Weekly Editors Picks (0201-0207)

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郝方舟
half a month ago
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High-quality in-depth analysis articles and a weekly cram session on hot topics.

Weekly Editors Picks is a functional column of Odaily Planet Daily. In addition to covering a large amount of real-time information every week, Planet Daily also publishes a lot of high-quality in-depth analysis content, but they may be hidden in the information flow and hot news, and pass you by.

Therefore, every Saturday, our editorial department will select some high-quality articles that are worth spending time reading and collecting from the content published in the past 7 days, and bring new inspiration to you in the crypto world from the perspectives of data analysis, industry judgment, and opinion output.

Now, come and read with us:

Weekly Editors Picks (0201-0207)

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Arthur Hayes: A systematic argument for how Bitcoin will fall back to $70,000

Fears of inflation are growing because yields are rising even as the Fed eases monetary policy (cuts rates). Tech stocks are extremely sensitive to interest rates, and when the rate at which future cash flows are discounted rises, the present value of tech stocks falls. And this mathematical relationship rears its ugly head when the dysfunction of the financial system causes yields to break through a critical level.

Massive monetary easing in the US, China and Japan cannot be initiated before a mini financial crisis occurs. If a fiat liquidity crunch is imminent, the price of Bitcoin will crash before the stock market and become a leading indicator of financial stress.

Arthur believes that there will be: 60% probability - Bitcoin will pull back 30%; 40% probability - the bull market will continue and Bitcoin will rise 10%. Therefore, the risk should be reduced at this time - most of the altcoins should be cleared, and when the final large-scale liquidation comes, full warehouse bottom-fishing should be done, and crypto dung in the market should be acquired, and the profits on high-quality altcoins should be doubled or even tripled.

Protecting Gains: Using the Put Ladder Strategy to Tackle Bitcoin Volatility

The article introduces an options trading idea that can make profits in a slightly bearish market environment - as long as Bitcoin remains above $83,000, it can achieve capital preservation or better returns; it also analyzes the transaction structure in detail, explores different profit scenarios, and highlights the main risks that need to be considered.

Altcoin Investment Guide: From “Mine Accident Ruins” to “Golden Mine”

The current altcoin market is very similar to coal stocks around 2015 - capacity is being cleared quickly, market enthusiasm is declining rapidly, bad news and good news can no longer trigger industry fluctuations, and it is also facing the bloodsucking of alternative sectors (DEX) in the eyes of the entire market. However, there is nothing new under the sun, and the first principle of investment is always liquidity and cheapness.

DEX is rewriting the rules of the game for pricing power.

CEX strategies include: picking up cigarette butts, waiting for industry cycles, and liquidity arbitrage; DEX strategies include: early sniping and observing its community consensus.

From VC coins to the Meme craze, the crypto market is tired

Meme narratives are over-exaggerated and saturated, and users’ attention spans are further shortened.

The year 2024 highlights two extremes:

1. Too much power in the hands of venture capitalists: Retail investors are unable to participate in private rounds and can only serve as exit liquidity.

2. Unlimited meme coin acquisition leads to a player-to-player market, making overall market conditions worse.

Both have the same consequences: dissatisfaction among retail investors and the need to find balance and stability.

We leave you with some possible ideas for what the future might look like: a return to practicality, less focus on meme coins, and more focus on practical projects.

Wintermute founder responds to everything: If you treat me as an imaginary enemy, dont blame me for slamming you

Wintermute, like all proprietary trading firms, aims to make money through trading, not charity. Its venture capital arm has been investing in cryptocurrencies since 2020 and has never been net short; cryptocurrency exposure has always accounted for 20% to 30% of net assets.

Wintermutes core businesses are DeFi, CeFi and OTC. We will switch battlefields at any time according to market hotspots. We accept BTC, ETH L2, Meme, and AI. It is nonsense to say that we short the market.

CeFi market making, DeFi arbitrage, OTC trading and other operations remain risk neutral; occasionally, we will actively bet on the market direction, but the positions are small and will not be held for a long time.

Tokens fall due to macroeconomic factors, supply and demand imbalances, and market-making agreement terms.

