell by 95%, and game tokens fell by 99.5% (as of early 2023). The NFT floor price is 0.16 BNB, and the sales price of the third batch of 3,000 blind boxes in November 2022 is 3 BNB. Judgment: The project is already cool.
MMMM: Start from the Japanese and Korean communities in October 2022. The pace is slow. The first batch of 4,000 blind boxes will be freemint on November 11, 2022. The floor price will rise to 0.2 ETH, currently 0.075 ETH, and the closed beta will be in November It started on the 25th, and started an internal test at the end of December without deleting files. The popularity and number of people in the community are currently increasing slowly, and Token is not yet online. Judgment: The team wants to make a long-term music product.
These two projects have been tracked by Guatian Lab, and the operation methods of the projects are completely different: the most obvious feature of the Melody project is that the team’s promotion ability is very strong, and it has the ability to detonate the market in a short period of time, so NFT is based on The sales method entered the market, 9,000 blind boxes were sold in three batches (1.5 B, 2B, 3 B), and the two tokens were also launched at the same time in October, which is still a typical way for top mining players to make money. However, this kind of anxious operation method is not suitable for X to Earn products in the category of work creation. It feels like a waste of money, and huskies have been raised as dirt dogs. Good music works have not come out in time, and the energy of the project has been overdrawn.
We observe the actions of the MMMM project party. It is still in the investment stage. The NFT is from Freemint, and the token has not yet been released, so I will use a word from the currency circle to describe it: Zhuang is still there. So we focus on analyzing MMMM from several aspects:
3.1 Future Development and Potential: Social Module
Why is it emphasized that the potential of this type of product lies in the evolution to the social stage? Or back to the economic model analysis:
1. Regardless of whether it is Melody or MMMM, this type of product is very important on the B side, because it takes a lot of money to buy song copyrights, and the cost of foundation building is too high, which is why many investment institutions stay away from this type of product. Melody has been ambiguous about copyright, while MMMM has explicitly bought the rights to the music at several AMAs.
2. After the copyright is purchased, users are encouraged to sing on the APP, and if they sing well, they will be rewarded with Tokens, which is similar to the PVE mode in blockchain games. Players can play the project party together. If the game is over by this stage, how much money will the project side make? Spend money to buy copyright, spend money to give incentives to users, is the project owner Lei Feng? Therefore, if the project party wants to make money in the first stage of the scene, it must continue to sell NFT, and continue to increase the currency price in the secondary market before shipping.
3. The current action of MMMM is that the NFT is freemint, the token is not listed, and the copyright has cost a lot of money. How does it want to make money? The high probability is to evolve the product to the second stage: the social model, earning long-term and stable cash flow through socialfi and external income.
4. Let’s imagine, a nerdy guy who is dead at home, yells a few songs on MMMM every day, earns some Mess (game Token), and waits for the Token to be sold online. As a result, the project team organized a super girl or riding the wind and waves competition. The young girls in it sang beautifully and well. The level of their works is not inferior to that of Korean girl groups. There may also be a few Chen Yifa or Feng Timo. The hairy man has become a fan ! Token to reward the young lady! In the competition, pledge the Token to the exclusive pool of the young lady, and make the young lady Re to the top of the list! There is a new scene for Mess consumption, which profoundly expounds the truth of the currency circle makes money and the currency circle spends money, and one wants to take it home.
Goddess Feng Timo
5. After users and good works have formed a virtuous circle, the circle can be expanded and developed. The follow-up is to create an influential fan club, and various online and offline interactions between Idol and fans. As long as there are more users who appreciate good works, as long as there are more sticky fans, don’t you worry about not having external income such as advertisements? This is how the eyeball economy comes about.
6. Why dont ladies and sisters choose WEB2 platform to sing and make money? First, the current WEB2 platform Red Sea has a low profit sharing ratio; second, the advantage of WEB3 is that the profit sharing data is clear and all on the chain, the project party cannot fake it, and the contract can also guarantee the execution of the profit sharing to the accounts of the girls. It avoids the need for unspoken rules to withdraw cash.
