Weekly Editors Picks (1102-1108)

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郝方舟
2 weeks ago
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High-quality in-depth analysis articles and a weekly cram session on hot topics.

Weekly Editors Picks is a functional column of Odaily Planet Daily. In addition to covering a large amount of real-time information every week, Planet Daily also publishes a lot of high-quality in-depth analysis content, but they may be hidden in the information flow and hot news, and pass you by.

Therefore, every Saturday, our editorial department will select some high-quality articles that are worth spending time reading and collecting from the content published in the past 7 days, and bring new inspiration to you in the crypto world from the perspectives of data analysis, industry judgment, and opinion output.

Now, come and read with us:

Weekly Editors Picks (1102-1108)

invest

A brief analysis of the dilemma of crypto venture capital: $49 billion invested in projects since 2015, but the returns are not as good as Bitcoin

Looking at the long-term trend, the entire industry is in a loss-making state. From 2015 to 2022, the $49 billion invested in token projects created less than $40 billion in value, with a return rate of -19% (before deducting fees and expenses).

Obviously, not all crypto venture capital flows into token projects. Assume that venture investors collectively hold 15% of the FDV of these tokens. Based on the current market value, the venture capital industry theoretically holds $66 billion worth of tokens. If we exclude SOL, a major special project, this value is $51 billion. Therefore, the entire industrys investment (before deducting fees and expenses) before 2022 has increased by 34% as a whole, including SOL. If SOL is excluded, it is basically flat. These data are based on the assumption that the FDV of the locked tokens can be sold at the current price.

When comparing venture capital to liquid assets, the vast majority of funds have underperformed Bitcoin, especially since the trough. Crypto adoption is now similar to the Mag 7 of the early 2010s (and possibly earlier), so there is still a lot of market to be tapped. There is currently 20x more money in crypto venture than in established institutional liquid crypto funds (over $88 billion vs. ~$4 billion). So if things go as I expect, liquid crypto AUM will exceed crypto venture capital AUM.

What is the main theme of this round of crypto bull market?

PayFi connects the real world; AI Agent enhances the on-chain world; Meme = on-chain casino.

Dialogue with trader Mason: After looking at nearly a hundred cryptocurrency funds in the industry, I found that the characteristics of a good trader are...

When selecting funds and GPs, Mason focuses on three core factors: performance (must be supported by reliable data), team (integrity, hands-on approach, global perspective and continuous evolution) and strategy (needs to meet current market demands and industry development trends).

The industry is constantly changing, and the participants at each stage are different, so there is no fixed investment strategy. There are three types of strategies that are better in this cycle: currency-based enhancement strategies (TVL games, quantitative), buying BTC at a discount or mining, and strategies that outperform BTC in stages, such as CTA.

Dialogue with trader Sean: Money will stay away from those who work hard

Sean has a complete set of Meme trading processes: mainly relying on the smart address system and the Alpha community. The basic process is: understand the project background, observe the chip structure, formulate a trading plan, set stop loss and trading pattern, take profit in batches (upward pin, event Price in, expected valuation according to your own trading plan), set up a large-screen Dashboard, and track hot coins in real time.

Entrepreneurship

The Web3 industry is entering a new era of compliance. Are we pursuing the wrong Mass Adoption?

Weekly Editors Picks (1102-1108)

The industry’s truly healthy and sustainable path to Mass Adoption is to solve practical problems, lower the threshold for use, and create sustainable value.

Devcon is coming. How can project founders build social influence?

Focus on one platform; schedule dedicated time for creation; leverage prompts and daily themes; seek support from your team; and empower your employees.

Monad founder to his peers: You shouldn’t give away advisor shares easily

Entrepreneurs can actually get a lot of advice for free; try to solve problems on your own; dont overestimate the value of a consultants endorsement; know that a consultants input is very limited compared to a full-time employee; control expectations and dont be too optimistic; the people most likely to provide you with valuable advice often wont become your consultants; its difficult for consultants to help solve core problems.

Data interpretation: Is OP Super Chain a good business to make money?

Judging from the data dimension, the current development status of OP SuperChain is still in its early stages overall; only the Base chain has come out, and other chains are still in their infancy.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide

Must-attend this week: Citrea testnet, OpenSea 2.0 pre-registration, Babylon and Morph new Galxe tasks

Web3 version of MapleStory MapleStory Universe Second Pioneer Test Guide

Meme

Meme craze, a new battlefield for VCs, an opportunity or a trap?

