Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @Odaily China )
Compiled by Dingdang ( @XiaMiPP )
Looking back at the recent crypto market, it can be said to be very lively. Especially at the US policy level, the discussion around Bitcoin crypto reserves has gone from hotly debated to shoes dropped - on March 7, Trump signed an executive order to formally establish the US Bitcoin strategic reserve. In addition, in the early morning of March 8, the White House Crypto Summit was held . Although no substantive plan was passed, it opened a channel for dialogue between the government and the industry.
Odaily Planet Daily and OKX invited four crypto industry researchers and KOLs to discuss the crypto asset reserves and their impact on the future market. The guests are: SoSoValue analyst Huii, KOL Amanda, Amber researcher Haoyu, and options trading player Sober. First, please let the guests introduce themselves.
Amanda: Hello everyone, I am Amanda, and I work full-time in cryptocurrency. I will share my views from the perspective of KOL and leek. Thank you for the invitation and I look forward to the exchange.
Sober: Hello everyone, I am Sober. I have been engaged in options trading in traditional finance for ten years and have been in the crypto market for four years. I focus on options trading and hold a CFA certificate. Currently, I mainly trade Bitcoin options and US stock options.
Huii: Hello everyone, I am Huii, a researcher at SoSoValue. I come from traditional finance and now I am in the crypto industry. SoSoValue is an AI-driven investment research platform that combines traditional finance and Web3. It has been established for a year and a half and has attracted more than 50 million users. The core users are Wall Street institutions and traditional investors in the United States and Japan. We create an equal rights investment research platform, similar to the free Bloomberg terminal. At the end of last year, SSI Protocol was launched, and users can package multi-chain tokens into SSI tokens to achieve index investment-style passive income.
Haoyu: Hello everyone, I am Haoyu. I used to work in traditional financial real estate funds, then switched to Web3, and now I am a researcher at Amber DAO. Amber DAO is an incubation project established by Amber last year, focusing on discovering high-quality cryptocurrencies and AI projects. I am very happy to participate in the event.
Odaily Planet Daily: On March 7, David, the White House AI and encryption director, wrote that Trump signed an executive order to establish a US strategic Bitcoin reserve. The reserve comes from Bitcoins confiscated by the government, and the official emphasized that it will not increase the burden on taxpayers. Previously, Trump claimed to establish a national crypto reserve during his campaign, which was interpreted by the outside world as using funds to buy Bitcoin, but the final plan deviated from expectations. What do you think of this executive order?
Amanda: From an administrative perspective, Trump has fulfilled some of his campaign promises. He signed an executive order to establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, proposed the establishment of a crypto advisory committee, and promoted regulatory relaxation, becoming the most supportive of cryptocurrency among recent US presidents. But the promise was not fully fulfilled. He once said that he would build a reserve by purchasing Bitcoin, but the actual plan was limited to Bitcoin confiscated by the judiciary, not using fiscal funds. The government will not enter the market with real money, and the direct stimulus to the crypto market is limited, and the effect is not as expected. However, I am optimistic: the order clearly states that the government will not sell Bitcoin. Although it is more conservative than the radical support expected by the market, it still fulfills some of the promises.
Sober: Trumps consistent style of doing things makes this decision not surprising. He promised to support Bitcoin during the campaign, which was seen as a strategy to win over young voters . Although there are actions now, the results are different from expectations, which conforms to the logic of buy expectations and sell facts . I analyze from the perspective of options trading and pay attention to implied volatility (IV). Before the summit, the actual volatility and IV increased sharply, affected by the high level of the US stock panic index (VIX). After the summit, the shoe fell, and market sentiment turned to a low ebb, digesting the previous shocks. If there is no major black swan in the US stock market (such as the decline of Magnificent Seven and the difficulty of Nvidias high valuation to continue), I am bullish on BTC in the future, but cautious about other targets.
Haoyu: I analyze it from the perspective of hindsight. It is inevitable that Trump chooses a compromise solution. During the campaign, he proposed a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, which was funded by special government funds and did not require congressional approval to reduce resistance. However, the opposition questioned: the special funds still come from taxpayers in essence, and bypassing Congress to purchase coins will cause controversy. In the current political climate, interest groups and public opposition make it difficult to implement. Establishing reserves through asset confiscation is the best solution in reality, providing a legal basis for federal policies and sending signals to states and companies that the federal government is open to digital assets. Instead of focusing on the short-term fluctuations of Bitcoin, it is better to focus on how states and companies respond to federal policies, which may be a key variable in the future.
Huii: The market had previously expected too much , and was looking forward to the rapid introduction of incremental funds. However, under the US legislative system, Trump can only implement executive orders quickly, such as retaining confiscated assets and not selling them, which is within his authority. There are two ways to introduce incremental funds, and both require the approval of Congress: one is to establish reserves with an additional budget, and the other is to establish a sovereign wealth fund to purchase Bitcoin. However, there are two practical constraints: the cabinet appointments have not been completed, and the budget bill must be finalized on March 15, otherwise there will be a government shutdown crisis. Incremental funds will be difficult to pass Congress in the short term, and the second half of the year is a more reasonable time window, which is the core issue.
