Moderator: Alex Mint Ventures Research Partner
Guests: Founder of Xin Old Fashion Research, Head of Zheng Siwei First Class Warehouse Research, Researcher of Lawrence Mint Ventures
Program recording time: 2023.11.03
Hello everyone, welcome to WEB3 Mint To Be sponsored by Mint Ventures. Here, we continue to ask questions and think deeply, clarifying facts, exploring reality, and finding consensus in the WEB3 world. I am Alex, a research partner at Mint Ventures. Today we specially invited three teachers to talk about the topic of bargain hunting in bear markets.
Disclaimer: The content we discuss in this podcast does not represent the views of the institutions where the guests are located, and the projects mentioned do not constitute any investment advice.
Alex: We have invited three Web3 investors in this podcast, all of whom have long-term investment experience in the primary and secondary markets. One is Teacher Xin, who was previously in charge of investments at Fenbushi Capital and Binance Labs, and is currently the founder of Old Fashion Research. The other one is Mr. Zheng Siwei, who is the head of investment research for the first-class warehouse. Another one is Lawrence, our researcher at Mint Ventures. Please three of you say hello to everyone and introduce yourself and the corresponding business scope.
Xin：Hi everyone, we at Old Fashion Research are a multi-strategy fund. It had done some mergers and acquisitions before, and it was an institution that focused on primary market investment. Recently, we have also begun to make some investments and allocations in the secondary market.
Zheng Siwei:Hello everyone, First Class Warehouse mainly produces project research report output for the public, and I am responsible for the management of the investment research business.
Lawrence：I do research at Mint Ventures, and I pay more attention to the category of Defi, as well as stablecoins, derivatives, and some innovative on-chain projects.
Market cycle judgment
Alex：The first question is about cycles. Some people believe that we are still in the bear market cycle or at the end of it, and there may be a long bear market in the future. Some people also believe that we are already in the early stages of a bull market, and there may not be a very long and deep bear market cycle in the future. What are the three criteria for judging cycles?
Xin：Let me start by talking about my personal understanding. I personally feel that in terms of liquidity, it cannot be said to be a complete bear market. Of course, we are still far away from signs of liquidity overflow in the bull market, but we can already see some liquidity gradually coming back. I personally prefer to understand it as a state of late bear market and early bull market, or at the end of a bear market. We can see that it was particularly obvious yesterday. In my impression, SOLs trading volume yesterday seemed to be about 3 to 4 billion, and its Market Cap was 16 billion. The trading volume of Ethereum and Bitcoin is currently on the rise. stage. Yesterday, Bitcoin was about 34 billion, and Ethereum was 13.9 billion. This number has basically increased by maybe 30% to 40% from the end of last year. I will take a look at the data later. So in terms of trading volume, I think it is gradually coming out of the state of liquidity exhaustion. Especially at the end of 2022, when liquidity is extremely exhausted, there will be some abnormal needle sticks and abnormal price sudden crashes, so I think it will slowly come out. In addition, from an emotional point of view, there is a rotation of some themes, or in other words, everyone is beginning to pay attention to this feature of sector rotation. This logic is not very obvious yet, but it is gradually felt. Including some strong currencies, you can see some traces of the main positions being opened. The market has also broken through a long-term sideways trend, and overall it feels like it is recovering.
Zheng Siwei:Let me share my personal views. This does not represent the views of the institution, nor is it investment advice. Let’s talk about the conclusion first. I quite agree with what Mr. I used to divide the bull and bear cycle into two stages, a bear market and a bull market. Now I think it is more appropriate to divide it into three stages. One is a unilateral upward bull market, and the other is a unilateral downward bear market. These two characteristics will be more obvious. From the last round, it may be from 312 to November 2021. This is a unilateral upward bull market. Then from November 2021 to November 2022, it will be a unilateral downward bear market. I think the most subtle thing is the middle period, which is from November 2022 to now, and to some point in the future. I myself would think of it as the third stage. The reason why there is a third stage is because I mainly make copycats. I found that in the third stage, bits and copycats are not on the same frequency, and even copycats and copycats are not on the same frequency. If we divide it according to the previous two stages, I will have some contradictions when guiding myself to invest in Bitcoin and Shanzhai. I feel like Im in a moment like 2019 from the last round. There is a high probability that Bit’s low point has already been reached in November last year, but many copycats are still in the bottom-seeking stage. Some copycats have already seen the bottom, and some are still in the process of finding the bottom. I myself have not filled my bullets fully, and I don’t think it is a stage where the bull market has fully started.
Lawrence：My views are relatively similar to those of the two teachers. I also think that if it is not the end of the bear market, it may be in the middle or late stage of the bear market. It may still fall, but if you buy now, as long as you dont choose the target too outrageously, you should lose only time but not money. I think no matter what data you look at now, there is still a certain distance from a bull market. Whether looking at the on-chain data or the total amount of stablecoins, each data seems to still be in the shock stage of the mid-to-late bear market.
Alex：We have also been communicating with some friends about periodic issues. One doubt is that everyone seems to have a strong consistency in the transition between bear market and bull market, including the arrival time of the bull market cycle. Of course, this may also be because the scope of our research or discussion is not broad enough. But after overall communication, everyone is more inclined to see a formal bull market cycle from the second half of 2024 to 2025. Regarding this consistency, do you think there will be any reflexivity? Maybe everyone sees it this way, and the bull market will not come as expected. Does Teacher Zheng think this is a problem? Do you think that consistency is just what the people around us think? Maybe most people don’t think so.
Zheng Siwei:Let me start by saying that what I collected is a small sample. What you just mentioned is that the second half of next year, or even the end of next year, will be the beginning of a bull market. Indeed, some people around me think so. But I have also come across some market voices that make me feel more optimistic. Some people would have thought that the bottom was ironclad some time ago and that the bull market had begun. It’s just that from the end of the bear to the beginning of the ox, the signs of its transformation are not so sure. Some people are more optimistic and feel that they are in the middle now. There are also some people who think that ETF expectations and the halving next year, which should be around April, may be a trigger. So theres not that much consistency in the small sample group that I know about. Of course, if it is true that most of the voices are predicting the second half of next year or the end of next year, I think it will definitely have the reflexivity you mentioned. Since it is predicted that the next quarter will be a bull market, many people will definitely buy the dips and ambush in advance, which will affect the entire timeline.
Alex：Teacher Xin is now overseas and has contacted many friends, project parties, and investment institutions. Please share your views, Mr. Xin.
