Guest Message:
The process that every crypto investor has to go through:
See the mountain as a mountain
The mountain is not a mountain
Mountains are still mountains
At the beginning, when you trade in cryptocurrencies, you will only pay attention to the narrative. After digging out the smart money and the banker’s wallets, you will pay special attention to the banker’s operations. Finally, when you know the rules of the game, you are back to the first day and pay special attention to the narrative, capital hotspots, and the consensus of investors.
You have to figure this process out on your own. Its extremely painful but you will eventually see the light. Come on!
Mr. Mai (@Michael_Liu 93) is a senior investor who has crossed over from traditional finance to Web3. After graduating in 2016, he worked in a Canadian investment bank for two years and was engaged in mergers and acquisitions. After getting in touch with blockchain in 2017-2018, he gradually shifted from the traditional VC perspective to cryptocurrency trading. He is currently running a fund focusing on the secondary market of Bitcoin. He is also a well-known KOL in the Meme coin track. With his deep insight into the market and high-quality content sharing, he has accumulated more than 60,000 Twitter followers in just half a year.
OKX specially invited him as the first guest of the 2025 Friends of OKX series to share his in-depth thoughts on the Meme track and his advice to novices. Through the analysis of the dual perspectives of traditional finance and cryptocurrency, he presented us with a more three-dimensional market picture.
The Friends of OKX series is a special column specially planned by OKX, hosted by OKX official community ambassador Mercy (@Mercy_okx). It aims to explore the career stories, industry insights and lessons learned of KOLs from different backgrounds for novice users to learn and refer to.
The road from traditional finance to Web3
Mercy_okx (@Mercy_okx): Can you share with us your experience in entering the Web3 industry?
Honest Mr. Mai (@Michael_Liu 93): I entered the financial industry after graduating in 2016. I first worked in a Canadian investment bank for two years and then did mergers and acquisitions. My first contact with blockchain was a relatively accidental opportunity. At that time, when I was researching the field of enterprise services, I participated in a conference call with the Credit Suisse investment research team, where they discussed blockchain technology. I actually heard about Bitcoin in college, but I was more skeptical about cryptocurrencies at the time. It was not until 2017-2018 that I came into contact with the application of Ethereum and blockchain in the field of enterprise services that I became interested in this field and began to invest in some early public chain projects. However, at that time, I was still looking at blockchain from the perspective of traditional VC. It was not until 2020-2021 that I officially turned from the traditional field to cryptocurrency. Now I mainly operate a Bitcoin secondary market fund.
Mercy_okx: What is the logic behind the transformation from initially being a VC to focusing on Meme coin trading?
Honest Mr. Mai: I am a person who likes to chase new opportunities. I will go wherever there is a wealth-creating effect. Now the market opportunities are obviously in the secondary market. You can either buy Bitcoin to get Beta returns or participate in the chain. However, I also went through a period of discomfort when I first entered the chain trading. I found that many friends who sent me private messages said that it was difficult to get started with chain trading and they lost money as soon as they entered. In fact, I also lost money for half a year at the beginning, and I was cut by others every day. This is because even if you have stable profitability in the secondary market, you have to be educated by the market again when you come to the chain. So I suggest that everyone should accept this process calmly, because this is a necessary tuition fee.
My previous VC experience is very helpful to me now. In essence, they are all financial markets, and they are all games of human nature. The logic of market making and retail investors selling is very similar.
Meme coin market in-depth insights
Mercy_okx: How did you start building your personal IP? What do you think is the most critical factor in increasing your followers from a few thousand to more than 60,000 in a short period of time?
Honest Mr. Mai: I think I was lucky, and I got on the right track in several waves. First of all, I realized very early that personal IP and voice are very important in the Meme track. Because Meme is essentially a communication game, if you are a super communicator or information center, you can be closer to other information centers. In all financial markets, information gap is always the most valuable.
When I first created the account, I wanted to develop it in the direction of Meme. At first, I mainly shared some of my secondary market experience, such as how secondary market makers operate, including some retail investors chasing Dog and Hamster on TON at the time. I analyzed the market making and harvesting methods behind these projects. These contents resonated with many people, and the account grew from a few hundred followers to a few thousand.
Later, I started to share my experiences on Meme. Then Solana exploded quickly, and I caught this wave of market. Although I caught it late, like Huijie and others who had already played on Solana, I still caught some good opportunities, such as the earliest $ai16z, $ban, and now the AI concept. I think I caught it right. I am personally good at finding where the hot money is, because my trading style is to trade with the hot money.
Mercy_okx: What do you think of the current development trend of the Meme coin market? In particular, what changes has the rise of the AI concept brought?
Honest Mr. Mai: This round of on-chain dividends is unstoppable. It is essentially absorbing the liquidity of the secondary market. Why is the on-chain liquidity sucked away by DEX? Behind this is actually a change in the business model.