On the other hand, although Congress is slow to legislate, the SEC has already taken action. At the end of March, the SEC will hold a roundtable meeting to clarify the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. In the past two years, DeFi has been limited by unclear regulations. Now, the industry is steadily moving forward with initiatives that do not require congressional approval, such as withdrawing lawsuits and accelerating ETF approvals. These developments are orderly, but they are not in line with the markets aggressive expectations.
Odaily Planet Daily: Many people have noticed that Trumps attitude towards cryptocurrencies has changed significantly. In his last term, he regarded cryptocurrencies as enemies and frequently made opposing remarks. However, in the past two years, especially after winning the election, his attitude has changed drastically and become more positive. He not only launched his personal Meme coin, but is also regarded as an important promoter of the Trump Family Project. What do the guests think of his change of attitude and his recent actions? What might be his considerations?
Amanda: I analyzed Trump’s attitude change from three perspectives: political interests, personal interests and crisis shift.
The first is political interests. Since 2024, Trumps change of attitude has been clearly related to winning the support of crypto voters and capital . About 40% of crypto users are young people who are dissatisfied with the traditional financial system. By embracing cryptocurrencies, Trump positioned himself as an anti-establishment pioneer and successfully attracted this vote base. During the election, the crypto industry became an important source of political funds. For example, Solana-related funds converted funds into political capital by contacting Trumps core circle. After being elected, his crypto policy was suspected of returning favors. Although some people questioned that he might not fulfill his promises, the political cost of violating the expectations of voters and capital was too high, so he tended to introduce a compromise solution.
The second is personal interests. The Trump family has long been deeply involved in cryptocurrencies, and its Meme coin project and rumors of rat trading have caused controversy. This shows that his promotion of crypto policies is not only related to the country, but also closely related to the appreciation of family wealth .
The third is crisis transfer. The United States is currently facing high inflation and debt crises , which are difficult to alleviate with traditional means such as issuing bonds and raising taxes. Trump launched the Crypto Reserve Plan, intending to divert public attention with the narrative of the United States dominates the future of crypto and cover up the reality of fiscal out-of-control. Some people joked that if Bitcoin rises to a sky-high price, the United States can use it to repay trillions of dollars in debt. Although this is a joke, it reflects that in the context of economic recession, the government lacks new stimulus measures and may reap the people through financial innovation. If a country has too much Bitcoin, the crypto market may become a tool for wealth transfer. Today, Bitcoin is highly linked to U.S. stocks, and the pricing power of domestic whales may gradually be lost.
Summary: Trump’s motives are consistent with his characteristics as a “businessman president” and reflect his utilitarian strategy of “policies for votes, insider information for wealth, and bubbles to cover up crises.”
Sober: I interpret Trumps transformation from two dimensions: policy considerations and economic interests.
Policy considerations. This is Trumps second term. Compared with his first term, he is more like a mature politician, but his businessman nature has not changed. It is his consistent strategy to differentiate himself from the Biden administration . For example, last week he and Vance met with Zelensky, and the two sides had a fierce dispute, highlighting his opposition to Biden on encryption policy. Biden has a negative attitude towards encryption, while Trump has targeted young voters through the image of crypto president . Today, his staff and senior officials have enhanced their ability to guide public opinion. For example, NBC and BBCs recent positive reports on his policies show that he has grown from a political novice to an experienced hand.
Economic interests. Trump sees cryptocurrencies as business expansion opportunities . He has become a super crypto KOL and his meme coin TRUMP was criticized by Dragonfly Capital executives when it was launched. Recently, he mentioned SOL, XRP, ADA and other currencies, which is suspected of carrying goods. This will extract market liquidity in the short and medium term, and retail investors will suffer losses, and only those who ambush in advance will benefit. For the market, his personal economic interests may backfire.
Suggestions: Holders can firmly believe in the long-term value of Bitcoin; Traders can take advantage of Trumps emotional trading, such as selling volatility when volatility is high in the options market and buying call options when it is calm. It is not difficult to make thousands to ten thousand dollars a day. The key is to make good use of resources, not complain about the environment.
Haoyu: I tend to take Holders perspective and agree more with Amandas analysis from the perspective of family and voters .
Family interests. The Trump family started out in real estate, but the global real estate market has stagnated, and AI, blockchain, and new energy have become new favorites for capital. It is logical for the family to turn to encryption to seek breakthroughs . I personally also switched from real estate to Crypto because of a similar background.
From the perspective of voters. In the tug-of-war with Biden, Trump needs to win over emerging groups. Crypto users are mostly young people with low political participation. Compared with Biden, his positive attitude can attract this part of the votes. From the perspective of family interests and political games, the transformation is inevitable, and cryptocurrency provides a new stage for it.