Xin：Yes, I think you said it very well, that is, there will definitely be known expectations. I think this is also the case in terms of the U.S. stock market or the macro cycle, because everyone’s predictions about interest rates, including U.S. stocks, for example, there is a high probability that interest rates will not be cut this year, and when will interest rates be cut next year, this will actually be reflexive. . In fact, I don’t think this phenomenon in the currency circle is as strong as in the traditional market. You will find that when crypto follows the macro or the US stock market, it was very tight for a period of time. I remember it was at the beginning of the year. In fact, there has been a slight decoupling during this period. The U.S. stock market is correcting, but crypto is still going strong, so I think crypto has its own growth characteristics. The first one is the macro cycle. Everyone will be affected by this to predict, for example, when interest rates will be cut at the end of next year, and then a bull market may start. In the middle, I think it may be necessary to combine some of the characteristics of the crypto market industry, because relatively speaking, the market capacity is not that large. One is the expectation of ETF, which depends on when it will be implemented. Secondly, I think the overall regulatory environment in the United States is still very negative. In the last cycle, there were some excessive overdraft regulations that were favorable. When will it be repaired, including the SBF case? After a conclusion is reached, can the mainstream people in the United States turn their views on crypto into a positive one? I think there will be some changes in industry characteristics. Affect the rhythm of the industry. This may be the reason why simply looking at the macro picture may not be enough to accurately follow the rhythm of crypto.
Alex：Have you ever met people around you who don’t agree with us? They think that the bear market may not come until 2025, or even think that the bear market will last for a very long time. And the logic of this conclusion still makes some sense? Can you share it with us.
Xin：Your question is very good. I have heard people who feel pessimistic about the market and that the bull market may not reach a height like 69,000. I have heard people say that. Let me tell you the arguments, and I don’t completely agree with them. One is excessive overdraft due to favorable US regulations. In the last bull market, in fact, basically all mainstream institutions in the United States entered, including American retail investors through various channels. At that time, there were also crypto banking channels such as Silver Bank, PayPal, Robin Hood, etc., which were recognized by the mainstream market. The speed and entry rhythm are very crazy, and the entire path is relatively smooth. I still remember that FTX was still very convenient for deposits and withdrawals in the United States at that time, and the entry of Defi on the chain, including the entire leveraged image. Through SBF, and funds such as Three Arrows, they continued to increase leverage, which actually caused the price on the market to rise. Falsely high. This situation is likely to be difficult to replicate in a heavily regulated environment. You have already been crazy once, and if you want to reach the same level of fanaticism the second time, everyone will still be afraid. The second is that the overall capacity of the market is relatively high. Today, the market value of Bitcoin is probably more than 600 billion U.S. dollars. If the market value is to increase 2 to 3 times, it will be about 12,000 to 10,050. In fact, for the application of Bitcoin, many people feel that this application is not yet able to support such a narrative. Of course I might be a little more optimistic.
Bear market bargain hunting ideas
Alex：We just talked about the overall view on the cycle. It may still be in the state of the end of the bear period and the beginning of the bull period. There is a so-called investment saying: Bull markets are born out of hesitation. When everyones opinions are more divergent and chaotic, it is often the stage when a bull market may be gestating. Let’s talk about a more specific question. Regardless of whether your positions are full or not, you must have already started configuring and executing your plan to buy the bottom. What is your current bargain-hunting plan and what is your idea? This may include position selection. We will discuss the specific targets later. Lawrence, lets talk about it first.
Lawrence：Personally, my position is currently close to full, and I have plans to reduce my position recently. The bargain-hunting started probably in the second half of last year, and I have been making fixed investments. Some time ago, the position was close to full. The general idea is that after the FTX incident in November last year, I felt that I had reached an extremely pessimistic state, but I was not sure whether it was definitely the bottom, so I started to make fixed investments at that time. I didn’t expect that this wave of growth was very fast at the beginning of this year. I was a little confused at the time as I felt like it was rising so quickly. Mainly in the past year, I have been making fixed investments.
Alex：Let me talk about it too. The time points for our institution to buy bottoms were at two time points last year, one was the time when Luna was hit by thunder, and the other was the time when FTX was hit by thunder. Basically, they were all unexpected extreme events in the two markets. At that time, we did a lot of bargain hunting, and I myself added more positions at almost these two points in time. My current overall position is a full position with a small leverage. Small leverage means that I have made some mortgages on the spot, and then borrowed a small amount of funds to make some underlying allocations. However, I have also reduced my positions in some targets that have rebounded relatively strongly in recent times, so now is the stage of full positions and small leverage. The general idea is the same as what Lawrence just said. I feel that if I buy some better high-quality targets at the bottom now, I personally think that in the long run I may lose time at most, but the income should still be good. My own general idea is that I dont do fixed investments very much. I prefer to buy large positions when extreme events occur. If there are extreme events in the future, my leverage position will be increased a little. If not, this position may continue. If the short-term rise is too fast, I may reduce my position. In fact, I am betting that there may still be some downward fluctuations in the future, or there may still be some unexpected events. If not, the profit from this position in the bull market may be thin. This is my personal thinking. Please tell Mr. Zheng about some bargain-hunting ideas that you can refer to for your own or first-class positions.
Zheng Siwei:Let me tell you about myself first. I think specific bargain-hunting plans will vary depending on personal investment styles and strategies. My own investment style tends to focus on three points. First, I mainly focus on copycats, and less on bits and ether. The second is to mainly do long-term, less medium and short-term. The third is to mainly do the left side and less to the right side. Under this premise, my current position may be somewhat different from the two, and the overall position will be relatively low. As for the specific bottom-buying plan, I think it should be based on time period. Alex mentioned just now that bull markets are often born when everyone is hesitant. From the end of the bear period to the beginning of the ox period, I will first consider configuring some bits and ether. On the one hand, he was afraid of missing something, and on the other hand, he was not sure whether it was Niu Chu. Holding Bits and Ether, I thought that I could be less short-circuited. Even if there was a retracement, the retracement would not be particularly large later. I think the last round at the end of 2019 was actually a good stage. 312 is an extreme market that is rare in ten or even twenty years. In the consideration of this cycle, I will not include this event with a relatively small basic probability, but there may be a black swan at any time. When I really feel that I am getting better and better, I will start to make some copycat configurations. Copying copies is also done in batches. As I just mentioned, copycats and copycats actually have different frequencies. That is to say, at a certain time period, if I have ten promising copycats, these three may have been filled in the past two months. In addition, Six positions that may be part of it havent even moved yet. So this is where I find it more difficult, to determine the bottom-finding range for different bottoms of the bullish targets, and to see when and where it will occur. Therefore, I will consider choosing different opportunities to buy bottoms based on different copycat ranges. Then I would set aside a portion of the fund that is flexible. Because of the last round, I feel more confident that some of the targets I hold will be those that have increased more. But later it turned out that some coins that I didnt understand well would achieve very exaggerated gains in the bull market, so I later added a trade on the right side. Because of this market stage, I think it is relatively early, and there will be some special trends, so I will leave a small part to try those trends. Of course, the left part is my backbone, and the right part is just a partial experiment.
