Original article from Bankless
Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily Golem ( @web3_golem )
The trend of the crypto market depends on where Trumps butt is headed. Last night, Trump posted on social media that he would promote the strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies including XRP, SOL and ADA. Today, the long-sluggish altcoin market ushered in a V-shaped reversal. According to Quantify Crypto data, among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market value in the past 24 hours, only 10 tokens showed a downward trend, while the remaining 190 tokens all rose to varying degrees.
Is Trump going to bring about a bull market in the altcoin market with one move? Some players joked that cryptocurrency has become the political economics of research around Trumps family, and that it is better to buy American currency without thinking than to invest hard in value coins. However, from a time perspective, the strategic reserve of cryptocurrency will not be implemented in the short term. When the FOMO caused by short-term positive news ends, the final value of the altcoin will return to fundamentals. This rise in the altcoin market may also be the last resurrection before the great retreat of the bull market.
So, from a fundamental perspective, which altcoins are worth paying attention to in the future? Banklesss analyst team has been predicting the price trend of altcoins based on fundamentals. In this article, Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the Bankless analyst teams recent specific trend predictions and reasons for 8 altcoins, and summarize the winning rate of its predictions for tokens expiring in February 2025 for readers reference.
February expiration prediction success rate: 50%
Excluding the neutral tokens, there are 12 tokens predicted by the Bankless analysis team that expire in February. The prediction results are as follows:
Bullish but down: Aave (AAVE) down 12.72%; anoncast (ANON) down 95.54%; Near (NEAR) down 32.31%; Solana (SOL) down 9.15%; Helium Network (HNT) down 34.62%;
Forecast bearish but up: anoncast (ANON) up 41.54%;
The predicted rise and fall are consistent with the actual: Instadapp (INST) rose 8.04%; Ethereum Name Service (ENS) fell 21.68%; Drift (DRIFT) fell 53.45%; Jito (JTO) rose 35.81%; Toncoin (TON) fell 6.48%; XRP fell 2.53%.
Among them, anoncast (ANON) and anoncast (ANON) had the most serious backlash, and Drift (DRIFT) had the most accurate prediction, with a drop of 53.45% when the prediction time expired. However, the overall winning rate of the tokens predicted to expire in February is still 50%.
Bullish Coin Wrap
Sui (SUI)
Track: L1
Reason: Fundamentals are improving, application revenue and stablecoin market value continue to increase
Forecast period: February 25, 2025 to May 25, 2025
Predicted price: $2.8
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 5.71%
In the past three months, new chains such as Berachain, Unichain, and Ink have been launched, intensifying the competition between L1 and L2. Despite this, Sui continues to attract users and capital, with a net inflow of more than $570 million in the past three months.
From October to January 2024, Sui’s monthly app revenue grew from $2.24 million to $5.44 million, a growth that could attract more ecosystem builders looking to capitalize on the momentum. Since November 2024, Sui’s total stablecoin market capitalization has grown by 58%, indicating more users are being attracted to the chain, while Sui’s LST market capitalization has grown by 246% since November 2024. This not only strengthens the security of the network, but also indicates long-term confidence among users.
Berachain (BERA)
Track: L1
Reason: Airdrop selling pressure has subsided, and the token incentive model is novel
Forecast period: February 11, 2025 to May 11, 2025
Predicted price: $5.51
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 42.11%
Berachains BERA has plummeted by more than 60% since the airdrop on February 6, and its valuation has fallen to a reasonable level. The advantage of Berachain is that the novel PoL incentive stipulates the issuance of BGT, which can be converted into BERA at a 1:1 ratio, increasing returns to attract money-oriented DeFi participants. At the same time, user groups who want to participate in Berachain governance must accumulate BGT voting rights, which may also reduce selling pressure.
Berachain’s valuation is relatively low compared to other major L1s, which provides BERA with ample room for upside, and the initial airdrop selling pressure may have subsided.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bullish on BERAs subsequent performance and cautiously optimistic that its novel incentive structure may trigger a positive-sum deposit flywheel, that is, the initial inflow improves the fundamentals of the network, thereby increasing the value of the BGT incentive and attracting more deposits. But to make bera sustainable, Berachain must give people a reason to really use the network outside of Ponzi economics.
Pendle Finance (PENDLE)
Track: DeFi
Reason: TVL growth, there may be a large amount of capital flowing into the protocol in 2025
Forecast period: February 10, 2025 to May 10, 2025
Predicted price: $3.47
Prediction of price performance so far: down 17.87%
On November 8, 2024, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on PENDLEs subsequent performance because its native yield swap is an innovative financial instrument in the market. If the crypto market takes off, Pendle may achieve rapid growth.
In the past three months, a large amount of capital has flowed into Pendle, with TVL increasing from $2.964 billion to $5.11 billion, an increase of more than 70% , while PENDLE can be staked to obtain platform fees. Pendle recently released an update to its 2025 roadmap , in which it stated that it will expand to non-EVM ecosystems such as Solana and Hyperliquid, create financial instruments that comply with TradFi, and provide services that comply with Shariah principles to enter the Islamic finance sector worth approximately $3.9 trillion.
