Original title: Zero Knowledge Proof
Original author: Arthur Hayes , Founder of BitMEX
Original translation: 0x js@Golden Finance
As communications technology has improved over the past century, the skills politicians need to engage the public have also changed. To illustrate my point, I want to quickly review the history of the U.S. presidency and look at key advances in communications technology.
radio
The hottest tech stock of the 1920s was RCA, the dominant consumer radio manufacturer of the time. RCAs P/E ratio hit an all-time high of 73 before the crash, and it never recovered. Thats the thing to remember about tech stocks... and its the same this time. Radio came to prominence as a military technology during World War I, and after the war, the United States led the way in commercializing it. By 1940, almost 80% of American homes owned a radio. Wartime President Franklin Roosevelt was famous for his fireside radio talks, speaking to the American public and indoctrinating them with the pro-war propaganda of the time to unite society and sacrifice blood and treasure to fight the Germans and Japanese. To succeed, later politicians had to have a presence on the airwaves.
television
Television became a major consumer product in the United States in the 1960s, with 90% of households owning a television. For the first time, the nation could watch the ruling classs propaganda together. The political watershed moment for television as a powerful political advertising tool was the September 1960 presidential debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
Nixon was the favorite to win because he was the more experienced politician. People were familiar with his voice but not his face. Kennedy, on the other hand, was a mild-mannered, inexperienced young man. However, the televised debates showed the American people a Nixon who looked old and frail and a Kennedy who looked young and energetic. Nixons poor TV performance turned the tide and Kennedy won the election. From then on, a poised TV performance became a necessity for winning high office.
Internet/Social Media
It took a while for politicians to really take advantage of social media, which had its roots in the personal computer and internet revolution. However, by 2016, this political force had emerged. To get an idea of the amount of political TV and radio ads purchased in a presidential election year, let’s look at this statistic: In the 2012 U.S. presidential election, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney spent approximately $2.6 billion on TV and radio ads.
Donald Trumps rise almost began as a joke. He joined the Republican presidential race in 2016. No one thought he could succeed, and Trump wasnt going to spend a ton of money on TV and radio ads and then take a political hit. He was considered a nuisance within the party, and therefore wouldnt receive large donations. However, while Trump lacked a ton of campaign cash to spend lavishly on TV and radio ads, he did understand how new technologies were changing the media landscape.
Pew Media estimated that 68% of adults had a Facebook account in 2016. At the time, it was not common to micro-target groups for political gain based on activity within the social network. The Trump team seized on this gold mine, cheaply targeting likely supporters and delivering political ads to them at a much lower cost than through television or radio. In addition, Trump used Twitter (now called X) to communicate directly with people in real time. It was raw, uncensored, and messy. But it was human, and it made supporters and opponents alike pay attention. Attention is always a commodity in play, and Trump used social media to attract more attention at a much lower cost than any other politician and won the presidency.
podcast
Politicians around the world have seen the success of social media in swaying public opinion and have changed their communication strategies. The full effectiveness of social media in spreading political propaganda has been on full display during the COVID pandemic. Governments around the world have asked big tech social media platforms to spread lies about COVID and vaccines to the world and suppress any opinions that differ from the official narrative. Content that was canceled and removed has instead turned to private podcasts that live and thrive on the internet.
By 2024, many people get their news and form their political opinions by listening to their favorite podcast hosts. Joe Rogan is by far the most successful podcaster in the United States. He recently signed a multi-year contract with Spotify worth $250 million. Rogan influenced public opinion in the recent US presidential election, especially among undecided voters. Trump appeared on the Rogan show, but Harris did not. Trump appeared on numerous podcasts that appealed to his supporters. Harris continued with her tried-and-true TV and radio show, supplemented by well-worn ads on social media platforms. Trump defeated Harris because he once again took advantage of advances in communications technology to connect himself more directly with voters.
What have we learned?