7. Fans in WEB2 have to pay purely. If you like her, you have to pay time or money. What Idol gives you back is spiritual satisfaction, not material satisfaction. And as a fan of WEB3, a dead house boy who rewards Token or pledges Token for Idol is likely to have a good harvest both materially and spiritually! Isnt it just to move over the liquidity drainage method in Defi? Imagine the next online competition, ten young ladies each set up a pool, and fans pledge sub-coins to represent the pool with the most votes to get 50% of the game revenue, and the fans who win the bet can make money.
After reading MMMMs white paper carefully, there is a separate piece about social networking. I hope this project can evolve to the social stage smoothly.
3.2 MMMMs actual product experience
Based on the fact that Melody is already cool, you can go to experience MMMM. The second round of internal testing without deleting files (not deleting files means that the currently earned Token MESS is valid) requires an invitation code. Im experiencing it these days. I am not a singing fan, and I basically don’t go to karaoke rooms, but I listen to songs while driving. After using MMMM, it became a very good tool to adjust and rest between desk work. Singing to practice lung capacity and sweating, I thought that singing an S was the top. Later, Guayou said that they would sing SS casually. There is even SSS, and then I know that S is not the top, it may be just a pass, and I feel ashamed.
At present, the function of MMMM is relatively simple, that is, singing to score, and then giving MESS. I hope that its development progress will not be too fast. With the lessons learned, it is sometimes faster to take it slowly.
3.3 How to prevent structural risks of products
The first structural risk of this type of product is copyright. As mentioned above, the MMMM project clearly spent money to obtain the copyright in the AMA, and we observed that when its partners explained the acquisition of Japanese and Korean copyrights, they explained The process is very specific and detailed, and most of the songs in the product use process appear in Chinese and Korean. In addition, we also saw tweets about copyright authorization from the project party and the Japanese Partner Composers Association on the official Twitter, and we also saw the cooperation with Japanese musician Tetsuya Komuro. Therefore, it is basically judged that MMMM has overcome the copyright risk and can operate for a long time.
The second type of structural risk is to prevent cheating. Scripts and cheaters are the deadliest killers of a WEB3 project, which will lead to unfair overproduction, which will accelerate the project into a death spiral. For example, the hook answer can open many scripts at the same time...
At present, MMMMs anti-cheating mechanism is to show their faces and sing. Although the project party has made it clear that it will not record it, for WEB3 users who are more concerned about personal privacy, this mechanism feels a bit unsafe. Can you refer to StepN? It introduces and perfects the AI anti-cheating technology. The discussion we have seen in the community about singing with ones face is that the project team will improve this mechanism in the future and change the real face into a cute face.
3.4 How to Drain Traffic from WEB2
For a mature social product, only WEB3 users are far from enough, the focus is on how to divert users from WEB2. From what we have learned so far, MMMM plans to adopt a no-threshold model similar to the chain game skyweaver: WEB2 users can directly register an account to use it, and the wallet is already built in, so they can use it directly when they want to use it. At the same time, if WEB2 users have confidence in their singing voice, they can use the rental system to rent NFT to sing to get mess, which realizes singing at zero cost in disguise to make money.
The details of the MMMM project will not be introduced in this article. There was a picture in the project community that briefly introduced the following projects:
If you want to read Chinese, or learn more,You can read the project evaluation article published by Guayou Xiaolou: https://medium.com/@wggdao/ Hitachi Yizi-mmmm-fc 1 e 1 de 8 c 5 e
(4) Summary of the X to N track
The X to Earn track will always be a hot spot. Whether it is an investment institution or a game user, when exposed to this type of project, you can first judge whether the project is life application or work creation according to our classification map. For example, two products in the reading category, Readon and Read 2 N, seem to be for reading in the past, but the focus of analysis is different, resulting in different classifications: Readon uses algorithms to push your favorite articles, similar to Qutoutiao , so it is classified as life application category; and Read 2 N, the direction is a creation platform, similar to Qidian.com, so it is classified as work creation category.
If it is a life application category, analyze it from the perspective of the C-end, specific to several dimensions: the severity of the user entry threshold and the number of participants, whether the cool point is enough to convince people, and the difficulty of private domain traffic.
If it is work creation, analyze it from the perspective of the B-side, specific to several dimensions: whether the project party has enough funds to cover the initial foundation cost, whether the project party has a long-term plan to evolve into a social scene, and the project party Where does the income actually come from.