Alex：I just talked about altcoins, so when buying altcoins at the bottom of a bear market, what criteria would you prefer to choose? Do you have a general idea?
Zheng Siwei: The general framework is two very simple points, one is a good project, and the second is a good price. The framework is simple, but the execution is particularly difficult. For a good project, the final result is a good bid. I think a good bid is either a very good project, but the price may not be so attractive; or it is a medium project, but the price is very attractive. Let me give you an example, such as Uniswap. Most of the market will think that it is a good project from a fundamental perspective, but is the price a very attractive one? That is to say, it is expected that in the next round of bull market, it will How much can it increase, and how certain is the increase, or simply calculated using mathematical expectations, I think in the end such a good project may not necessarily be a very good target. This is my personal opinion. In addition, some projects are definitely not as high-quality as White Horse Stocks and White Horse Coins. There are also many uncertainties in the development process. They may be better or worse in the future. Generally I would not consider this kind of project, but if its total market value FDV today is less than 100 million US dollars, I will give it a more tolerant standard because its market value is relatively low, even if it is as low as With 10 to 20 million US dollars, I will take part of the position to try. If it goes astray and withers, then I will admit defeat. But if it really moves in the expected direction, it will bring an increase that white horse coins like Uni cannot match. Generally speaking, when looking at a project, you need to look at both fundamentals and price. Sometimes I feel that in our industry, prices fluctuate too much. So I would open at least 50-50, and sometimes even 60-40, with six points allocated to price and four points to fundamentals.
Alex：You just talked about your personal thinking. Is there anything in your organization that is different from your personal thinking?
Zheng Siwei:Institutions will have differences due to different fund sizes and operating styles. First of all, there will be multiple investment managers responsible for the overall funds of our institution. I am responsible for part of it. The part I am responsible for will be more similar to my personal style of play. This is also what our boss requires, and it must be based on personal style, otherwise both methods will not work well if implemented at the same time. Then there are some differences here, mainly in two places. One is that because institutions have relatively large funds, they are not as radical in some aspects as some of my personal operations. For example, if I see something on the right side, sometimes I might try it if I see some opportunities on the right side. But as a relatively large capital, it will not do that and will only take action when it is relatively certain. Second, because I am not just one investment manager, there are many other investment managers, some with similar styles and some with very different styles. Their capital will be different because of their different investment styles. Our boss is mainly responsible for adjusting the differences in the entire investment portfolio by assigning different positions to each investment manager. He may feel that the styles of the two investment managers in the next round are more suitable for the rhythm of the market, so he will tilt more accordingly. Give them some positions.
Xin：Teacher Zheng and I have similar ideas. My position is not full. In fact, I was basically short before September. Then I bought a little bit in September and sold some in October when the increase was relatively high. Now it is basically still close to a half position. Basically, I am not very good at allocating Bitcoin because I really pursue higher risk and return. I will probably max out Ether first, and I am more similar to Teacher Zheng in other copycats. I made a list of ten to twenty items. It is impossible to cover every one of them because the funds will be too spread out. Theme rotation will also be considered, so this is why I havent filled my position yet. At least Im not particularly sure about this logic yet. Of course I have a general logic, but it’s not as clear as in 2019 or 2020. In other words, the targets back then were cheaper. Now even if there is this logic of an industry, I find that the better targets in the industry are still a bit expensive, so I have been waiting. Wait until there are two situations. In the first situation, there may be a fluctuation and there is an opportunity to buy the bottom by mistake; in the second situation, there may be no fluctuation and the price will remain stable. If it hadnt come down, I might have chased it. So Im still waiting for a fluctuating opportunity.
Alex：When we were selecting the bid, I felt that there were two ideas, and I didn’t say which one was better. The first one is more focused on business, looking at whether its business model is good and whether it has a moat. In fact, we are looking at the project based on fundamentals to evaluate it, and use it as an important reference standard for a good target. The other one may focus more on narrative and market trend sentiment, as well as our speculation on whether this theme will be popular in the next round. Both may have good investment records and poor investment records. When Mr. Xin selects the copycat projects just mentioned, which one do you think accounts for a larger proportion in your investment portfolio? Why?
Xin：I may prefer those with better fundamentals, because we have more experience in the primary market, and the logic based on fundamental analysis will be more convincing. We can also better evaluate whether the market price is cheap enough, or whether it is cheap enough. It is not within a reasonable range that one can judge whether it is undervalued or overvalued. So at least it has certain business and fundamentals, and then we will also combine it with public opinion. For example, during the time of Solona, I actually said in September that public opinion had some negative comments before. Maybe its business itself was OK, which is what we prefer. In terms of hot spots, it is actually more difficult for us to judge. I think hotspots might suit two types of people. One is to create a hot spot by oneself. For example, some European and American funds can indeed write this kind of narrative in the secondary market to promote the target in hand and create a hot spot. There is another method that requires great diligence, such as the human wave tactic to monitor 24 hours a day, or mechanized monitoring, such as trade news, which is also possible. We dont seem to be in line with either of these two. We still prefer to lay out some fundamentals in the long term. Then an institution in the primary market may have an advantage, that is, you can chat with the team and get in touch with their progress, including some future plans and Staffing, etc., so I will also know more about the fundamentals.
Lawrence：Alex just mentioned both, and I’m doing both. You may choose some projects that are relatively familiar with good fundamentals and do some transactions based on their own event drivers. On the other hand, I will try to combine some with market hot spots. Of course, these usually do not take large positions. It may be based on some of the market sentiments observed at the time. The business model may not be particularly clear. More are narrative-driven tokens. For me, the main goal is to earn excess returns compared to ETH.
Tracks and targets for bargain hunting
Alex：Lets get into a more specific question. In the process of buying the bottom, do you have any specific targets that you can share about specific tracks and specific targets? For example, you may be more optimistic about Defi or the derivatives under Defi, and what projects will be included in the derivatives. Let’s talk about examples of specific targets and the logic of bargain hunting. Our agency has just conducted some secondary dragnet investigations and screened out some targets. Why not share them with Lawrence first.