As technology develops, information can be disseminated faster and cheaper to a wider audience, and politicians have a more direct connection with the people they rule. As rulers become more human, they must adapt the way they communicate their policies to the public. Humanization does not always work in the politicians favor, as the public quickly realizes that they are as weak-minded as fools.
TRUMP
Trump is the first politician to officially launch his own memecoin, and arguably one of the three most influential politicians in the world (the leaders of China and Russia are on par or close to him). Trump has ushered in a new era of political memecoins.
I think the Political Meme Coin will do the following:
Provides true real-time global opinion polls on politicians
Increase participation and impact in political campaigns at virtually no cost
Bringing billions of people to Web3
Let’s expand on this a little bit.
General Knowledge Games
Political popularity is a common sense game. Everyone believes that what everyone else believes influences our opinions of politicians more than what we believe ourselves. This leads to information asymmetry because publicly we believe one thing and privately we believe another. As a result, we feed pollsters garbage information about our true opinions. This puts politicians in a difficult position because they want to know our true private opinions in real time. However, if it is socially acceptable to publicly support unpopular politicians, this also allows unpopular politicians to pretend to be popular. In short, both the government and the governed have imperfect information, which leads to policy errors.
Political Memecoin provides zero-knowledge proofs of political popularity. Specifically, as an individual, you can now privately support a politician by purchasing their memecoin, which your friends hate, without facing any social stigma. As a result, politicians can learn the true opinions of the people. Finally, those who just want to follow the crowd can support politicians because the price of their memecoin goes up, giving them the confidence to support the side that everyone knows everyone else knows will win.
This phenomenon is exemplified by the rise of Polymarket, a decentralized exchange that allows betting on political outcomes using cryptocurrency. Polymarket rose to prominence for its 2024 Trump vs. Harris election prediction market, which shows in real time who the global community thinks is more likely to become the next U.S. president. Anyone with an internet connection and cryptocurrency can bet on the outcome, allowing participants from all over the world to speculate.
Polymarket came under attack in the US because their market showed that Democratic candidate and establishment favorite Harris would lose. The Democratic Party tried to deceive the public into believing that Joe Biden was not a lunatic and that Harris was popular. This was not the case and the mainstream media used this ruse until Biden self-destructed in the debate with Trump and Harris lost the election. However, while the establishment media and big tech platforms lied to the public, Polymarket clearly showed that Trump was the favorite to win. The establishment was so angry that the public had a real barometer on the election that the Polymarket CEO was slammed.
In other parts of the world, authorities might preemptively ban Polymarket, lest unfiltered, real public opinion be expressed in real time. France bans Polymarket. Why should France care about political prediction markets in a non-election year? President Macron is deeply unpopular, but he won’t allow new elections until necessary in 2027. If there were a real-time market showing Marine Le Pen as the most likely to win the 2027 French election, that would not be a good thing for him and his political allies. It would likely accelerate the collapse of his globalist order in France. Therefore, Polymarket must go away.
If the goal is a popularity metric that is globally accessible, easy to understand, and impossible to ban, then political memecoins traded on DEXs are the perfect tool.
Three properties of political meme coins
Let’s evaluate political meme coins based on the three properties needed to create a global political meme market:
Globally accessible:
A meme coin is just a unique public address that issues a certain number of tokens, which exist on a public blockchain. The DEX itself is a piece of code that is executed on the public blockchain, where you can trade these tokens. The most popular trading pair is [Memecoin / USDe]. Therefore, anyone with an internet-connected device can trade political memecoins.
Easy to understand:
Do you like this politician and would you like to express your support?
Do you believe that other people like this politician or will like this politician in the future?
You only need to answer these two questions before you decide to buy political memecoin.
People buy TRUMP because they want to be part of the group of Trump supporters or they believe that Trumps popularity will increase in the future.
Thats it. No need to understand any fancy economic or financial theory. You dont need to understand algebra, basic calculus, statistics, or probability. You just need to think and feel like a living human being. Therefore, anyone can understand what gives political memecoin value.
