Original - Odaily
Organizing - Lucaskog
Recently, the spot Bitcoin ETF was officially approved, and market sentiment is high. However, the price of Bitcoin did not break through the US$50,000 mark as expected. Instead, the price of ETH strongly exceeded US$2,600, and the Ethereum ecosystem once again received constant attention.
On January 11, Odaily held a Space event, inviting 8 guests to have an in-depth discussion on the issue of the launch of BTC spot ETF. Will institutional entry become a new starting point for Long Bull? The guest lineup is as follows: Mindao, founder of dforce, OKX Venture researcher Kiwi, Gate Venture managing partner Kevin, PFR Capital Jason, crypto KOL aunt, crypto trader Paulwei, unicorn and little fisherman.
The following is abbreviated content. For details, pleaseListen to space review
Odaily: On January 11, the US SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETF products, including the closely watched BlackRock, Ark and Grayscale. What do guests think of this approval? What does it mean for the crypto market? Does it represent a loosening of regulatory policies?
Mindao: The application for ETFs started in 2013, so being 10 years late is a good thing for retail investors. In the past three to five years, the stigma in the U.S. Congress has been very serious. The passage of ETF marks the beginning of the destigmatization of Bitcoin, which is a milestone event.
Kiwi: Although the SEC has approved the Bitcoin ETF, its recognition of Bitcoin is still relatively low. From a long-term perspective, the adoption of Bitcoin ETF enhances market confidence
Kevin: From an insider’s perspective, the approval process is step-by-step. Grayscale sued the SEC, which promoted the Bitcoin ETF application. It is a long-term positive for the encryption market and can bring more Web3 users. It has realized the connection between the encryption field and the traditional field, and all capital can participate in Bitcoin investment legally and compliantly. However, the volatility of Bitcoin will become smaller in the future, making it a target for macro hedge funds. The SEC is relatively exclusive to crypto, and it is difficult to pass a second crypto ETF. The Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission will also accelerate the promotion of spot Bitcoin and support spot delivery.
Jason: No matter from the financial aspect or from the talent aspect, it is undoubtedly beneficial. The encryption market has caused difficulties for various countries, causing each country to take certain measures against cryptocurrency. With the adoption of Bitcoin ETF, the regulatory level will gradually relax the supervision of cryptocurrencies.
aunt: From last year’s FTX thunder to the present year, the industry has been in a trough, and the collapse of the bubble has deepened outsiders’ negative views on us. The passage of the Bitcoin ETF is tantamount to a shot of reassurance;
unicorn: Supervision is, to a certain extent, a fraud on retail investors, a kind of manipulation in which the weak and the strong prey on the weak. The adoption of ETF will enlarge the Bitcoin liquidity pool, the price of Bitcoin will become stable, and it will be difficult to have a plunge like 312. Some speculative risk investors will switch Bitcoin positions to more volatile ones such as Ethereum. Big cryptocurrency.
Paulwei: From a bottom-up perspective, the origin of Bitcoin is anti-authoritative. The adoption of ETF will make Bitcoin authoritative and attract large funds while attracting more retail investors to enter the encryption market.
little fisherman: After the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF, it did not achieve the skyrocketing we imagined. My view on the ETF is that it is not crazy at the moment, but it is indeed a new origin of cryptocurrency in the future. Let’s analyze the impact on the encryption market from two points. The first point is that the destigmatization of Bitcoin has expanded investment channels and led to the inflow of institutional funds from Web2. Another point is the value of the times. Against the background of the return of the US dollar, spot Bitcoin is nothing short of a major benefit.
Odaily: After the approval of spot ETFs, some believe that $4 billion in incremental funds will enter the market after the first day of spot ETF trading. Of course, there are also those who refute this view. In your opinion, how much incremental funds can the advent of spot ETFs bring to the crypto market?
Mindao: I don’t think there will be a large influx of funds in the short term. The market share of Bitcoin ETF has reached about 2%. It will take some time for the market to slowly digest the existing funds.