Lawrence：What I usually read more about are stablecoins and derivatives. Several projects have been screened out before, mainly DYDX, GAINS, SNX and Liquity. There are also some stablecoin projects with relatively low market value, such as Reflexer and OHM. This is also a project with a small market value, and some people are paying attention to it. I am optimistic about derivatives mainly because the overall performance of on-chain derivatives in this round of bear market is stronger than the market, mainly from GMX. GMX basically helped Arbitrum contribute half of its TVL at its peak, and also has a high DAU. . Then the fundamentals of the entire track are still relatively good, and I have recently seen a lot of innovative products, such as Apollox, which provides higher leverage and more gambling-oriented products. From the perspective of the overall fundamentals and the penetration of people around us, derivatives are gradually improving. Therefore, derivatives are a track that I am more optimistic about in the past year. Stablecoins are another situation. Although the market is very good and the prospects are promising, the current projects do not actually have any particularly good targets. The leading stablecoin projects each have their own problems. In my opinion, the entire market trend of this current wave of stablecoins is nearing its end. That is, this wave of RWA, from MakerDao to the recent Frax, has actually been officially launched. In the investigation some time ago, I personally did not include these two. In addition, I pay attention to Staking. In fact, there are relatively few Staking targets, and it was a relatively good target in the past period. However, overall during this period, it basically followed the trend of Ethereum, and there was not much There have been many changes in the overall Staking track recently, and Vitalik also has some ideas. So when it comes to this specific issue, the tracks I am optimistic about are mainly derivatives, and the other two, such as stablecoins and staking, are relatively more general.
Xin：I think based on the overall industry logic, I still prefer the style switching model. So I think the first point is that I agree that Defi may rise first. Because according to the hype logic of an industry, everyone likes stories and themes, so first of all, the increase in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum will drive the TVL of Defi to increase, which is a natural reaction of the price. After TVL rose, in fact, one of the most profound problems Defi now faces is that there is no money coming in, especially when the interest rates on U.S. debt are high. One of the hedges is RWA, so I will allocate part of RWA to hedge the outflow of Defi funds, which is equivalent to helping you allocate treasury bonds. When the attractiveness of government bonds was not as attractive as the Defi asset, such as the bull market at that time, I remember that annualized rates of 10% and 20% were normal. So when the bull market picks up and the overall Defi rate of return rises, there will definitely be funds coming in. From this perspective, I might first consider which ones will be the first to receive capital inflows. At least I think I will consider configuring a few Defi faucets that can store water, including lending, MakerDao, etc. RWA or some other Defi leaders, it depends on its own chips and market value. But in Defi, I think there may be several important leading Stacks. I will allocate at least a little bit to each of them, including Dex, lending, and Staking, as mentioned just now, I think there will be some. I am also very optimistic about derivatives, but a very important problem in the derivatives market right now is that there are a lot of projects in the primary market. I dont actively check out this track specifically, but one or two new perpdexs find their way to me every week. We may still allocate some heads on the second level first, but we will pay closer attention to some new derivatives to see if there are any opportunities for innovation. We may look at the old ones like DYDX and the new ones, such as vertex and hyperliquid. I think they all have opportunities. GMX is a bit lacking in innovation right now, but don’t rule out that the team may have new improvements. I just mentioned the track of decentralized stablecoins. I also agree with the guest’s point of view. There is indeed no project that is particularly eye-catching, but I am looking forward to new ways to play in the bull market. Including prisma, which has become popular recently. I am not saying that I should buy this target, it is just a case analysis. Similar to this new liquid staking token, there may be a batch of new liquid staking tokens used as underlying assets to make stablecoins, including restaking tokens after restaking is launched, which may be used as the underlying assets of stablecoins. I think there may be some new ones. How to play. I might wait and see if there is such a new online project. If the valuation is not too outrageous, I think there is still a chance to participate. Liquid staking I think now may be a good time to settle. At the end of the year, I was very bearish on lido, but now everyone has realized that this problem is that the proportion of lido is too high. Including centralization, when you realize that it is a problem, I think it may be the time when a secondary market can slowly start to consider building a position. So maybe I have to observe, from the end of the year to the beginning of next year, before the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, I think it is an opportunity. Ethereum is also relatively weak now, which just gives the market a chance to breathe. When Bitcoin reaches a certain height and stops, I think the Ethereum ecosystem will catch up. So I am still optimistic about Ethernet as a whole. Although it has many problems now, I think it is a good thing. When problems are exposed and everyone starts discussing, it is a good thing for the second level.
Zheng Siwei:In the early days of the bear market, my own idea was to see if I could first find one or two relatively large tracks that have not been paid attention to by everyone in this round, or have not even appeared in this round, and will turn out to be the best in the next round. Out of this world. It’s a bit like standing in 2018 and 2019, and seeing GameFi or NFT in 2020 and 2021. A scene that was shocking. What makes me disappointed is that after watching it for almost two years and looking at a lot of projects, I personally have not found a track that is not there now and will have explosive growth in the next round. This represents a quite large investment opportunity, but it was not found. I think there may be two points here. One is that I may be wrong. Some narratives keep coming out, but I cant accept them. It may be that I lack imagination and that I dont have such a long-term vision. The second one is that I am more focused, because I mainly invest in the secondary market, so I only look at projects in the secondary market, and I have much less experience than in the primary market. Its possible that whats truly more innovative and cutting-edge is happening at level one. So I gave up on this goal in the middle and second half of the race and started to look at which of the existing tracks had bigger opportunities. What I see more now is L2 and NFT. Let me briefly explain why these two are the case. First of all, I think L2 will be like L1 in the previous round. In fact, I think in every round there are some public chains, platforms, and infrastructure. In 2015 and 2016, many people would want to make something similar to Bitcoin, but with improvements to it, such as The degree of throughput accommodation is better, or it has privacy. In 2020 and 2021, it will be the killer story of Ethereum. I think now at this point in time, it may be a wrong view. If I want to start a business and build a chain, I will not do things like Ethereum killer or Bitcoin killer. Because now I think the general trend is to use Ethereum as the core and develop L2 or even L3 around it. So I have a feeling that the battlefield in the next round will shift to L2 itself. In addition to the four familiar kings of Optimism, arbitrum, Zksync, and Starknet, there will also be some others. If we learn from the experience of the previous round, L1 will appear one after another. Almost every powerful player will prosper once, and some precipitation will be left after the prosperity. For example, we see today that BNB Chain may have retained more users from the sinking market, mainly gaming. Solana will have its own unique story, and will have its own rhythm after it becomes rug because it is tied to some strong capital and strong exchanges. I wonder if the next round of L2 will be like this. Something will happen to it. Then whether its own token or the stack above, will it have a wealth effect for a period of time and attract a wave of people? . After this wave of people gained a wave here, they were attracted by another L2. In the end, maybe after the next round, some L2s can accumulate more users and ecological projects, and some may end in a wave of games. I would consider it an opportunity. The second one is NFT. To be honest, I would have considered ideas like Defi and games in 2018 and 2019, but I felt that I still lacked imagination. NFT was something I had never thought about at the time, so when it exploded , the way it appeared in front of me was difficult for me to get at once. Therefore, in the early days of NFT, there were many investment opportunities that were not seized. Now I feel that although it has experienced an outbreak, it is still in a relatively early stage. I agree with the founder of shima token labs. He has a point of view, which roughly means that if the tokens we are talking about are certificates and money, and ERC 20 is these, NFT represents things. We are also on this network woven by the blockchain, issuing these assets that are relatively trustworthy and relatively solid. There are some things and things that correspond to the money and things in our real world. I rather agree with this view. Todays NFT is actually still mainly PFP, and it is far from reaching that kind of uneven and polymorphic situation. Now PFP has its own problems. I think it is a good model, but many projects are opened in the wrong way, so I think NFT as a whole is in an early stage, and most of these projects are now based on trial and error. So I think there is still some room for growth, and I think there will be more of these two. When it comes to specific targets, I have a headache. I just talked about good projects and good prices. Some of the projects I am optimistic about are not cheap, and there are some cheap ones that I don’t seem to like.