It is not possible to prohibit:
Memecoins are built on a public blockchain, which itself exists because miners or validators run specific software. At a high level, to destroy a public chain, you would need to remove all miners/validators and then shut down the internet.
With the current scale and penetration of public chains, it is impossible to remove all miners/validators. It is like playing whack-a-mole. Once an operator is removed from the network, the profit motive will attract others to join.
Since modern society relies on internet-connected devices, the government cannot shut down the internet and survive as a governing body in its current form.
Therefore, while the government can harshly criticize the negative effects of Memecoin from their perspective and selectively prosecute individuals and companies that offer or participate in Memecoin transactions, they will never be able to eradicate Memecoin on a large scale. Attempting to do so will only make Memecoin transactions more popular.
What Does Political Memecoin Tell Us About Politicians?
Since participants vote with their wallets, memecoin is the purest and most honest indicator of popularity. When people talk to pollsters or friends, they often lie about their true political views for fear of going against the crowd. Memecoin transactions are zero-knowledge proofs of political popularity, and no one knows who owns or trades what unless the traders reveal their identities themselves. Given that real digital currency is at stake, it makes no sense to buy $TRUMP if you hate Trump or think his popularity wont rise. If you thought that, you wouldnt buy it at all, or would short the $TRUMP/USDe perpetual contract. This is why $TRUMPs price action indicates his true global popularity.
Affiliation and greed are two of the most powerful motivators in memecoin trading. Therefore, I believe we can infer a politicians specific situation by looking at their memecoin charts. If the price of a memecoin is rising, it means that people are satisfied with current and expected policies, and if the price is falling, it means they are dissatisfied. As political memecoin trading surges, we will be able to identify changes in popularity directly based on discrete policy outcomes. Bills passed, wars started, speeches given, etc. will immediately affect citizens, which can be observed by looking at the post-event price performance of a specific political memecoin.
Most politicians only want the public to know when others like them, not when others despise them. So why would they launch their own memecoin? I believe that in a so-called democracy, it would become a political necessity for any politician to officially endorse their own memecoin. To understand why, lets discuss how elections are won.
Political Memecoin as a campaign tool
In order to win elections, politicians have to get people out to vote. This is hard to do because voters have so many other things to do. But if the politician has memecoin, and you buy it, its in your best interest to vote so it retains its value. Therefore, memecoins are the best political engagement tool ever. They tie financial gain directly to voting support from every voter, not just large campaign donors.
Whenever a challenger supports a political memecoin in a given race, they have the upper hand. This is because they can offer a direct financial benefit to getting out and voting without having to pay for it. Memecoins are the most effective form of political advertising because they act as viral digital word of mouth. Trump has pulled it off and just enacted campaign finance reform, which I don’t think he even knows about.
To activate their supporters, challengers will participate in online events that cost nothing. Trump won the 2024 election because he was willing to appear on podcasts like Joe Rogan. The next major election cycle will be won or lost in X-spaces or Discord channels. Politicians aim to discuss their political platforms and increase the number of memecoin holders. With the internet and social media, one-to-many conversations are free; building communities is difficult and time-consuming. However, it is much easier to build a community of fervent supporters when everyone benefits financially from political success. This is much more effective than radio, television, or internet advertising.
Many “old school” politicians won’t believe me. In the US at least, the 2026 election will feature a slew of new personal political brands created via memecoin who will defeat the supposedly unbeatable incumbents. What if Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi, and Maxine Waters all lose to upstarts in their own party because of political memecoins?
While we still have to wait a few years for the political memecoin earthquake to shake up the Pax Americana, its effects could soon be felt in Europe. Germany is holding new elections next week. The establishment is doing everything it can to prevent the AfD (Alternative for Germany) from taking power. What would happen if the AfD created a large number of political memecoins for each member of parliament who ran for office? What would happen if they became the largest party in Germany, gaining so much support that it would be impossible to form a government without their participation?
I know time is running out, but it will take less time to create a political memecoin than it will take to be denied entry to the Bundestag.
