The crypto market has been flat recently, lacking new market catalysts. Influenced by the news that MSTR intends to buy more BTC, BTC returned to the upward channel in the middle of last week, and reached a high of $99,475 on the evening of the 21st, with a maximum increase of 6.5% during the week. But then a black swan suddenly appeared, and Bybit was hacked and ETH worth more than $1.46 billion was stolen, which is the largest crypto security incident at present. The panic in the market intensified a large number of long stops on Bybit, and the market stabilized after falling.
Affected by US technology stocks, the SP and Nasdaq closed lower. At the same time, the Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar. The market was obviously risk-averse. BTC once fell below $89,000 and is currently quoted at $894,000 (the above data is from Binance spot).
Market Analysis
Technology stocks collectively weakened, and the yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar, triggering risk aversion in the market
The spread of the news that Microsoft has canceled its data center leasing plan has triggered discussions on Wall Street questioning the prospects of AI investment. With issues such as tariffs still unresolved, most large technology stocks have weakened collectively, with Nvidia falling more than 3%, Tesla and Meta falling more than 2%, Amazon and Microsoft falling more than 1%, and only Apple rising slightly. As of the close, the SP 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.21%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.08%.
As the market bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, the yen has risen by nearly 6% in six weeks. The current exchange rate of yen to the US dollar is 149.38, and is expected to challenge the three-month high of 148.84. Market risk aversion has soared, and BTC fell below $89,000 on the 25th. The market fear and greed index is extremely fearful. The international gold price hit a new record high. COMEX gold futures rose 0.49%, and once rose to $2,974 before the US stock market.
ETH is under great downward pressure, and continued decline may lead to continued weakening of the altcoin market
Bybit hackers still hold some ETH, and the market generally believes that this asset will have an impact on the price of ETH. At the same time, Bybit was expected to buy a large amount of ETH on the open market, but this assumption has been proven to be untrue. Affected by this information, ETH leverage positions have decreased, and the number of open contracts for ETH futures on the 24th has decreased significantly. Currently, ETH is quoted at $2,394, and is about to break through the core support level. The strengthening of the Japanese yen has also exacerbated the price volatility of ETH. If ETH continues to fall, it may cause a chain reaction in the entire cottage market.
Market Hotspots
Nvidias earnings report on Thursday attracted much attention, and the January personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index was also the focus of the market
The market is eagerly awaiting Nvidias financial report to be released on Thursday. Its financial report and performance outlook have important potential impacts on the entire AI industry chain.
Meanwhile, the January personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, which will be released on Friday, is also a market focus. It is the Feds preferred inflation indicator. Fed official Goolsbee said that the Fed should remain cautious as the government adjusts its policies. He still believes that interest rates will fall after a period of uncertainty, and believes that the impact of rising consumer inflation expectations is not significant. He is satisfied with the Feds progress on the road to achieving the 2% inflation target.
Crypto regulation improves, OKX Seychelles reaches settlement with the US Department of Justice
On the 22nd, Paul Grewal, chief legal officer of Coinbase, said that the US SEC has agreed to withdraw the lawsuit against Coinbase and not to file it again. Coinbase has paid $50 million in legal fees for the case. On the 25th, Aux Cayes FinTech Co. Ltd. (OKX Seychelles), one of OKXs subsidiaries, announced a settlement with an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice, admitting that the company had conducted remittance business in the United States without permission. In order to reach this settlement, the company agreed to pay a fine of $84 million and give up approximately $421 million in revenue from U.S. customers during this period.
The market generally believes that crypto regulation has gradually improved since Trump took office. According to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, given the SECs recent focus on staking, the agency may re-examine the lawsuit it filed last year against ConsenSys for its MetaMask staking service. In addition, the SEC previously accused ConsenSys of engaging in unregistered brokerage business, but this allegation has now been dropped, similar to the allegations that were dismissed in the Coinbase lawsuit.
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