I stayed at the 2024 Hong Kong WEB3 Carnival for almost a week. It was packed with all kinds of meetings and meetings. I was envious of those talented people who can attend seven or eight games a day. I basically entered a state of face blindness after three or four games. Now on the plane Still a little dizzy.
Airplane mode is the best time to sort out your thoughts. This time W Labs teamed up with COMBO to hold a special Game House event for chain games. I originally thought that I could talk longer in my own venue, but I didn’t expect that I was shaking my head on stage. As soon as the ground started to rise, the little host kept pointing to his watch to indicate that it had been 5 minutes, eh? I havent even finished my warm-up yet, and its just over? Hahaha, fortunately, I still have the Buff skill of text output, so I wrote down my introductory and unfinished thoughts for the reference of my friends.
The first question: Has the WEB3 game track been falsified?
This time, in addition to the activities organized by Guatian, I also participated in several panels with my friends. Everyone is still confused about whether the future of the chain travel circuit has prospects, because as of this bull market, there is still no one. The phenomenon is similar to the chain games of Axie and StepN in the last bull market.
But my point of view remains unchanged: If you are optimistic about WEB3, then be sure to be bullish on WEB3 games. History has proven that games are the entry-level cornerstone for an emerging industry to enter the application layer (C-side).
For example, the development of the computer industry relies on the upgrading of chips. In the past 50 years, one of the most important driving factors for computer chips has been the gaming industry. 50 years ago, the popularity of Atari game consoles and the popularity of Pac-Man games around the world directly led to the emergence of the chip industry. At that time, Steve Jobs was working at Atari for the only time in his life.
Another example is NVIDIA in the past few years. Under the tide of AI, it has become the most outstanding high-tech handsome boy in the world. However, NVIDIA was the first to make game graphics cards and GPUs. It was the money in the pockets of hard-core gamers around the world that contributed to NVIDIAs earliest cash flow.
Games are props for the general public to seek happiness and excitement. Those who get the C-side must first get the game.
Second question: So why haven’t WEB3 games been developed yet?
The answer is simple: too early + off track.
If you don’t take into account Crypto Kitty, which came out in 2017, the real cluster effect of chain games started with Axie, which became popular in early 2021. It has only been developed for a few years, which is too short. Let’s first look at the transformation and iteration process of the first two stages of video games.
The first transformation: 25 years ago, the company transitioned from selling hardware such as Atari and Japanese Famicom to selling software because personal computers became popular. PC games began to flourish. From paying for game software to paying for point cards or time for online games on the computer side, those who switched to distribution, such as Steam, made huge profits.
The second transformation: 15 years ago, mobile phones and Pads began to become popular, and heavy computers were no longer needed. Everyone started to play free games and pay to play. If we continue to use the one-time purchase model of client games, we will fall behind again. Game-as-a-Service (GaaS) has transformed into the mainstream business model for mobile games.
The second transformation actually brought great changes to the development model of the entire industry: such as personnel costs. After the client game was launched and the software was sold, layoffs began slowly. Mobile games need to be continuously developed, and personnel costs need to continue to increase. At the same time, customer service personnel need to continue to be added to continue to stimulate players to continue paying. Another example is the emergence of more casual games and 5-minute games, because everyone holds a mobile phone and has fragmented time. Playing and playing or a 5-minute game is very suitable.
So what might be the third transformation in the future? Some companies are betting on the metaverse, and Facebook has even changed its name to Meta. The Metaverse is very good. Everyone has watched Ready Player One and is excited about it, but it requires a lot of money, and the infrastructure must continue to improve. For example, many players will feel dizzy when wearing ordinary VR. Now I heard that Apple VR can solve this problem. this problem.
In my opinion, WEB3 games, which are still in their early stages, may also be a direction. Have you ever thought about what is the biggest difference between WEB3 games and WEB2 games in terms of ultimate goals? If game playability, entry barriers, project operations and talent reserves are all raised to the same level, what differences will remain? By the way, it’s circulation and payment!
WEB3 games must be integrated into the biggest feature of WEB3, which is that the convenience of payment and transactions can be improved. That is, regardless of the payment within the game or the payment outside the game, it can be operated smoothly without having to involve strict restrictions on various countries and regions on various distribution platforms. Meta must have thought of this, but his stablecoin Libra was stillborn very quickly. It may have touched too many external interests. Libra died, but the Libra team wanted to get rich quickly, so they had it. Sui and Aptos.
As mentioned before, the current WEB3 games are going astray because the first popular chain game Axie gave everyone a Play to Earn paradigm, so everyone thought that chain games could only play to Earn, so basically all projects were copying it. Axies model, because after all, Axie makes a lot of money. Sometimes I have been wondering if the first popular chain game was a casual chess and card battle game, a project that was more focused on circulation and payment, would the current situation of the WEB3 game track be healthier?
But it is better to go astray than not to go at all. The beginning of a big trend is naked Earn. It is normal. For example, the beginning of the Age of Discovery can attract navigators to take risks and become pirate kings. It is not because everyone still insists on getting rich through trade (finding India (to smuggle spices and silk with China), but happened to discover large silver mines and hugely profitable human trafficking in South America. They needed to have the first wave of profits that could attract enough attention to be there.
In the future, greater wealth creation effects will lead more teams to evolve in the direction of circulation and payment, so I firmly believe that the real bull market for WEB3 games has not yet arrived. The current sluggish situation is a good opportunity for start-up teams that are still preparing to enter the market. When competitors are already expanding their territory and conquering cities, it will be really late to enter.