What happens if Keir Starmer is forced to call new elections after a reorganized UK Conservative Party that doesn’t want young girls being seduced by creepy old men? Could Reform UK take back the UK Parliament by launching a series of political memecoins backed by its future MPs? I don’t know, but memecoins are the most popular way to spread the wisdom of the crowd, and Trump has just opened Pandora’s box.
A campaign finance thought experiment
For any reader who has new ideas and a desire to serve society but has an empty pocket, this article can serve as a blueprint for funding your budding political career.
Let’s make a joke. Imagine that broke Infowars host Alex Jones wants to run for the US Senate seat in New York in 2026 against powerful incumbent Chuck Schumer. Alex obviously has no money and no credibility with big corporate donors. While people may agree with some of his views, no one wants to take a chance on a loser in broad daylight.
Alex decides to raise funds for his campaign by issuing $JONES memecoin. At the time of issuance, only 10% of the supply is in circulation, and 90% is held by Alexs campaign organization and is not locked. Experienced memecoin traders may yell RUG PULL because the campaign holds a large number of unlocked tokens. However, the campaign needs to raise funds by selling tokens.
Anyone who buys $JONES implicitly understands that they are exit liquidity for the campaign. The campaign must raise funds by selling memecoin, so by buying $JONES at a higher price, the buyer is actually donating to Alexs campaign. However, the possibility that Alex wins is that the price of $JONES will soar.
$JONES holders would be incentivized to tell everyone about Alexs political platform and how it would benefit the district. This would bring in more buyers, which would allow the campaign to raise more money by selling memecoin, which would increase Alexs chances of winning, which would increase the price of $JONES, and so on. Additionally, schadenfreude could drive many buyers to buy $JONES to support the establishment, as it would be fun to see Schumer lose to Alex Jones.
This is how Web3-savvy political saboteurs fund campaigns and create viral marketing machines.
Before discussing how Maelstrom will profit from the future of political memecoin, I want to address some of the negative sentiment surrounding this new asset class.
Arguments against political memecoin and their rebuttals
It’s hilarious to listen to crypto people rail against political memecoin. I’ll go through some of the main complaints and why I disagree.
Politicians should not use their power to seek personal gain.
The simplest way to eliminate this concern is to distribute 100% of the tokens at launch. Then if the politician wants to give credence to themselves they enter the market at the same price as everyone else. If their popularity rises they will personally profit but I would rather do that than take bribes and pseudo bribes from wealthy corporations and individuals behind the scenes. If politicians could more transparently make more money just by holding their memecoin then they would be doing the right thing for the people instead of the right thing for the rich because popularity can become very profitable.
$TRUMP looks like a fraud because his family and close associates hold 80% of the supply. However, I dont believe it. The token economics are well known. If you choose to buy it, you buy it with your eyes wide open. Its much better than the Biden family lining their pockets by funneling massive secret bribes from foreign businesses to this or that super secret corporate entity. Well, theyd be super secret if the recipients werent junkies.
When $TRUMP dumps, it will devastate retail holders and set the industry back many years.
Memecoin Volatility is a feature, not a bug. Crypto is a free market, stocks are manipulated by central banks, commercial banks and governments. Everyone knows this and knows that games are rigged. Remember GameStop? Crypto, for better or worse, is a global competitive free market with no ruling body. If people can now express their opinions about politicians through financial markets, that is progress. If politicians deceive their followers, they will be voted out of office.
Trump should focus on enacting regulations that support cryptocurrencies, not memecoins.
I think Trump has inadvertently given the people a new weapon to fight political corruption. Thats why the mainstream media is trying to cover it up. They recognize that the improper dealings in election advertising and campaign finance will come to a screeching halt. They also recognize that political campaigns that were not allowed to win can now change common sense by showing the correct political Memecoin price.
Memecoins, especially political memecoins, are useless; the industry should re-build “real” technology.