Also recommended: Arthur Hayes new article: Beyond the national reserve of Bitcoin, the United States has other plans for crypto hegemony , Guide to finding KOL transaction addresses (with a file of hundreds of KOL addresses) , Survey on the current status of technical tools: tool migration is accelerating, and user experience is more important than functionality .

policy

Regulatory Interpretation | US SEC Cryptocurrency Working Group: Towards a Clearer Regulatory Framework

The core tasks and challenges of cryptocurrency regulation include: determination of the securities status of crypto assets, compliance of crypto token issuance and trading, and compliance of crypto lending and staking businesses.

Favorable policies and confusing behaviors go hand in hand. Is Trump the real crypto builder or a bigger sickle?

In the short term, the market will inevitably experience sharp rises and falls to digest various major trends, but long-term value growth and industry sedimentation require not only favorable policies, but a two-way game between the market and politicians.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide

In addition to BearChain, here are some popular public chain ecosystem projects that are about to hold TGE

Weekly Editors Picks (0201-0207)

Meme

Decrypting Moonshot’s coin listing data: 50% of them are destined to go to zero, and one-third of them “peak as soon as they go online”

116 coins were listed in three months, 68 of which were almost zero, and one-third of them “peaked as soon as they were listed”;

40% of the currencies at least doubled after listing, with TRUMP being the only one to attract money;

Projects with a retracement of around 50% are actually considered to have fallen less.

Ethereum

Data review of Ethereums darkest moment: $380 million in contracts liquidated, pledges continue to flow out, and inflation returns

This round of volatile market fluctuations in Ethereum is caused by external factors such as the overall market being affected by macro factors, as well as internal factors such as the continued rise in contract positions, the continued increase in bets, and the continued downturn caused by poor performance of on-chain data. The final result is that both long and short positions have declined significantly. After the plunge on February 3, the price quickly rose to more than $2,900 in the short term. At the same time, funds for US spot ETFs are generally inflowing, which further reflects the divergence between the spot market and the futures market.

Next, perhaps the biggest key to driving the market recovery lies in whether the various activity data of the Ethereum ecosystem can actually grow.

Also recommended: Ether.fi: The best yield opportunity for on-site ETH Holders .

Web3 AI

DeepSeeks Popularity: How AI Makes DeFi Mainstream

The essence of DeFAI is to make AI the autopilot of the on-chain world. The current complexity of DeFi has always been a barrier for ordinary users to enter, and DeFAI is expected to simplify the user experience through AI and attract more mainstream users: they can parse on-chain data in real time, and can also help you complete complex strategies such as cross-chain arbitrage, dynamic staking, and flash loan combinations, and even participate in protocol upgrades through DAO governance. Just like search engines allow ordinary people to surf the Internet without understanding the TCP protocol, DeFAI will enable every novice user to have hedge fund-level asset management capabilities.

As Deepseek R1 lowers the threshold for AI, DeFAI forms a positive cycle: explosion of intelligent entities, improved efficiency, and industry growth.

AI developers in fields such as DeFAI can break through the traditional API call charging model: hosting AI instances, service layer construction, and intelligent agent market.

After the AI tide recedes, how will the leading projects choose to save themselves and break through?

Weekly Editors Picks (0201-0207)

Representatives of flexing muscles and building relationships: arc; representatives of product updates: GRIFFAIN, AVA, BUZZ, etc. integrate DeepSeek, LMT, ZEREBRO, etc. with high-frequency updates and exposure; swarms made a groundbreaking move - requesting token holders to invest/pledge tokens to the DAO.

Today, no one in the leading projects is keen on making big news, but instead turns to further demonstrating their ability to make good products and to develop products for the long term. The main theme in 2025 will still be AI. After the bubble is cleared, the rise may no longer be based on narratives but on products.

After the bubble faded, I chose to buy these AI Agent projects at the bottom

FARTCOIN, ai16z, arc, swarms, ALCH.

Interpreting 25 DeFAI potential projects

As DeFAI is an emerging field, most projects are still in the testing phase. It will take time to verify the actual performance of trading agents.

The automated DeFi execution mechanism is a highlight, which successfully simplifies the complex operation process and improves the user experience.

It is difficult to establish competitive barriers in the DeFAI space because many projects have similar functions and positioning. The token value acquisition mechanism of most projects is not outstanding, and some even lack practicality completely. In addition, some terminals show long delays in responding to queries, which may be due to performance limitations of the underlying chain or insufficient proxy optimization.