Alex：You just talked about NFT, would you be more inclined to allocate some NFT specific targets, or allocate some NFT-related projects, such as NFT lending, NFT perp, etc.?
Zheng Siwei: If it is a large position, my first choice must be the tokens of those projects. Because the targets of those project infrastructure are better in terms of liquidity and certainty. The advantage of NFT assets is that the upper limit of possible increases will be very high. Even if there is no situation like punk and BAYC, I think there will be more than one hundred times increase in the next round, calculated by U. But I think the certainty is relatively low, which means that the yield rate of NFT assets is very low. In a bull market, tens of thousands of projects may be born, some in PFP, some in metaverse, some in land, and some in arts, but at least I personally don’t have the confidence to grasp a few. Theres a chance Id have to throw 20 before I could cover one. Divided in this way, even if I cover one hundred times, then I have invested 20 times. In fact, the overall rate of return is not high. So my overall assets will still give priority to those infrastructures. When I look at those PFPs or those artistic ones, I will buy them when I really feel very confident and can see the shadow of the factors I want in them, but this position It wont be big. Because it is not like a token, today there is eternal liquidity directly on AMM as my counterparty, and I can sell it directly. Once things go poorly, it is very difficult for me to exit those positions.
Alex：I will also share my personal thoughts. I agree with the so-called barbell strategy mentioned by the founder of Bankless before. He believes that assets should be placed on both ends, or on one end, assets that you think may be more stable and certain. Representatives may be Bitcoin and Ethereum. Fang, the second representative may be the blue-chip projects that we now feel have very solid fundamentals and relatively wide moats, such as AAVE, which is a loan company, dex Uni, etc. I think that on the left side of the barbell, our institution has selected quite a few targets, including some of the derivatives just mentioned. In fact, some of the more head-turning derivatives can also be classified into this category, and its certainty is relatively strong. But its problem is that as Teacher Zheng just mentioned, the elasticity is not necessarily very high. For example, Uni may already have a market value of several billions. In the next round, it will rise 5 or 6 times, and the one or two hundred The market value of 100 million is actually terrifying. In addition, it is a business project itself, and its gravity is pulled downward by business indicators. In addition, it may not be as good as some purely narrative projects, and it is difficult for you to verify and falsify its true value. My current situation is that I have basically selected the more certain projects on the left side of the barbell, and I have also made some configurations, including aave, uni, and some Ethereum and lido. The biggest headache now is what to choose on the right side. Teacher Zheng also mentioned just now that he has been looking for projects similar to NFT, GameFi, or Defi summer that exploded in the next cycle, which may have hundreds of times of income. This kind of target is indeed difficult. select. But there are some alternatives that I haven’t bought yet, and I’m still in the process of thinking about them. One of the alternatives is something related to the concepts of blockchain and AI. We have heard some narrative logic. Including some time ago, Alis former chief strategy officer Zeng Ming said at a Wanxiang meeting that he was optimistic about the combination of AI and Web3. The core logic is that the proportion of AI in the entire production system and the entire society will increase in the future. It is getting higher and higher, and it runs and executes based on machines and codes. For such collaboration, transactions and economic settlement between machines, it is very reasonable to use a transparent, trustworthy, code-based blockchain as the underlying layer. In addition, many service projects driven by AI require an economic system and token system to distribute, settle and allocate incentives. He sees great promise in combining the two. Of course, believe it or not, this thing really requires imagination, and there are not many such projects that have been successfully completed at present. I have heard a very enlightening logic, that is, there are three years of technological miracles in human history. One is that in 1666, modern scientists such as Newton joined the Royal Council of Science. In that year, he made a large number of discoveries about basic physics and mathematics, including calculus, the law of universal gravitation, etc. Another one is that in 1905, Einstein published four papers in succession, including the photoelectric effect, theory of relativity, etc., which became a large number of basic theories in the new stage of physics. And 2023, which is the year we are in now, will be regarded as the next great miracle year when we look back in the future. AI has officially had a strong emergence effect in this year, for the improvement of productivity, content, When we look at the results of the emergence of algorithms later, we will find that 2023 is a very representative year, that is, AI will account for a very large proportion in our production process and life in the future, far exceeding our current imagination. . So based on such a big deduction, it is the possible combination of AI and blockchain. Although there is no particularly smooth business case now, it is precisely because of this situation that many people are not buying this story. It may be like what we saw with NFT in 2018 and 2019, and it will be in 2016 and 2017. When we discuss the situation of Defi, we all feel that it seems to make sense, but it is difficult to prove it. It may be such a point. Another potential target option is the TG ecosystem, because the current user volume of the TG ecosystem is no less than that of WeChat or many traditional Web2 social ecosystems. It is now actively trying to integrate Web3 products, including its own blockchain main network, many TG bots in some application layers, etc. I think there will be quite a lot of business opportunities when this user base is introduced. In fact, many TG Bots have now implemented Dex transactions. Two days ago, I saw a TG bot that started to make derivatives, etc. I think there are quite a lot of opportunities for this application layer to go from zero to one, and from one to ten, but the target selection is still being considered.
Ballast stone selection
Alex: We mentioned that the left side of the barbell strategy is the deterministic assets. What kind of assets would you choose as a ballast position?