The average daily turnover rate of Meme is about 11%, compared with 5% for DeFi, 7% for Layer 2, and 4% for Layer 1. This ratio not only highlights the high liquidity of Meme, but also shows that users are interested in Meme and have a high transaction frequency.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, Memes market value in the entire crypto market has increased from 0.87% two years ago to 2.58% today, and is still on the rise.

Meme is a leveraged Layer 1, which means that when the market conditions improve, Layer 1 will increase by about 5 to 10 times.

Animal memes and cult culture memes are suitable for long-term attention. In contrast, other types of memes are often related to short-term hot spots, and their attention and popularity may rise quickly and then fall back.

Weekly Editors Picks (1102-1108)

Some Meme data indicators

Weekly Editors Picks (1102-1108)

Meme Lifecycle Reference Table

Interpreting the Binance Meme Report: Macro Factors and Value Propositions Behind the Rise of Memes

Big picture: Global money supply expansion and investment behavior.

Micro-environment: Retail investors seek new ways to grow their wealth.

Trend: Financialization of Internet culture.

Risk considerations: A life-or-death struggle, but control remains unabated; the market is saturated, and innovation is stagnant.

Lesson: Take the best of both worlds (key features like fair launch and low-volume token economics).

Outlook: Tokenized software business vs. tokenized concept.

Revealing the MEME coin holdings of the five major crypto market makers: Wintermute holdings have a high probability of MEME being listed on Binance

Wintermute, GSR Markets, Auros Global, B2C 2 Group and Cumberland DRW hold a total of more than $120 million worth of MEME coins. Among them, Wintermute is the institution with the largest holdings and the most popular projects, and many of its MEME coins have been successfully listed on Binance.

Diamond hands, high profit-loss ratio? What are the winning factors in Solana Meme trading?

The most obvious feature that distinguishes the top addresses from other addresses is that the holding period is much longer than that of regular addresses, showing a clear positive correlation, about 6-8 days, which is similar to the fermentation period of top tokens on Solana. Another factor with an obvious positive correlation is the stop loss rate. As profits increase, the stop loss is also relaxed, but the difference between each interval is not obvious.

Surprisingly, the profit rate has no direct relationship with the profitability of the address, which means that the overall profitability of the address is related to the “win rate”, that is, accurate prediction and long-term holding are the root causes of the profitability differentiation of the address.

Diamond Hand is the core and key to achieving top-level profits. However, for readers with limited funds, it may be difficult to imitate such strategies.

Meme Training Manual: Rebirth: I Want to Be a Diamond Hand (Part 4) | Produced by Nanzhi

Weekly Editors Picks (1102-1108)

The in-depth evaluation system has undergone a new upgrade.

Meme battlefield under the US election: no surge, most of them suffered a sharp drop

When good news is exhausted, bad news will come. Big funds will be more cautious when the market is more uncertain. The biggest beneficiaries of the US election may be mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Too many new MEMEs have been generated, distracting the market. There is serious homogeneous competition and a lack of real narrative ability.

Bitcoin Ecosystem

Bitcoin Market Report: Key Trends, Insights and Bullish Price Predictions

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Bitcoin exchange balances are at historic lows, indicating that holders are increasingly confident and are increasingly choosing self-custody.

Bitcoin ETF surges: ETF inflows exceeded $5.4 billion in October, with BlackRocks IBIT leading the market. This reflects the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in mainstream financial markets.

Mining dynamics: Russia and China are expanding their mining influence, while the United States still maintains the largest share of computing power.

Ethereum

From a long-term perspective, the importance of EigenLayer to the future development of Ethereum

Eigenlayer has built a programmable security market that allows Ethereums core security resources to be allocated on demand, thereby enhancing the market position of Ethereums security settlement layer under the new trend of chain unification ideas such as modularization and chain abstraction. To some extent, Eigenlayer has strengthened Ethereums external investment promotion and influence system.

Ethereums deflation logic no longer works, and it can only continue to follow the logic of stacking leverage.

Eigenlayer is critical to Ethereums Rollup-Centric strategys ability to maintain the consensus principle of technology first.

DeFi

Opportunities and challenges under Uniswap innovation: Where is the future of DEX?

The three main directions that Uniswap has been promoting recently are Uniswap X, Uniswap V4 and Unichain.

With the development of DEX RFQ networks such as Uniswap X and Arrakis, and modular DEX architectures such as Uniswap V4 and Valantis, the DEX landscape will enter a new stage. First, many problems in the business links of AMM itself will be solved, and the business scope will be greatly expanded. Secondly, under the current intentional landscape, there are still many RFQ-related issues that need to be solved. Finally, AMM will focus on the long-tail market in the future, optimizing the landscape where PMM gradually dominates.