Anyone who says this has a bunch of zombie crypto in their portfolio. Or they are the founder of a project whose token price keeps falling. They see people expressing their passion through trading culture and are unhappy that they are not doing something useful with their money. They only believe that if civilian money goes into their pockets, it is useful. Go fuck yourself and your shitcoin.
Political memecoins as an asset class
Maelstrom could benefit from this movement in several ways.
L1 Blockchain
L1 blockchains benefit from memecoin transactions because every transaction must pay gas in the native token. Obviously, Solana is the chain where most memecoin transactions are made and is also the chain where $TRUMP was launched. However, according to Moonshot statistics, 50% of the wallets holding $TRUMP are new to Solana with almost no funds in the wallets. Therefore, Solana is not necessarily the chain where most political memecoin transactions are made.
You all know what Im going to say. Remember, Maelstrom doesnt provide services for free. We believe Aptos has a chance to corner this market. It comes down to speed and cost. Aptos has the fastest block times and cheapest transaction fees of all L1s. The way for Aptos to win this market is to seamlessly integrate with Web2 platforms that have users. Aptos was born from Web2 giant Facebook, and its team is capable of executing such collaborations. Stay tuned!
Spot.dog
Jupiter and Raydium are two of the most popular places to trade memecoin on-chain. Their tokens are performing very well and will continue to see increased trading volume. However, the user experience is more geared towards crypto-native users. For those who just want a memecoin that mimics their favorite politician, Spot.dog (a Maelstrom portfolio company) offers a much better and simpler UX for memecoin trading. Their user base is large due to their partnership with Stocktwits, and we believe this will become the go-to place for the average person to trade memecoin.
Political memecoin derivatives
Options
Political memecoins have created a need for options trading. This is because some discrete events, such as an election or a vote on a bill, can cause a drastic change in the popularity and price of a particular memecoin. The best way to express a bullish or bearish view on the outcome is to use options, which give you the right but not the obligation to buy (call) or sell (put) at a predetermined strike price. Platforms such as Derive (a Maelstrom portfolio company) are well suited to exploiting these markets.
On-chain ETFs
In the near future, when every politician around the world supports their own political memecoin, traders will want to trade a basket of memecoins related to a specific party. Imagine if you could trade the popularity of the US Democratic Party vs. the Republican Party based on the vote price of all elected members of the House of Representatives. Or, in a parliamentary system, you could trade the UK Labour Party vs. the Conservative Party. Maelstrom would definitely invest in a protocol that allows for the easy creation, listing, trading, and redemption of these types of political memecoin ETFs.
Political memecoins in non-Western countries
Will some non-Western leader launch his own political memecoin? No, not now, but maybe later.
While it is wonderful to enjoy the glory of the people through objective criteria, there are also drawbacks when your words and actions cause the price of a memecoin to drop. Eventually, every leader, democratically elected or not, will support their own political memecoin because people will no longer trust dishonest pollsters and the propaganda mainstream media machine when it comes to political popularity. They will demand a political memecoin, and eventually political memecoins will be issued.
Political memecoin as a barometer
Narcissism is a necessary character trait for successful politicians. They must be confident in their unique ability to envision a better future for everyone and constantly tell everyone how awesome they are. Therefore, I believe Trump checks the price of $TRUMP as often as he checks the level of the SP 500, which is to say, all the time.
$TRUMP is down about 80% from its highs, while Bitcoin has yet to reclaim $110,000 (a level reached at the peak of the $TRUMP mania). I believe that if crypto sentiment improves, $TRUMP will lead Bitcoin. If politicians believe that certain policies will have a positive impact on crypto, $TRUMP will surge ahead of the good news, and then Bitcoin will follow.
Given that other major fiat money printing centers are reacting to Trumps macroeconomic and monetary policies, with the U.S. leading the way and the rest of the world following closely, I have made $TRUMP a prominent part of my crypto watchlist. If I see it surging or dropping rapidly, then I know something is going on.
We have entered a new phase in crypto capital markets. We will now have a plethora of forward-looking tools to trade on political factors that directly impact cryptocurrency price action.
The game begins!
