*The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Market summary:
Last week, BTC continued its rebound trend, with a minimum of $66,060 and a maximum of $71,979, close to the historical high of $73,777 in March. The final increase was 3.37% and the amplitude was 8.93%.
The rebound in the past seven days mainly came from the limited approval of the ETH spot ETF by the US SEC. Although the final approval and listing will take 1-2 months, combined with the FIT 21 Act (clear regulatory policy) voted by the US Congress and Trumps recent frequent gestures to the cryptocurrency industry, the US macro climate has suddenly become sunny.
The US stock market is also fluctuating at a high level similar to BTC. The Dow Jones fell sharply but failed to rebound, while the Nasdaq rebounded strongly (Nvidias financial report exceeded expectations). BTC currently maintains a relatively weak state. With the expected landing of the ETH ETF, there are signs that the industry capital in the market is shifting from BTC to ETH. The ETH/BTC trading pair rebounded by 20%, and the trading volume increased by 4 times.
In terms of interest rate cuts, the Feds doves and hawks have taken turns, and each time they have triggered a reaction in BTC. Before the interest rate cut is clear, this will be the underlying tone of the BTC market, and this period may continue for 2 months, which is close to the 17-week shock and adjustment period that began in June last year.
Supply and demand structure:
This round of bull market has obvious similar characteristics in terms of trajectory, and is closer to the trajectory of 2017: slowly rising, with several high-level stops and consolidations along the way. This forms sufficient turnover and provides strong support for subsequent rises.
Last week, we pointed out that through on-chain data, the $60,000-73,000 range has become the largest BTC chip accumulation range, with a total of about 3 million pieces. At the same time, $66,000 has also become the single largest chip accumulation area in all price ranges, reaching 546,000 pieces. At present, this may have formed a support range for a new round of market conditions.
U.S. ETFs have recorded net inflows for two weeks since March, reaching $1.055 billion after $946 million of net inflows last week.
The inflow of USD stablecoins can be regarded as a core indicator of long-term market liquidity. After an inflow of $823 million last week, stablecoins had a slight outflow of $30 million last week. Further observation shows that the net outflow mainly came from the outflow of $693 million from the US compliant stablecoin USDC, which was related to its continued decline in market share for two years; while the market-oriented stablecoin USDT had a net inflow of $606 million.
As of May 26, the number of coins held by centralized exchanges was 2.329 million, an increase of 12,000 from last week. This shows that with the rebound in market prices, the short-term BTC supply has increased slightly, but the amount is not large.
Similarly, as the price rebounded for two weeks, the on-chain profit of short-term investors who held BTC for less than 5 months increased from losses to 12%, which is a relatively moderate profit in the bull market cycle. From the perspective of the past two years, there is not too much concentrated profit-taking pressure.
Our statistics show that BTC is significantly uncorrelated with 18 major asset classes in the world, including US stocks, oil, gold, etc., but strongly negatively correlated with the US dollar. Therefore, before the expectation of US interest rate cuts reaches its strongest point, the overall market is still in a dynamic balance of the overall upward trend. However, we have also seen the approval of the ETH ETF, and the competition for US cryptocurrency investors is happening one after another due to the early warm-up of the US election.
We should keep going back to the original intention of BTC’s creation, which is also its underlying value: to fight against the over-issuance of central currencies. With the dollar and the U.S. debt system expanding, the short wait is worth it.
EMC BTC Cycle indicator:
Due to the recovery of market price indicators and long and short hand indicators, the EMC BTC Cycle engine shows that our bull market acceleration period has risen from a low of 0.37 to 0.63.
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