Revisiting Ethena: After a 80% plunge and rebound, is ENA still in the undervalued strike zone?

Ethenas business positioning is a synthetic dollar project with native income, that is, its track belongs to the same track as MakerDAO (now SKY), Frax, crvUSD (Curves stablecoin), and GHO (Aaves stablecoin) - stablecoin. The business model of stablecoin projects is basically similar: raise funds, issue debt (stablecoins), expand the balance sheet of the project; use the raised funds for financial operations and obtain financial benefits. When the income obtained from the projects operating funds is higher than the combined cost of raising funds and running the project, the project is profitable.

In the past two months, ENA has achieved a rebound of nearly 100% from its low point, and this was when ENA opened the rewards for Season 2 in early October. These two months are also two months of intensive Ethena news and positive news. Ethena has stories worth looking forward to in the next few months to a year: with the expected warming of Trumps coming to power and the Republican victory (the results will be seen in a few days), the warming of the crypto market will benefit the perpetual arbitrage yield and scale of BTC and ETH, and increase Ethenas protocol income; more projects will appear in the Ethena ecosystem after Ethereal, increasing ENAs airdrop income; Ethenas self-operated public chain will also bring attention and nominal scenarios such as staking to ENA, but the author expects this to be launched after more projects have accumulated in the second line.

However, the most important thing for Ethena is that USDE can be accepted as a collateral and trading asset by more leading CEXs.

As a stablecoin product with an obvious Lindy effect (the longer it exists, the stronger its vitality), Ethena and its USDE still need more time to verify the stability of its product architecture and its ability to survive after the subsidy reduction.

Hot Topics of the Week

In the past week, Trump won the election as the new president of the United States (election-related topics ); Bitcoin hit a new record high of $76,400; crypto-related stocks soared ; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points , and no one voted against it; Elon Musks net worth increased by $20.9 billion in a single day, firmly occupying the throne of the worlds richest man;

In addition, in terms of policies and macro markets, the US media: The 2024 US election has cost $14.7 billion , which may be the most expensive in history; Elon Musk: A thorough reform of the US government is coming; US Senator Warren defeated John Deaton, a supporter of the crypto industry, and won a seat in the Massachusetts Senate ; the Trump team considered nominating Robinhood Chief Legal Officer Dan Gallagher as SEC Chairman ; the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced plans to promote the tokenization of financial services; Russia introduced a regulatory framework for crypto mining , defining it as a legal activity and stipulating requirements for miners to operate;

In terms of opinions and opinions, Cathie Wood talked about the US election and Trumps economic policies: the market likes tax cuts ; analysts: US inflation may rise rapidly after Trump takes office, and the Federal Reserve will change its interest rate cut plan ; Arthur Hayes: Solana will be a high-beta Bitcoin during the US election; CryptoQuant CEO: In the current cycle, stablecoins are mainly used for non-trading purposes, and their supply growth is not enough to boost BTC; Matrixport Investment Research: The new SEC Chairman and the US Strategic Reserve may push BTC to break through $100,000 ; Murad: The road to the Meme coin super cycle is now paved; Andre Cronje: Coinbase has repeatedly asked for listing fees and is willing to publish all evidence for public identification; Jupiter founder : Never sold a JUP, and major news is about to be announced; Sothebys Vice President : BAN tokens were deployed by me, never earned $1 million, and destroyed 3.7% of tokens;

In terms of institutions, large companies and top projects, the Ethereum Foundation released a 2024 report : financial reserves of US$970 million; two Ethereum researchers resigned from EigenLayer advisory positions due to conflicts of interest to focus on Ethereum; on November 8, SOLs market value once again surpassed BNB to become the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market value; Telegram will launch 10 new mini-program features , including sending gifts, advertising monetization, etc.; MakerDAO decided to retain the reshaped Sky brand and planned to launch new stablecoins and expansion projects; OpenSea CEO talked about the new version: We built a new platform from scratch; Lumoz airdropped 15 million esMOZ to ZKFair users;

In terms of security, the founder of Truth Terminal said: There is a problem with the registered domain name , please do not access it; ZachXBT: The crypto gambling platform Metawin was suspected of being attacked and lost more than 4 million US dollars... Well, its another week to witness history.

Attached is a portal to the “Weekly Editor’s Picks” series.

See you next time~

Original article, author:郝方舟。Reprint/Content Collaboration/For Reporting, Please Contact report@odaily.email;Illegal reprinting must be punished by law.

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