Also recommended: DeFAI keeps falling, is there still a chance?

Hot Topics of the Week

In the past week, on February 3, the market plummeted ; a new US bill would make downloading DeepSeek a crime , with a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison and a fine of $1 million;

In addition, in terms of policy and macro market, US Senator Hagerty proposed the GENIUS stablecoin bill ; 15 US states are promoting Bitcoin strategic reserves , with Arizona and Utah temporarily in the lead; David Sacks: Crypto regulatory regulations are expected to be completed within the next six months ; the US SEC requires its staff to obtain high-level approval before launching an investigation after a leadership change ; Trump signed an executive order to establish a sovereign wealth fund ; Musk: The US governments Department of Efficiency will suspend payments to contractors from the Treasury Department ; the US Treasury Department clarified: The Department of Government Efficiency only has read-only access to the payment system and has not suspended or refused payments; Trump has instructed Musk to review the US Department of Defenses spending ; El Salvador has revoked Bitcoins legal currency status ( detailed explanation ); Bank of America: The global dominance of US stocks is weakening, and it is recommended to go long on Chinese stocks ;

In terms of opinions and opinions, David Sacks: Will promote regulation to ensure that innovation in the crypto field occurs in the United States ; Bitwise CIO: The four-year cycle of cryptocurrency may have ended, and Washington will lead the crypto wave in the next 10 years ; Michael Saylor: Never sell your Bitcoin ; Matrixport: There is an obvious technical divergence between the price of Bitcoin and RSI, indicating that its momentum has weakened ; Coinbase director: Trump may have made more than $800 million in profit from the TRUMP he launched; MV Global partner: No project in the industry requires more than $10 million in financing ; He Yi: Regarding the questions about Labs and girlfriends , evidence and criticism are welcome; Sun Yuchen: Li Lin concealed the due diligence materials when selling Huobi, and there was a $30 million hole inside ; Li Lin responded: The $30 million funding hole is not true, it is actually a position break caused by extreme market conditions when operating margin trading business ; DeepSeek: No virtual currency has been issued ;

In terms of institutions, large companies and top projects, MicroStrategy changed its name to Strategy ; BlackRock increased its holdings in Strategy to 5%; Trump Media Technology Group submitted trademark registrations such as TRUTH.FI BITCOIN PLUS ETF ; Trump family encryption project WLFI intends to use holdings to establish a strategic reserve; Ethereum Pectra upgrade has finalized the test network execution time, and the main network upgrade time is expected to be determined on March 6; HashKey Capital has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide professional investors with virtual asset full-power account management services ; Berachain announced the token economics : a total of 500 million, and airdrops accounted for 15.8%; Berachain went online for airdrop inquiries; Solayer announced the LAYER token economics : a total of 1 billion, 12% for Genesis Drop; megaETH announced the launch of the NFT series The Fluffle , which caused controversy; PAIN 48 H raised more than 180,000 SOL;

In terms of data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.50% , which may open the door to further decline; Tether CEO: Profits in 2024 will be as high as 13.7 billion U.S. dollars, global users will exceed 400 million, and there will be only 165 employees; On February 1, the total market value of stablecoins exceeded 217.4 billion U.S. dollars, setting a new record , and the market value of USDC has increased by more than 22% in the past 30 days;

In terms of security, the Ionic platform on Mode was attacked . Hackers used fake LBTC as collateral, and Ionic lost $8.6 million. Its predecessor Midas protocol was attacked twice . Jupiter X account was stolen and published suspicious token information. Jupiter Lianchuang responded to the official X account being stolen : an employee lost contact, and the account was accessed by an Android phone in the United States ... Well, it was another week of ups and downs.

Attached is a portal to the “Weekly Editor’s Picks” series.

See you next time~

Original article, author:郝方舟。Reprint/Content Collaboration/For Reporting, Please Contact report@odaily.email;Illegal reprinting must be punished by law.

ODAILY reminds readers to establish correct monetary and investment concepts, rationally view blockchain, and effectively improve risk awareness; We can actively report and report any illegal or criminal clues discovered to relevant departments.

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