Xin：I may be more inclined to allocate some ether-based stocks as a bet during this cycle, similar to Bitcoin, Arbitrum, Optimism, and Lido. I regard them all as belonging to the etheric system. Maybe I don’t know how to touch them after buying them. In addition, there is one point in the industry that was not mentioned just now. I would like to add that it is the Bitcoin ecological project. We have actually invested in some projects in the primary market. I think there are also some targets in the secondary market that can be observed, including stacks, thorchain, and then some others. This does not mean that it is definitely a good buying point now, but I think it is quite interesting to pay attention to some projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem to see if there are opportunities to make some innovations.
Lawrence：I just choose Ether, because I believe that Ether will definitely flip Bitcoin in the future, so I will choose Ether. Maybe some short-term narrative positions will still be exchanged for ether after taking profits or exiting at a loss. I am etheric.
Zheng Siwei:I think the concept of ballast stones is particularly good and was something I was missing in the last round. It not only affects the ratio of returns and risks in an entire investment portfolio, but in many cases is actually a guarantee of ones psyche. I think most people want to make a lot of money in the bull market, but if they allocate something more radical, the fluctuations will actually be unbearable, which will affect investment and deform the operation. For my own ballast stones, I would choose those with greater certainty and less multiples, because I have to solve some needs in life, or set some small goals for myself. Perhaps more suitable targets are like L2, like the more legitimate White Horse L2, like Optimism. As Teacher Xin just mentioned about the Ethereum system, first of all, I think the entire industry will thrive around Ethereum, so I think L2 is a relatively obvious opportunity. In terms of texture, these four are also more certain than the others. Although the increase may not be as high as others, I think ballast stones pursue certainty. That is to say, after I choose these ballast stones myself, no matter how the targets in other combinations outside fluctuate, whether they rise or fall sharply, I I feel that no matter how bad this bull market is, I wont get any worse. This will actually be helpful to other investments and make me more calm. As for bits and ether, I basically won’t allocate them during most of the bull market. But there will be two time periods that I will consider. One is that from the end of the bear market to the beginning of the bull market just mentioned, everyones emotions are quite divided. When the market does not have so much consensus, in order to prevent shortfalls and on the one hand, the retracement is very small, I will choose Bitcoin or Ether. The second is that the overall bull market has been rising for a while. I feel that it will continue to rise, but it may be close to the end. I may consider replacing all the copycats in my hands with bits or ether. Because in the crypto cycle of the currency circle, bulls are short and bears are long, especially at the top of the bull market, its time period is very short. When the short-lived bubble bursts. The retracement amplitude of Bitcoin and Ether will be much smaller than that of the counterfeit, and it will even rebound a second time, giving me a chance to ship. It means that in the later period, in order to avoid the risk of a sharp asset retracement, I will consider switching the position back to bits and ether.
Alex：You mentioned that the L2 project will be used as a ballast stone option. Currently, L2 projects actually have the most intense competition at the top, including Optimism and Arbitrum, which are relatively high in market value. Of these two projects, if you or the first-class warehouse want to choose a heavier position, which one will you prefer?
Zheng Siwei:I have discussed this issue with some colleagues, but everyone has different opinions. We internally call them the Four Kings, which refers to the four who have the highest financing, have the blessing of top VCs, and have relatively outstanding teams from 2020 or 2021. When I classify it myself, I use two dimensions to divide it into four quadrants. One is long-term and the other is short-term. I think this is actually more obvious, that is, ZK series, such as zksync and starknet, are more long-term. Technically speaking, they represent the more ultimate kind of L2, relying on code rather than relying on people to complete the entire L2 work, but it does require technological progress and long iterations. So we have also seen that now, in terms of ecological project activity and TVL, if we exclude the factors of airdrops, Optimism and Arbitrum are indeed in the lead. This is a pros and cons. In another dimension, this word is hard to find. I don’t know which word to look for. It’s neither orthodoxy nor capital. But I do feel that Optimism is more community-driven than Arbitrum. The advantage of Optimism is that its core team has a relatively high status in the entire Ethereum developer circle, because it has been in the Ethereum circle very early and has a better relationship with various capitals, so we see Many institutions and exchanges like Base or more prestigious institutions and exchanges will choose to do business on Optimism. I dont know what this adjective should be. ZKsync and starknet also feel like this. They happen to fall into four different quadrants. Its really hard to say which position is heavier, Optimism or Arbitrum. To be honest, I mainly look at the price. I think it may be difficult to open a very big gap between their TVL and final valuation in the next round, so I will look at the price at this time.
Speculations on the next wave of narratives
Alex: Mr. Zheng mentioned just now that in the past year or two, he has been looking for opportunities like the previous wave of NFT, GameFi or Defi. Although the answer is still unclear, we still have to take a guess. What do you think are the possible narrative engines in the next wave of narratives?
Xin：Personally, I am more optimistic about the concept of consumer app recently. Recently, European and American institutions have actually been investing in consumer apps, which are not necessarily Web3, but Web3 can actually be a type of consumer app. The relatively popular friend.tech can also be considered. The so-called consumer app actually refers to C-end users. They are not so degenerate about wallets and cryptos, but they can use fiat currency to buy ether, for example, or directly use fiat currency to pay on the blockchain. The user experience is relatively smooth. of. For example, if I go to buy a friend.tech room, I may not have crypto, but I can use apple pay to pay a dollar amount, and then it can buy it for me, and it may be converted into ether behind the scenes. But this consumer-side experience, whether it is Ethereum’s 4337 abstract account, or other solutions, because everyone wants to achieve this goal, on the wallet side or infrastructure side, everyone has this idea and promotion, including After some progress has been made, corresponding applications will naturally appear. So I am more optimistic about this category. It also includes NFT, but I think NFT may be integrated into every application. For example, your avatar or the pictures you post or your chat content are all a kind of NFT, and they will be subtly integrated into this consumer app. , in a larger trend, so this is a point that I am more excited about.
Alex: I understand what Mr. Do you think last year’s stepn is somewhat similar to it?
Xin：I think its a bit similar, but the threshold may need to be lowered because its financial attributes are a bit too strong. If it has some financial attributes but is not that strong, for example, it does not require me to use a table to calculate the daily income, and then look at the price of the token. I actually think friend.tech has done a good job in this regard, that is, you don’t necessarily need to pay attention to the price of the token of the project itself. The settlement may be Ether or USDT, so I don’t have to worry about the fluctuation of the local currency for the money I make every day. I have to throw it away every day and collect gold every day. This action is very annoying and anti-human. Ordinary users will not rush to Binance to smash their coins. Only crypto users will do this. So if you want to make a consumer app, I think you must first abandon the influence of the local currency. In fact, I think this is a good thing, that is, the project team no longer publishes for the purpose of issuing coins, but needs to consider clearly that users really have the need to purchase and can generate revenue, and then think about whether your own protocol is necessary to issue coins. If it is true that users can actually benefit from purchasing the tokens of your protocol, then I think its performance value can also be seen. If there really is no reason, and this coin is purely for issuance, and users have no use for it, then maybe in this ecosystem, everyone thinks it is a dispensable point. I think that in the next bull market in the future, everyone will pay more attention to endogenous protocol income rather than token tokenomics in token design.