Let me use an analogy to explain: the original model is like this - I have an idea to build a car, first find VC financing, and then sell the car to users in the secondary market on the exchange. Retail investors in the secondary market are actually consumers, and they exchange USDT for project tokens. When the market liquidity is good, if the project party produces a Porsche, consumers in the secondary market may still appreciate after buying it. But when the market liquidity is poor, there are a lot of people building cars, and the initial price is very high, people who buy in the secondary market will become trapped consumers rather than investors.
The current model has become: I have an idea, first raise funds from the market, and then build the product step by step. Because retail investors have the opportunity to participate very early, for example, they can invest in the project when it is only in the blueprint stage, and get returns after the product is built. This is actually taking away the cake that VCs used to eat. Just like the original project party had to raise funds in rounds: Angel round, A round, B round, now it has become a direct Fair Launch, whether the product is good or not, whether the market recognizes it, are directly reflected in the price.
The rise of the AI concept has brought about great changes, attracting a large amount of institutional funds to enter the market. The valuations of ai16z and Swarms would not have been achieved without institutional funds. Moreover, AI projects have changed the business model on the chain, and they really have products to showcase. At each stage, different types of investors will enter the market - in the earliest stage, it may be that P Xiaojiang thinks that a market value of 500,000 is worth investing, and later, as the team debuts and the product takes shape, it will attract more institutional investors. This gives each stage a clear buying logic, which is a model that institutional investors like very much.
Mercy_okx: What is unique about the Meme coin market compared to traditional primary and secondary markets?
Honest Mr. Mai: The biggest feature is that it is often easy to return to zero after buying. The gameplay of Meme is very diverse. In the secondary market, it is essentially a single-player game of wits and courage with the dealer. But Meme coin is more like a MORPG, where everyone shows off their skills.
For example, as a young P player, you may watch the market every day to catch opportunities in the internal market. If you are good at analyzing chips, you may catch the early strong market. You can also be a builder. For example, I recently suggested to a friend in the group who is not good at playing AI that he should talk to the Hackathon team to see who is going to issue coins and establish relationships in advance. After they have issued coins and collected chips, they may give you some early opportunities.
The key is to find a way to make money that suits you. Just like in the secondary market, some people play spot trading, some people play contracts, and spot trading is divided into swing trading and holding trading. Everyone needs to find the way that suits them best.
Mercy_okx: What do you think is the most important consideration when evaluating the potential of a Meme Coin project?
Honest Mr. Mai: I think the advent of the AI trend has actually changed the evaluation logic of Meme coins a lot. In the previous Meme era, project owners and market makers were hidden. If you didn’t know the developer or the first-level market maker, it was difficult to judge whether a project was a running water market, a strong market maker market, or a conspiracy market. At that time, you could only analyze some clues from the on-chain address, such as seeing how high a project owner’s previous market could go.
With the AI wave, the evaluation has become closer to the VC methodology. Because most of the teams are well-known, you can do real due diligence - directly contact community members and research team backgrounds, all of which are written in their profiles.
When evaluating a project, I look at three main aspects:
1. Narrative potential: whether the product fits the current market hot spots;
2. Team strength: not only their professional capabilities in the field of AI, but also their operational capabilities in Web3, including control, marketing, and community operations;
3. Market space: For example, if a certain AI framework has achieved a valuation of 2 billion, and if a new team with a strong technical background emerges to work in a similar direction, this is an opportunity for market replication.
This is actually very similar to the logic of traditional VC investment in early-stage projects. Just like Zhen Fund is famous for investing in people, in the early stages of a project, there may be nothing to look at except the founder. But no matter which stage you participate in, the core is to look at people, because how big a project can be depends not only on the product itself, but also on whether the team can create market sentiment, operate the project, and continuously deliver. Especially in the AI track, we need to find a team that understands both the product and the gameplay of Web3, so that such a project is most likely to succeed.
Mercy_okx: There are many sub-tracks for AI-related tokens, including computing power, infrastructure, pure Meme, Agent technology framework, Launchpad platform, etc. When evaluating different types of projects, how do you weigh product logic, narrative, and market sentiment? Are there different evaluation criteria for different categories?
Mr. Mai: Let me use an example of a framework project to illustrate. You can understand this round of so-called framework projects as benchmarking public chains, and there will be various applications on them, such as TradeFi or games. Why is the market so fond of $Virtual and $ai16z? Because they are doing the underlying framework, the market gives them valuations similar to public chains.
In the field of AI applications, we believe that the most valuable direction besides the framework is TradeFi+AI for two reasons:
1. Liquidity entry point: In the cryptocurrency market, the most important thing is to find where the liquidity is. TradeFi is the easiest application track to cut into liquidity. If you can get a commission from the transaction, this product will be very valuable.