The third question: How can circulation and payment be embedded in WEB3 games?
The answer to this question is big. We don’t have the ability to discuss legal and regulatory matters. The bosses who need to control top-level resources have shown their talents in different countries and regions.
Lets analyze it from the economic model alone. If we can build an economic model for a WEB3 game, let alone the effect, it can basically reach the level of a graduate student in the Department of Economics. Circulation and payment itself involve the operation of the entire economic system. Just like how a real economy designs its fiscal system and financial system, it is necessary to first consider the basic level of the economy, its future industrial development direction, and the culture of its citizens. And understand water products, international relations, and then determine the tax and monetary system, and then see how to regulate hard expenditures such as national defense, infrastructure, bureaucracy, education and medical care.
The economic model design of WEB3 games is different from that of WEB2 games. Many parameters in WEB2 games are very error-tolerant because they are difficult to realize and circulate. WEB3 games are different. They involve coin-based or gold-based tokens that can be quickly cashed out. The imbalance in the design of various parameters can easily lead to collapse. Just imagine how difficult it is for so many economists and financial experts to design a complete economic model for a country, let alone us?
But being a keyboard hero is still very tempting. In the early years, why were there so many well-educated Vs on Tianya and Zhihu who were willing to give advice? Because being able to put your thoughts into practice, even on paper, is a very satisfying process. Currently, WEB3 games allow you to build such a system. Hero, you don’t need to fantasize about traveling through time, just come and do it.
Of course, 100 economists have 101 economic theories. Even within W labs, there are different understandings of the design of game economic models. I can only talk about my views in general.
First, compared to my friends from the halal sect who insist on decentralization, I prefer that projects need to be controlled by visible hands from the beginning. Western liberal economic theory originated from Adam Smiths The Wealth of Nations, which revealed the wonderful role of free market economy in human nature and self-repair. Subsequent scholar Ricardo pointed out that under free trade, socialized division of labor and exchange can create higher value.
But even Hamilton, one of the founding fathers of the United States, did not adopt the ideas in The Wealth of Nations when he served as the first Secretary of the Treasury of the United States. Instead, he used the German Listers theory, that is, an economy needs strong trade at the beginning. For protection, strong tariff barriers are needed to protect the countrys fragile industrial development, and it will not be released until it matures to compete with other countries products. Don’t look at the fact that developed countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom are clamoring for free trade every day. When they first started, they protected their own industries more fiercely than anyone else. Slater, the father of the American textile machine, brought textile technology from the United Kingdom to the United States. Still known as a traitor to Britain.
The same applies to the WEB3 game model. You cannot allow the circulation of various tokens too freely at the beginning. A group of hungry wolves like Soros are watching. Whether it is centralized regulation or guidance by internal mechanisms, it must first mature in the system.
Second, when the domestic industry gradually matures, whether to adopt the deep state intervention in the economic cycle as in the rise of Germany, Japan, and South Korea in modern history, or the small government and big market mechanism of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, depends on the trading teams own Style, both systems have successful cases. The first one rises quickly and can bear fruit in a short period of time, while the second one has long staying power and has a healthy financial model. The two models can actually be transformed at different stages of development. For example, the United States’ Roosevelt New Deal after World War II adopted the first model, which was actually a replica of the Soviet Union’s Five-Year Plan, but the effect was very significant. of.
As far as the economic model of WEB3 is concerned, the first model takes asset appreciation as the main line, which can drive the economys GDP (FDV) up in a short period of time, and at the same time attract more and more people to join; the second model is By setting a good tax collection mechanism in the circulation link, the main income of the economy relies on taxation, similar to the casino business model. The more perfect strategy is first one and then two, but it is easier said than done. Being able to do one is already a good thing among people. You also have to control your greed and force yourself to give up the wealth you may have earned in a short period of time. It is estimated that most of the friends in the team will not agree to make adjustments for the illusory future.
This actually answers the title question of this article. The popular chain games in this bull market should at least achieve unprecedented innovation in some aspects. Otherwise, users who are tired of various Earn will not pay the bill, or maybe An innovation point has already appeared in a certain project, and we are just waiting for a tipping point.
Third, if a project is lucky enough to enter the second stage, then it will be a competition to see who is better in terms of circulation and payment methods. In the past few decades, changes in user consumption patterns have proven that whoever can improve the convenience of circulation and payment can lead changes in the industry: swiping a credit card can promote consumption more than withdrawing cash from the wallet, and using Paypal or Alipay can better promote consumption than swiping a credit card. It can also promote consumption. It is difficult to change the inertia of users habits once they have been formed. For example, for users who are already accustomed to Alipay and WeChat payment, it is already difficult for them to return to the era of cash or credit cards. In the future, if WEB3 can lower the threshold of user consumption behavior than WEB2, then WEB3 games will definitely be able to make a breakthrough.
How can WEB3 games continue to develop steadily in the second stage? The current economically developed systems in the world generally achieve three things: a limited free market economy, a consensus-based social operating system, and forward iteration of science and technology. Corresponding to WEB3 games, there are actually three points: eliminating obstacles to circulation and payment, decentralized contract mechanisms to allow players to establish consensus, and synchronizing the development of new technologies in the game industry (such as AI and VR).
Summary: There will be new popular WEB3 games, please wait patiently.
This article ends.
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