Alex：Teacher Xin just mentioned a point. I think a subtext is that Web3 applications still need Fi, because what Fi represents is highly related to human natures greed and gambling. In fact, this is often unavoidable and can be said to be one of the features of Web3. However, this Fi cannot be too complicated. It requires a lot of calculations like Stepn. It may not be understood. For ordinary users, the cognitive load is too much. Its heavy. So like friend.tech, I may set a price, and I will determine whether the key will rise or fall. The only factor that determines its price fluctuation is this, which is relatively simple. Teacher Xin just mentioned that many institutions are investing in consumer apps. In addition to social ones like friend.tech, are there any other trends that have formed a trend? For example, which type of consumer apps may be more popular among institutions.
Xin：I think social is still a relatively common category. In addition to it, there are prediction markets, some light applications, check-ins, and tools. For example, recommender systems. I think there are more tools and light applications. This category may add some financial incentives to make you more addicted. You may not have any incentive to check in at ordinary times. With some financial incentives or even some social elements, you may compare yourself with your friends, and the motivation to check in will increase. Or similar to calendar, you have needs, so can it be linked to your on-chain identity in Web3, etc., social DID, and market prediction, including what you just mentioned with AI. Whether the combination can generate new content in human-computer interaction, or use the data on the chain to generate some new content, some of this is also being explored.
Alex: What do you think the next wave of narrative engines might be, according to Mr. Zheng? You just mentioned that you are searching hard but there is no clear answer yet. Do you have any alternative answers or guesses?
Zheng Siwei:My own thinking is this. I think the crypto industry, or what we commonly call the currency circle, has been doing two things for a long time. The first thing is to try to make every possible link trustless and trustless, that is to say, use code to replace human participation. This will become a familiar word called decentralization, such as decentralization. Whether it is decentralized CDN, decentralized storage, decentralized network structure or decentralized payment, there are all kinds of things. This is what I think I have been doing. No matter how much demand there is for what is done, at least it is a relatively politically correct thing in the currency circle. So we will see a lot of this, track stuff like DePIN. I think this thing is very valuable in the long run to maintain the long-term and stable operation of Bitcoin and Ethereum in this world, but such projects or things are not the dominant factor in our bull market engine. It is a real growth in fundamentals and technology, but it is not the trigger for a bull market. I think what is more realistic is that another thing that people do in the long run is actually to pursue wealth. I think the ignition of the bull market is when a wave of people first make a lot of money because of one or two things or one or two tracks, and then other people get wind of it and come, and finally people from outside the circle come in. It is such a process. So no matter which one it is, it must have a relatively strong wealth effect in order to start a bull market. Specific to the track, in addition to the L2 and NFT mentioned just now, I think there is a high probability that this round of games will still explode. I was particularly impressed by the last round. Since the bear market, I have been reading investment and financing news summarized by some media every month. I have seen that in terms of the number of projects, games account for a very large proportion, often even accounting for one-third. . With so many people and so many projects invested in this track, there is a high probability that it will explode. It is very likely that a popular product like Axie appeared first, triggering a huge wealth effect. Projects that had been prepared for two or three years before have released their own benefits or launched games at this time to promote these, and finally some huge Some CX projects have even been launched to end the cycle of this sector. I think the game has a high probability of producing such a result under the influence of so many inputs. But I think it’s quite difficult to choose which target to target, because today we saw some works that want to compete with 3A masterpieces. To be honest, in terms of playability, I think the current projects in the currency circle are at least on the second level. , I didn’t see a game that really made me want to play it myself. Logically speaking, in terms of causes, I think so many people are flocking to Web3 to make games, probably because the first thing is that it is easier to raise funds. If you look at the VCs and investors who are facing Web2, and you say you want to make a game and want to get tens of millions of financing, I think it is not as easy as here. Then there are no regulatory constraints here, and there are no restrictions such as multiple version numbers. The third is the way they harvest. In addition to in-game income, there are also many other exit methods such as tokens, which has led to an influx of people. But when I look at the projects that have been released in the second level, I think the playability is not good enough, so I think the game will explode, but it will still explode based on the theme of economic effects. The same goes for Defi, because what Teacher Xin just said is very good, the sector will rotate. First of all, the rotation probability of Defi is indeed relatively high. One is what Mr. ,ether. This is something that comes naturally. In addition, the round was indeed ignited by Defi summer first, so the market expectations will be relatively high, and like the L2, NFT, and GameFi I talked about before, I think L2 will be more likely to run through the entire cycle, just like the previous round Same as L1. It started to rise in 2020, even in the first half of 2021 and after 519 in 2021. Solonas strong performance was maintained until April 2022 even before Luna collapsed. So I think L2 will be a line that runs through the entire cycle. As for games, I think if someone can design a one-cycle Merrill Lynch clock or sector rotation, it would be more appropriate to place it in the mid-to-late stage. One characteristic of games caused by the wealth effect is that the first wave of people who make money must dare to continue to expand their investment, and those who have not yet started playing the game must dare to experience FOMO. In the early stages of a bull market, the publics psychology is actually not sure whether this is a bull market. People who make money in the first wave will want to make a little money and leave quickly. What if it falls again. He didn’t dare to join later because most of GameFi’s projects were relatively Ponzi. When people reach the mid-to-late stage of a bull market, their psyche will actually feel like they are numb, and they will be happy no matter what, counting money every day. In this case, the mind is no longer rational. Regardless of whether he participates intentionally or unintentionally, he will participate relatively relaxedly. At this time, the entire scale and cycle of the game sector will be longer. I don’t know about NFT. It may happen at some point in this stage, and it may end up with those idiots. We say that investors have the order of entering the market first and then entering the market. In fact, entrepreneurs also have the order of entering the market first and then entering the market. The really best thing is that those who have not given up in this round of bear market will definitely earn the most in the next round. a group of people. Then there will definitely be a group of entrepreneurs who may have withdrawn from this bear market. They have been waiting and watching without paying so much attention. Only when the entire cycle reaches the middle or even the middle or late stages, will they recover and then get off the market. project, the time given to him at that time was actually running out. He may have chosen to make quick money. At this time, it is easy to produce some copycat disks, or even local dogs. I think the whole rotation is roughly like this. There may be a track that has never been invented before, but I didnt find it. Finally, let me make one small point. I did not spend so much energy searching for L1 projects this round, because I am more optimistic that the main battlefield will shift to L2.