2. User interaction frequency: In the field of cryptocurrency, the most common activity performed by users is trading. Therefore, the AI application with the highest interaction frequency is likely to be in the direction of TradeFi+AI.
Practice has also proved this point. For example, the market value of projects such as Stoic and Berg rose rapidly from 2-3 million US dollars to tens of millions in two weeks. This is because the market will copy the logic of success.
In contrast, projects that are purely conceptual, purely storytelling, or purely meme-based, except for a few individual cases, are not highly recognized by the market. This is because the AI track has entered the 4.0 stage, and it is no longer possible to simply raise money by releasing a concept. The market is more concerned with product implementation and viable business models.
As for infrastructure projects like $swarms, they can achieve high valuations because they are similar to public chains and can capture all transaction liquidity within the ecosystem. This is also why the price of $Virtual should be higher than $ai16z, because it not only provides a technical framework, but also cuts into actual liquidity. In the future, $ai16z is likely to develop in the direction of liquidity, because in Web3, the real moat is not only technology, but also the possession of liquidity.
This is different from the AI competition in Web2. The AI in Web2 is more like an arms race, competing for financial strength and hardware reserves, while in Web3, liquidity has become an extremely critical factor.
Mercy_okx: What are the characteristics of the Meme coin ecosystem on different public chains?
Honest Mr. Mai: Both retail investors and project owners have their own characteristics. Let’s talk about Solana first. Its pace is very fast. Retail investors may lose their money after a night’s sleep, and project owners may lose their coins after a night’s sleep. It is very difficult to maintain a market value of 5-10 M on Solana by relying on natural traffic, and it gives project owners very little room for error.
There are a lot of rugs and startups on BSC, but if you meet a good developer and team, there will be more room. However, because of the low natural traffic, you basically have to rely on yourself to pull the market, so the projects that can run on BSC generally have strong financial support behind them.
The characteristic of Base is that the official has close contact with the project parties and provides strong support. For example, Jess (the person in charge of the Base ecosystem) often helps the project parties make calls. In addition, there are many technical teams on Base, and they are making some good products. As a retail investor, the good thing about Base is that there are relatively few projects, so the pressure of selection is relatively small, and you can focus on projects with official endorsements, which will be relatively safe.
Newcomer Admission Guide
Mercy_okx: For newcomers to the market, how do you suggest they allocate funds reasonably and build a sustainable investment system?
Honest Mr. Mai: The first suggestion is not to buy VC coins in the secondary market. If you don’t know how to trade, it is recommended to configure Bitcoin as a coin hoarder, and mainstream coins such as Solana and Ethereum should also be appropriately configured. If you want to speculate on Meme, it is recommended to buy blue-chip Meme coins that have been verified in the secondary market, such as Doge and Pepe.
Regarding capital allocation, I suggest that beginners who want to participate in on-chain transactions only use 10% of their total capital to participate. For example, if you have $100,000, use $10,000 to gamble on the chain, and invest $100 or $200 in each currency to start trying. Dont go all in. The best way is to be an observer first, and then gradually expand the scale of funds when you can generate continuous income in this market.
Before you find a stable profit method, it is recommended not to pursue the income of the internal market. I have seen many friends frantically bottom-fishing in the internal market, but they are often harvested. It is recommended to start observing projects with a market value of 5-10 M, and you can invest 0.05-0.1 ETH each time to try. When you find that you are generally profitable on Meme, then expand your position. This is not a gambling game. If you treat it as a gambling game, you will definitely lose miserably.
Mercy_okx: How to build information acquisition channels?
Honest Mr. Mai: The most important thing is not to pay attention to matrix accounts. Pay attention to the few big KOLs in the industry who will not cheat you. Pay special attention to the first recommendation (call) of the KOL, rather than the subsequent recommendations, because the market changes too quickly and the odds of subsequent calls may be different.
In addition, you should find a group of partners you trust and who have complementary abilities to communicate with. In this market, teamwork is often easier to succeed than going it alone. Everyone may have their own strengths, and complementing each other can go further.
Suggestions and prospects for OKX
Mercy_okx: What is your overall impression of OKX?
Honest Mr. Mai: The OKX team is very cutting-edge and interacts closely with the community. The product team and KOL operations are all very close to the market. They have also done a good job in on-chain tools and wallets, providing free services from the beginning, showing a good strategic vision. They also made rapid changes to the current on-chain market, which is considered to be a long-term vision among all exchanges. I cannot evaluate the response speed to the problem for the time being, because I have not encountered relevant situations. But overall, OKX is very serious in serving users.
This article is for reference only. This article only represents the authors views and does not represent the position of OKX. This article is not intended to provide (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold digital assets; (iii) financial, accounting, legal or tax advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of such information. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involves high risks and may fluctuate significantly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. Please consult your legal/tax/investment professionals for your specific situation. Please be responsible for understanding and complying with local applicable laws and regulations.