Uniswap (UNI)
Track: DeFi
Reason: Uniswap V4 will change the fundamentals of Uniswap
Forecast period: February 1, 2025 to May 1, 2025
Predicted price: $12.32
Prediction of price performance so far: down 35.55%
On January 31, Uniswap Labs announced the deployment of Uniswap V4, making the Uniswap protocol an open development platform through hooks, a new smart contract primitive that allows anyone to customize how pools, swaps, fees, and LP positions interact.
Although UNI has been the best performing crypto asset since Trumps election in November 2024, it eventually plunged nearly 50% as traders rushed to take advantage of favorable regulation. As the token price fell, Uniswap has been controversial with a downward trend in TVL and protocol fees since early December 2024. But with the launch of Uniswap V4 and increased flexibility for smart contract developers, many new third-party applications are entering the market. Any of these has the potential to reignite platform activity, which could improve Uniswaps fundamentals and drive token prices higher.
Bearish Coin Wrap-up
Sky（SKY）
Track: DeFi
Reason: Although the supply of stablecoins has expanded, it may face revenue problems
Forecast period: February 21, 2025 to May 21, 2025
Predicted price: $1447.95
Prediction of the price performance so far: up 2.63%
SKY/MKR has been rising for most of February, while the circulating supply of its USDS/DAI stablecoin has increased by 33%. But in an effort to retain depositors, a recent Sky governance proposal implored representatives to consider reducing stability fees — the interest charged to stablecoin borrowers — across multiple major vaults. If passed, the governance proposal would also reduce sDAI and sUSDS yields from current levels of 7.25% and 8.75% to 4.75% and 6.50% respectively (roughly the same rate offered by short-term U.S. Treasuries) to offset the revenue decline. While above-market yields enabled Sky to expand its USDS/DAI supply in February, that expansion was collateralized by low-yielding stablecoins and RWA assets, which caused the protocol to run at a net loss throughout the month.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is not optimistic about the subsequent performance of SKY/MKR and expects the protocol to encounter revenue problems in the near future as it hopes to strike a balance between declining cryptocurrency interest rates and profitable business operations. To achieve this, there must be an endogenous demand for cryptocurrency leverage and borrowers are willing to pay higher interest rates.
Velodrome (VELO)
Track: DEX
Reason: Liquidity and fees are decreasing, and the amount of VELO locked is also decreasing
Forecast period: February 21, 2025 to May 21, 2025
Predicted price: $0.07
Prediction of price performance so far: down 10.13%
Velodrome previously launched an update called Slipstream V2, which will enable mining pools to dynamically set fees based on market fluctuations, helping to maximize returns for liquidity providers and veVELO lockers, but VELO still experienced a plunge.
Velodrome net deposits have fallen 28% over the past 30 days, suggesting that LPs are moving their liquidity to other dApps for higher returns. During the same period, the platform’s fees have fallen 26%, suggesting that users looking to swap tokens are taking their business elsewhere. While the total supply of VELO is increasing each week due to the issuance schedule, the percentage of locked VELO has fallen from 64% to 55% over the past year. This suggests that users believe that holding and selling tokens later may yield better returns than locking them up and receiving LP rewards.
Lido (LDO)
Track: LST
Reason: Overall decline in ETH staking services
Forecast period: February 14, 2025 to May 14, 2025
Predicted price: $1.86
Prediction of price performance so far: down 29.57%
On November 7, 2024, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on Lidos subsequent performance, rationalizing that Trumps election would inspire investor optimism in the crypto space. Although Trump appointed some politicians who support cryptocurrencies, little progress has been made on key issues.
While Lido represents a large portion of the ETH staking market, its holdings have changed dramatically after more than 200,000 ETH was withdrawn from the platform. Lido is also not the only staking service that is experiencing a decline, with more than 1 million ETH unstaked since mid-November, the most aggressive drawdown of ETH since the merger.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bearish on Lidos subsequent performance, and ETH is not only flowing out of Lido, but also from other staking protocols.
Ethena (ENA)
Track: Stablecoin
Reason: Funding interest rates fall, depositors may withdraw funds
Forecast period: January 21, 2025 to April 21, 2025
Predicted price: $0.96
Prediction of the price performance so far: down 55.42%
The Bankless analyst team previously rated ENA bullish on October 18, 2024, optimistic that if the bull run in cryptocurrencies continues, rising funding rates are expected to catalyze explosive expansion of Ethenas profitability and assets under management. ENA rose more than 200% in the three months following this rating.
On January 20, the same day President Trump was inaugurated, his eldest son announced that the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial project had acquired more than $11 million in crypto assets, including $47,000 in ENA token purchases. But the market froth has cooled significantly since December, causing the perpetual swap funding rate (Ethena’s main source of income) to reset to “neutral” territory.
As a result, the Bankless analyst team has turned ENA’s subsequent performance into a bearish one, citing concerns that a resumption of stagnant funding rates will force depositors to further withdraw funds from Ethena, just as it did in mid-2024, when ENA plunged 85% from its post-launch highs.
