Yesterday (3 JUN), the US manufacturing PMI recorded 48.7, lower than expected and the previous value. At the same time, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model lowered the US second quarter GDP growth rate from 2.7% to 1.8%, which together revealed the recent weakening of US economic data. US bond yields continued to fall, with the 10-year yield falling for the fifth consecutive day, now at 4.382%, and the two-year yield, which is sensitive to interest rate policy, barely maintained above 4.8%. Looking ahead to this week, the next most important data is the non-agricultural data on Friday. In addition, the CPI and FOMC meeting on Wednesday night next week will also be the focus of market attention.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
In terms of digital currency, BTC continued to rise after breaking through the 68,500 resistance level yesterday, breaking through the 70,000 US dollar mark at one point, but quickly pulled back from the high point and continued to fluctuate in the following three hours. During this period, a technical failure occurred on the New York Stock Exchange, and many stocks fell by more than 99%.
Source: TradingView
In terms of options, ETH Vol Surface fell sharply across the board yesterday. On the one hand, ETH has not performed very well compared to BTC in recent days, and its price has slowly fallen below US$3,800. In addition, the selling pressure of call options on the front end of options also forced IV and RR to fall. The markets demand for buying long positions is still mainly after the end of June. We expect Ethereum spot ETF to bring new demand.
Source: Deribit (as of 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus, ETH IV Down
Source: SignalPlus, ETH RR falls
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions
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