The recent Hong Kong conference is in full swing, and the primary market has picked up. ABCDE Q1 saw more than 100 projects and personally experienced several particularly hot tracks in the market, the hottest of which include Appchain, ZK and Gaming.
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1. Appchain (especially RAAS, Rollup as a Service)
RAAS is a track that emerged at the end of last year. It has a lot to do with the release of OP Stack, but Appchain as a Service has existed for a long time. Represented by Cosmos SDK, it has gradually become popular after Celestia proposed a modular blockchain. RAAS can be seen Cheng is one of the recent hotter subsets.
Why might the Appchain as a Service track be OverHype recently?
First of all, if you are a developer and want to build an Appchain yourself, the options you face are as follows,
If your chain is EVM, then you can:
1. Make a pure ETH side chain like Ronin (I believe few people will do this now)
2. Use Skale to make an ETH side chain
3. Use Avax to send a link and connect to Avaxs P link
4. Use Polygon Supernet to send an EVM chain
5. Use BAS to make a side chain based on BNB Chain
6. Make a Rollup Appchain with OP Stack
7. Use Caldera to make a Rollup Appchain (essentially Op Stack)
8. Use Zk-Sync to make a L3 (it is expected to be seen this year)
9. At the time of writing, Arbitrum also released their Orbit, which is also a L3 infrastructure similar to Opstack
10. There are many projects under development such as Opside, Stackr, Sovereign SDK, etc.
If your chain is non-EVM, then you can:
1. Use the Cosmos SDK to make a chain, or be independent and self-reliant, or share ATOM security (ICS proposal just passed)
2. Use Substrate to send a chain, or bid for Polkadot slots, or connect to the Octopus network, or don’t connect to anyone, and your time will be quiet
3. Use Celestias Rollkit to make a Rollup Appchain, DA uses Celestia, settlement is optional
4. Make a Rollup Appchain with Dymension
5. Make a Rollup Appchain with Saga
6. Make an L3 based on Starkware (I expect to see it this year)
7. There must be many more under development, which I don’t know or have missed or didn’t think of
Do you feel—The options are too rich for a little bit?!
Secondly, which applications are suitable for Appchain? Remember the article about whether Uniswap should make itself an Appchain and the debates on the Internet a few months ago?
In general, if Uniswap is made into an Appchain, it will have advantages such as transaction fees, token value capture, anti-Mev, resource monopoly, etc., but at the same time gain user experience, security, and the debuff of reduced composability.
In short, we have not yet seen Uniswaps plan or ambition to become an Appchain.
Compound originally wanted to use Substrate as a chain, but later gave up. Now both Compound and Aave V3 are multi-chain deployments. At present, it seems that the possibility of making Appchain is not great.
As for Curve, it should never have been planned.
Only DYDX, which has no reliance on composability, chose to go to Cosmos to build an Appchain. It should be seen in Q3 this year. Perhaps after Luna, this is the most anticipated Appchain. At that time, DYDX will also show a path to many Builders - if you occupy a leading position in a track and do not have high requirements for composability, it is Make Sense to independently build a sovereign + high-performance Appchain. Before that, you can choose a general-purpose chain ecology as a Dapp wretched development to fight monsters and upgrade, and wait until the level is high enough before flying solo.
This path is relatively feasible. For example, if a SocialFi DAPP based on Lens Protocol becomes bigger and stronger in the future, with high DAU, Polygon’s throughput can’t be satisfied, solo and use the above infrastructure to make a Rollup Appchain to completely make Sense . However, in the short term for this kind of case, the number of projects that can meet the above conditions to make a chain should not be as large as the infrastructure that can issue a chain...
Then there is a track that is naturally suitable for directly sending a chain to make Appchain. This track project will be the largest user of the above-mentioned infrastructure. At present, before the problem of inter-chain heterogeneous composability is completely overcome, it is unlikely that non-Cosmos ecological Defi will take this path. The most suitable track is undoubtedly Gamefi (including Onchain Autonomous World-chain autonomous world). For example, DFK and Crab based on AVAX, OPcraft, which was very popular some time ago, and Curio, which uses Caldera to send chains, etc.
Looking at my Little Fox and Keplr wallets, after the collapse of Luna, it seems that except for DFK and Osmosis, I don’t seem to have used other Appchains. This makes me wonder, we really need “dozens of Appchains” in this cycle Or is it such a huge infrastructure as Rollup as Service?