Kiwi: The adoption of spot ETFs will definitely bring about a long-term bull market. In the long run, large funds can still be invested. In the short term, the funds have been fully press in, there will be a negative reaction and there will be no entry of large funds. In the medium to long term, along with the Bitcoin halving, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and a series of other measures. After the market bottom, large amounts of capital will enter
Kevin: I am firmly optimistic about the long-term value of Bitcoin. The four-year cycle of Bitcoin will gradually be smoothed out and gradually match the traditional financial cycle. Regarding funding sources, the fastest funding sources are like seed funding, which may see hedge funds entering within a month. I think it will take at least three months. Larger funds such as public funds and private equity funds need investment advisors to communicate with their managers to purchase Bitcoin ETFs.
Jason: It seems that only a billion has been approved. I think the proven significance to the cryptocurrency circle is greater than how much capital inflow it can actually promote. Many domestic financial news reports have brought more exposure
aunt: From the perspective of a retail investor, some investors who invest in stocks such as Coinbase will also come to buy Bitcoin spot. The specific amount of funds flowing in is difficult to estimate.
Paulwei: Don’t overestimate the short-term impact, and don’t underestimate the long-term impact. In the short term, due to the influence of selling, even if we know the volume of short-term buying, we cannot see the short-term direction. In the long term, there may be 2 to 4 times more room to cover the exchange rate of the benchmark BTC/Tesla stock.
Odaily: After the passage of the Bitcoin ETF, the market’s expectations for the passage of the ETH spot ETF have increased. What do the guests think of the next approval situation? Can you tell us about the key time points?
Mindao: After Ethereum was converted to POS, Ethereum was designed to be more like securities. I think the key time point is May, when the SEC will approve the Ethereum ETF, but it is unlikely to pass.
Kiwi: I think the Ethereum ETF will definitely pass. However, the overall scale of Ethereum is relatively small, so the approval time may be relatively long. During this period, it is better to pay attention to the Cancun upgrade, Layer 2 track, Lido, etc.
Kevin: I analyze it from two angles. In the short term, the expected overlap between the launch of the testnet and the Ethereum ETF in May may be too high, and there is a high probability that it will not pass in May. In the long term, I think it is possible that in the second half of this year or before the end of the year, I think there is a 60% certainty that it can be passed. Then we can look at the second time node, which is the US election. In the end, whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party will come to power. If the Republican Party comes to power If so, some SEC chairs will most likely be replaced.
Jason: Prioritize the issue of whether it can pass. I think Kenya can pass. But the possibility is much lower than that of Bitcoin, because after Ethereum is converted to POS, I think it is becoming more and more securitized. In the long term, as time goes by, it is still unclear whether Ethereums technology will be surpassed by POH chains like Solana.
aunt: I think there are three factors. First, V God, the founder of Ethereum, is still active in the encryption circle. Second, let’s see if institutions such as BlackRock have any tendencies. Third, after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the second half of the year, models such as liquidity staking in Ethereum will turn Ethereum into an interest-bearing asset in addition to the U.S. dollar.
Paulwei: I think it will be longer than expected. First, there are many factors behind Ethereum, including high scalability, programmability, etc., which will bring security issues. The second point is that the price of Ethereum fluctuates greatly.
little fisherman: It mainly depends on who will promote the Ethereum ETF. And with the case of Bitcoin ETF passing, I am more inclined to pass it.
Odaily: Judging from market trends, after the spot ETF passed yesterday, Bitcoin did not rise in a straight line as expected. Instead, ETH headed up and exceeded US$2,600. What do the guests think of the changes in the market? What predictions do you have for the subsequent market trends?
little fisherman: I personally prefer the positive market, and we are more expected to move towards the Ethereum and BRC ecology.