Lawrence：My point of view is very similar to that of Mr. Zheng. I believe that the engine of the bull market, no matter which track or narrative, must have the characteristic of being able to bring about a good money-making effect or wealth effect. From this perspective, I may currently consider three, one is social, one is game, and the other one is meme. I actually have some personal experiences. In 2019 and 2020, I talked to some of my former Internet colleagues and said that Bitcoin and Ethereum were very good. At that time, I was committed to investing in Bitcoin. I said you can buy some, but they ignored me at the time. By 2021, two colleagues came to ask me how to buy shiba coins, and another person asked me whether to buy dogecoin or shiba coins. Judging from my personal experience, including my observations of people around me, what can truly transform a person into a crypto user is mostly driven by the money-making effect. Of course, as our industry becomes more and more mature in the future, more people may come here from the perspective that we can truly provide a better product. I think that in this cycle, the situation will not completely become like this. It may still be driven by the money-making effect or the wealth effect. From this perspective, I think the narrative may need to be able to bring a good wealth effect. From the user side, both social and game may introduce large-scale users. Because judging from the recent attempts of social, the integration with Fi will not be so easy. Of course, it is also possible that a really good team has not yet emerged, with really good ideas to make this thing more lasting and with a better model. Complexity can make this matter achieve a relatively long-term operation. The game may be better in this regard. Its natural economic system will be more complicated. I can make it through some designs. Like what Mr. If something similar comes out in the next bull market, I think it will be very worthy of attention. In the process of introducing users, it can embed some radical designs, and then use the money-making effect to attract more people. The last one is meme. If we regard all memes as a whole as a track, there may be relatively few memes in the previous cycle. In this cycle, I think meme, as a segmented track, may have the fastest growth. One of the tracks, and there are also some more subdivided tracks, such as TG bot, which was quite popular some time ago. Judging from my own experience, I think the explosion of certain memes may also become the engine of the bull market. I will also pay more attention to the calculation and stability, and the complexity that can be embedded in the entire design of calculation and stability, including its narrative. Although it has been falsified in the past, I think that under the new conditions of looser liquidity, there is Some of the better-designed ones are more stable and may also become the source of some wealth effects.
Alex：I will briefly talk about it, just a guess, not that I am optimistic about anything. Because being optimistic means that you have basically understood the logic, and I have not yet understood both of my conjectures. The first one is the AI-related concepts just mentioned. The core logic point is that in the long run, AI will develop very quickly and will gradually penetrate into crypto-related fields. I think this is bound to happen. It’s not that AI applications are applied to crypto, but that AI is penetrating into crypto. And I think in the next three or four years, everyone will find that the speed of AI development is far faster than we all expected. So I think when this happens, AI-related concepts, whether they have really good business models, or just in the form of memes, or just in the form of narratives, may grow very fast. , the reason is that its current fundamentals are still zero, that is, it is still in a stage of pure storytelling, and there are not even many projects. There may be some secondary projects, but overall they are not very formed. So it could be a process from zero to one, one to a hundred, with a lot of potential. A more representative one with a relatively large market value is worldcoin, which is a project co-initiated by Sam Altman, the founder of Open AI. I think this project itself is very gimmicky, and it is deeply connected with the current AI leaders, which makes me feel that its ambition is relatively high. For a track like this, AI and crypto, I think it is more in line with one of the characteristics of many grand narratives that can bring about huge bubbles. First, it is difficult to falsify. Second, in the long run, it has a relatively large vision and broad scope. social value. This is a bit like Defi, because the narrative we told at the time was that decentralized finance engulfed the traditional world, including the software engulfing the world during the Internet bubble. These were very grand narratives, and its business logic was indeed reasonable. of. The second one is the TG ecology thing we just talked about. I think the underlying value provided by blockchain is, first, that it reduces transaction costs. This so-called transaction cost is an economic concept. It is not about trading, but the cost of mutual trust and cooperation between people. Currently we sign a contract, we need to sign the contract, there are legal costs, including cross-border transfer fees and the like. On the blockchain, through code and transparent ledgers, transaction costs are greatly reduced. In addition, blockchain provides a free market. No matter how large the market in the traditional world is, it has boundaries, at least with national borders as the boundaries. Cross-border transactions are still not that convenient. But when all people conduct transactions on the blockchain, whether it is the United States and China, or Palestine and Israel, there is no discrimination. The market is infinite and free. I think it provides these two things. Well, the TG ecosystem has made good use of these two things, because first, TG is probably the social platform with the least administrative control and censorship at present, or an instant messaging platform. It is actually the same as the free attributes of the blockchain. There are natural similarities. Another piece is that when the concentration of users on TG is so large, there are also many potential collaboration opportunities between them. Then I think some consumer apps that Mr. Xin just mentioned will be born in the TG ecosystem. These applications may come out that are messy, may even have some evil properties, are related to peoples greed for gambling, or even have more dark attributes. But there will also be some better applications. Basically, the TG ecosystem is still a process from zero to one. I think its potential is still relatively large. These may be two potential trends in the next bull market that I think.
Work and study in the bear market
Alex: Finally, let me talk about a lighter topic. In everyone’s opinion, is the investment research work during the bear market any different from the previous bull market when it was very exciting? In addition, what do you do in your spare time outside of investment research?
Lawrence：My time is mainly spent with my family. My daughter was born during a bear market cycle, and I spent more time with her. The other thing is to spend more time communicating with friends.
Zheng Siwei:We include the entire first-class warehouse. In fact, the working hours in the bear market are relatively long, similar to the bull market, except that they are not as busy. There are not so many dopamines secreted by the body to stimulate themselves every day, so the time spent watching the trading market software It’s also a lot less, and overall it’s more relaxing. I do two things in my spare time, one is podcasting. I started getting into podcasts last year, and I feel like there are many high-quality podcasts out there that are quite suitable for me. Sometimes I get tired from watching projects, or from watching K-line reviews, so I listen to podcasts at 3 or 4 p.m. to relax and learn something new. The second is to also look at some AI-related things. This is not to follow the trend, because in fact, in 2015 and 2016, I had not entered the encryption industry. At that time, I was investing in US stocks, and what I was looking at at that time was AI. What impressed me particularly deeply was that at that time, AI went through a cycle, and there was a bubble in the primary market. it