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1.1. OP series
The RAAS based on the OP system seen so far is basically done by Fork OP Stack. There is no technical barrier in itself. The code and documents of OP are very neat and clear. Our technical masters of ABCDE can follow the documents in less than a day. Set up an OP Rollup Appchain, so the value provided by this type of RAAS to customers lies more in the added value of Sequencer, block explorer and rapid deployment, and the marketing ability is far greater than the technical ability
Furthermore, the TPS, block time, usage fee, etc. of this kind of Appchain are basically completely homogeneous with Optimism, and there is no optimization measure for performance cost, so in theory, unless the OP is blocked, otherwise you are on this AppChain. You cant get a better experience than the OP Universal Chain. And OPs current shortcomings, this type of RAAS is also completely inherited, such as the fraud certificate that has not been online for a long time...
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1.2. ZK series
Theoretically speaking, ZK series RAAS is likely to improve the Appchain user experience, because ZK-Sync, Scroll, etc. that take the ZKEVM route focus on compatibility, so the circuit design will sacrifice some efficiency, and there is no way to target Optimized for a specific Dapps. If RAAS can do separate circuit design or optimization according to different DAPPs, the performance and experience of ZK Appchain must be better than the general-purpose ZkEVM
However, there are too few talents in this world who understand both ZK and blockchain. The few people are basically concentrated on Starknet, Zk-Sync, Scroll, and Polygon. As far as the ZK-based RAAS currently on the market is concerned, Basically, it is taking the Alpha open source version of Zk-Sync and sending you the Fork chain of Zk-Sync. . After Polygon and Scroll are online + fully open source, the most is to provide customers with options. Do you like ZK-Sync or Polygon or Scrolls EVM? There are so many points. When creating a Linux virtual machine in AWS, you choose Redhat, or Centos, or Debian immediate sense of sight
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Two. ZK
If Appchain as Service can be regarded as the representative track of modular blockchain, then there are two major blockchain studies this year-modularization and ZK.
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2.1 Layer 2
expansion
Needless to say, the mainnets of several major ZK-Rollups have been launched this year, but they are still online. After the launch, there are actually quite a lot of problems
Completeness
performance
performance
The performance of the ZK series, at least at this stage, must be <= OP series. Of course, it may not be obvious from the users perspective, because the Sequencer will confirm it for you within a few seconds. ZK proofs can actually be done slowly (usually it takes 10-20 minutes to complete a block). The real realization of Finality on the Internet is not very Careful, nor can it be perceived. The current popular circuit optimization, or hardware acceleration, actually accelerates the proof time of 10-20 minutes, but it has no effect on user experience.
cost
Safety
Safety
This is a matter of opinion. The traditional understanding is that ZK is based on mathematical proofs, and OP is based on economic games. Mathematics > game, so ZK is safer than OP.
This is of course fine in the long run.
But thats not necessarily the case at this stage.
The so-called security means that the transaction must be terminated on ETH L1. At present, Arb is submitted every two or three minutes, and OP is about 10 minutes. On the ZK side, due to the time-consuming and labor-intensive proof, it will basically be at the level of 10-20 minutes, and it is still in the case of full blocks. If the ecology is not prosperous enough and the blocks are not full, it will take longer
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2.2. Middleware and others
This is actually a track that many people are more optimistic about than expansion, because using ZK to do expansion is a very heavy job. You can see that these rollups have been tossing for several years before the main network is launched, and the middleware is relatively light. A large amount, and can perfectly play the ZK characteristics
The most popular middleware track is naturally Interoperability—the track of interoperability. Through the ZK proof, the requirement for third-party witnesses is exempted, the security of the bridge is greatly improved, and some bridges that were originally separated from each other and even difficult to communicate with each other are opened up. Ecology, such as between each Layer 2, or the IBC interconnection between EVM and Cosmos, etc. Several teams currently working include Succinct Labs (just released their Telepathy product a few days ago, realizing the one-way ZK bridge of ETH), Electron Labs (the first to propose the concept of ZK-IBC), Polyhedra (ZK Bridge, ZK DID, first project from ABCDE).
Although this track is much lighter than Rollup, it is still a super hard-core + time-consuming and laborious track. It is highly unlikely that we want to see a two-way ZK bridge with satisfactory performance and safety this year. Based entirely on the interoperability of ZK, we still have to find a timeline of 2-3 years to plan.
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3. Gamefi
Gamefi may be the hottest track at the moment, not one of them. Counting the projects watched + chatted in the past few months, if it is divided into each sub-track, Gamefi should be the most.
The reason is not difficult to understand. On the one hand, V God himself said several years ago that finance and games will be the first two scenarios where the blockchain will be implemented.