Paulwei: I prefer the rebound in the Ethereum exchange rate to be a short-term rebound. From the perspective of market rules, information spreads very quickly at present, and it is difficult for the market to follow what the public expects. The buying and selling orders and the flow of large funds are still full of uncertainties. My current position is in a state of advance and retreat, waiting for more signals to appear.
aunt: I don’t see any big negative news. Judging from on-chain indicators and profit margins, there may be a partial correction before the halving, because the extent of the correction is hard to say due to the existence of ETFs.
Kevin: I think that in the next period, the consensus of the Ethereum ecosystem will be the strongest, and there are two positive aspects. The first is the Cancun upgrade, and the second is the Ethereum ETF news. Including some Layer 2 leaders, the growth rates are very high.
Mindao: Comparing the past two or three cycles, last year in the second half of 2023, the market’s bull market seemed to arrive earlier than I expected. I have always believed that this bull market should not arrive until the second half of 2024. However, this early bull market also brought some positive and negative factors.
First, on the negative side, some potential risks appear to have been mitigated following negotiations between Binance and the sixth U.S. administration. This allows the entire market to avoid some potential negative effects and gives people some peace of mind.
On the positive side, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems have shown incredible dynamism over the past period. The ecosystems of Bitcoin and Ethereum are rapidly evolving, bringing new assets and gameplay, and even redefining the cryptocurrency landscape. Starting from the Bitcoin ecology, the market trend continues to develop upwards, and it seems that there is not much bad news for the market to reverse.
My outlook for 2024 is relatively optimistic and I believe the bull market trend will continue into 2025. Mainly based on the superposition of three monetary policies. The first is Ethereum’s recovery upgrade, which is a massive expansion. Next is Bitcoin’s halving. Finally, traditional finance may feel the impact of digital currencies’ monetary policies on prices. In addition, the results of the U.S. election may also have an impact on technology investment policies, especially if the Republican Party is established, which may have a more positive impact on the market.
Kiwi: In the short term, market trends are difficult to predict and may be affected by some uncertain factors. But in the long term, I am very optimistic about the prospects of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I think the impact of the Bitcoin halving on the market will be minimal. I gradually realized that the Bitcoin halving is not only a change in output, but also the impact of psychological expectations.
At the same time, I am also optimistic about the future of Ethereum. Ethereum is doing some difficult but right things, such as introducing facilities for more users and conducting some complex experiments. Despite some political controversy, these moves position Ethereum to attract more users in the long term. Based on these considerations, I believe that the ecology and innovation of Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to make great progress in 2024 and 2025.
Jason: Regarding the current market changes, I think most people did not expect it, especially Ethereums relatively strong performance, while Bitcoin did not rise as quickly as expected. In the short term, it is difficult to accurately judge the market trend because various factors may affect the market.
However, I personally remain optimistic about Bitcoin and Ethereum in the long term. I think that although the Bitcoin halving will have a minimal impact on output, the impact of psychological expectations and the development of the second layer and various applications will
Regarding the current market conditions, I personally would be more inclined to focus on some projects that have the potential to change real society, although this may involve some risks. In addition, I will focus on some assets with strong chassis technology and stability. But I think the current development of Ethereum may fall into an infinite loop, although we have adopted some solutions to solve previous problems. I think some new innovations may bring Ethereum back into the competition, but in the current situation, Ethereum is already tightly tied up by big capital.
unicorn: Looking at the current market situation, I have the following three views:
1. Consideration of the chip dimension: Emphasis is placed on observing the chip trends of project parties and large institutions. For example, if the founder keeps selling chips, it may affect the long-term performance of the project. For unowned tokens, no one is responsible for maintenance, which may lead to project failure.
2. The relationship between market fluctuations and leverage: Various factors in the market and the leverage of contracts may lead to short-term market fluctuations. Especially when the market is optimistic, short-term adjustment is an inevitable phenomenon of the market. The market adjustment is to digest the increase in leverage and other factors to maintain the healthy operation of the market.
3. Project quality and long-term trends: I think that in terms of long-term trends, everyone has a consistent view on the quality and development direction of the project. But confidence in long-term trends needs to be balanced with vigilance against short-term fluctuations.