On the other hand, attempts in various directions, such as Defi, storage, and Socialfi, have made unsatisfactory progress in Mass Adoption. Although the myth of X 2 Earn has been shattered, Axie and StepN let everyone in the circle see the promise of breaking the circle. Hope, and even many people firmly believe that to break the circle on a large scale, you have to count on games.
So for a while, not only Web2 game developers began to cast their eyes here frequently, including technical teams from major manufacturers and well-known game studios, but also Web3’s various original ecological NFT, Defi and other ecological circles. Dookey Dash made by Ape some time ago was a relatively successful attempt to apply a layer of Gamefi to my own things.
But the current Gamefi track is actually in a slightly embarrassing period. The pain and death spiral of X 2 Earn has just ended. How to strike a balance between motivation and gameplay? A smear of crossing the river by feeling the stones. At this stage, a consensus has basically been reached-Free 2 Play, such as running shoes and Axie, where you have to spend money to buy NFT before you can play. The model is no longer available on the Internet.
We have seen the exploration of the following forms so far.
Level 3 A—
From one extreme to the other, if Axie is emphasizing Earn, 3 As are emphasizing Play, and the degree of emphasizing varies. Lighter ones, such as those focusing on the Web3 circle, attract Web3 players to play through NFT and other forms, and heavy ones, such as those focusing on the Web2 circle, completely follow the traditional Internet mobile game model from production to operation to local promotion. The system is moved to the chain, and even the wallet may be built-in for you + no effect...
Leisure social class—
We have all experienced the era of stealing vegetables, farms, and grabbing parking spaces in Web2. Will Web3s Gamefi also have such a period? Social, casual, with a little Earn? Not sure about the future, but at least a direction that hasnt been explored much before. The new X to Earn mode - the Bet to Earn mode represented by PSI is the most seen at present, also called Risk to Earn. Simply put, it is to associate Earn with your skills and proficiency, Imagine a game similar to Web3 Chicken Eats, where 100 players have to spend $1 to participate in the game, and the winner will take away the $100 prize. This can basically solve the previous Ponzi model that relied on the rapid growth of new players and the inevitable death spiral later. Because this economic model roughly becomes PVP. However, this kind of game is similar to 3 A, and requires high enough playability to retain players, because the economic incentives for ordinary users have become very small
NFT-based Free to Own—
Represented by DigiDaigaku, in fact, APE’s Dookey Dash also has a similar feel. In short, it is to attract players to come to hold NFT for free or at a very low price, and then find ways to continuously empower NFT. The suspense + mystery + marketing ability requirements are very high, and the later development and production game ability requirements are also high, so it is a route with a very high threshold. In addition, the number of NFTs is often limited to 10,000 in the early stage. How to expand the number of people in the circle is not small. problem.
Game Nintendo—
Naturally, this is represented by TresureDAO and Gala. Among them, Gala’s games are more “heavy”, while TresureDAO’s games are more “small game” style. After the Beacon is released, it is bound to attract more similar games. Small games have entered its ecology. Small games on Web2 have been enduring for a long time, and no one knows whether Web3 can be successfully reproduced.
Defi gamification—
Here, DefiKingdom is considered to be the only seedling, its ambition is also very big, and the system is extremely complex, which makes people see the visual sense of Fantasy Westward Journey on the chain. However, after the 100-fold Hype in 21 years, no major progress has been made, and the currency price has also been sluggish after returning to the original point. This complex Gamefi that is deeply integrated with Defi seems to have a rough future.
Fully Onchain Game—
This may be the most Hype Gamefi category on ETH Denver. There is no other reason. The other categories have more or less the shadow of Web2.5. Only full-chain games are Web3 games that fully have blockchain features, and even Some of them cannot be called games, but should be called Onchain Autonomous World- on-chain autonomous world. This may be the third type of truly blockchain-native product after Defi and NFT. But just as Defi (MakerDAO) and NFT (Encryption Kitties) were born in 2017 at the same time, but broke out in 2020 and 2021 respectively, Fully Onchain Game is also in an extremely early exploration period, and it may also take 3-4 years Time will win the highlight moment.
Summarize:
Summarize:
Rethinking the three most popular tracks at the moment does not mean that we are not optimistic about these tracks. On the contrary, ABCDE is optimistic about the above three tracks for a long time, and has already or planned to lay out on these tracks . We tend to overestimate the short-term value of some technologies, and often underestimate the long-term value of some technologies. These tracks may not be able to match investment opportunities with the primary and secondary markets or bring short-term return on investment. But for long-term investment VCs like us with a 5-year exit period for LPs, time will be our best friend.