I am skeptical about whether Trumps aggressive purchase of coins will benefit the US economy . Gold reserves once consolidated the hegemony of the US dollar, but after the dollar was decoupled from gold, the combination of US debt and the US dollar has stabilized. If the US dollar stablecoin bill is supported, its economic significance is clear, but whether Bitcoin can become the new digital gold to support the US dollar remains in doubt. This may be the reason why he is not as radical as he was during the campaign. This is just my personal opinion.
Huii: The previous speakers have elaborated on the perspectives of voters and others. I will start from the US fiscal difficulties and analyze Trumps deep motivation for attaching importance to encryption.
Fiscal difficulties. Last week, Trump mentioned balanced budget in his first State of the Union address in his new term. The speech lasted nearly two hours, setting a historical record. This points to the US fiscal crisis: in the past two years, high inflation has pushed up US bond interest rates to more than 5%, and the Biden administration has continued to issue bonds, leaving a huge burden. If interest payments and bond issuance are out of control, the interest on the national debt will exceed the defense budget in 2026. This has rekindled the discussion of the rise of the East and the fall of the West, and unlimited bond issuance is unsustainable.
Response strategy. Trumps new cabinet reached a consensus that there are two solutions:
Boosting asset value: including Internet companies (AI) and crypto assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.). Crypto assets are of great significance due to the stablecoin ecosystem dominated by the US dollar (mostly US debt at the bottom), and rising prices are beneficial to their finances.
Adding tariffs will lead to the depreciation of the US dollar: it may cause an economic recession in the short term, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which is directly related to fiscal spending and national destiny.
Stablecoins are particularly critical, as they hold U.S. debt and play the role of a creditor who “never redeems” the debt. If the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are raised, and stablecoins are bound to the U.S. debt ecosystem, the “U.S. encryption system” may be iterated, similar to the currency war of the Bretton Woods system. This is Trump’s long-term consideration.
Market volatility <br/>In addition to the lower-than-expected reserves , the deeper reason for the recent volatility is the weakening of US stocks. In the early days of Trumps presidency, the market believed in American exceptionalism, but now the consensus has shifted to the governments tolerance of short-term economic weakness. Starting from April 2, the tariff increase will actually take effect, and US stocks and risky assets will be under pressure. This will have a greater impact on the crypto market than the expected gap in reserves, and volatility has therefore risen sharply.
Odaily Planet Daily: Now that Trump has signed an executive order on Bitcoin reserves, guests may wish to imagine what changes may occur in the United States and other countries in the future?
Huii: I think it is of great significance that Trump signed the executive order on Bitcoin reserves and publicly called out orders last Sunday (such as mentioning ETH, ADA, etc.). This is not limited to Bitcoin, but provides a kind of official certification for cryptocurrencies. For a long time, assets such as Bitcoin have often been questioned as scams or too volatile and no reserve value, especially at the national level. Now, the US move has vindicated it, and the endorsement effect is significant.
For example, after the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last year, the global market responded quickly, especially Hong Kong, which quickly launched related ETFs in April 2024, demonstrating the United States leading role in asset definition. Against this background, subsequent changes are worth looking forward to.
Expected policy changes: Other regions may adjust their policies due to this. Countries and regions that were previously unfriendly to cryptocurrencies may gradually change their positions under the leadership of the United States. Although the specific time is unknown, this is a foreseeable trend.
The impact of Bitcoin as a reserve asset:
The inclusion of Bitcoin in national reserves will enhance the security of its assets. Although ETFs have brought in hundreds of billions of dollars, traditional financial institutions, especially long-term holding funds, still have limited participation due to strict compliance requirements.
If the U.S. government recognizes Bitcoin as a reserve asset, it will provide compliance basis for these institutions and promote more funds to enter the crypto market through various channels. The scale of this incremental funds may far exceed the impact of the U.S. national reserve itself, and is the key to leveraging the global traditional asset allocation.
Of course, this process takes time, especially for large institutions, which usually take 6 to 12 months to adjust their compliance processes, so we should remain patient.
Haoyu: I agree with SoSoValue that after Trump signs the executive order, the United States and the world will usher in optimistic changes.
Changes in the United States:
The congressmans proposal has led state and city governments to consider purchasing Bitcoin as reserves. After the executive order is signed, I expect more local governments to actively promote similar bills, and even large companies to follow suit.
For example, last year almost all Microsoft employees were opposed to allocating Bitcoin, but this year we may pay attention to whether Amazon and Apple will allocate a small amount (such as less than 5%) of Bitcoin assets.
The American political system focuses on bottom-up development , and local and business needs often drive policy evolution rather than top-down enforcement.
Changes at the international level:
Other countries may respond more aggressively than the U.S. The U.S. two-party system limits rapid decision-making in emerging areas to some extent, while other countries have more flexible political systems that can quickly adjust policies.
For example, Hong Kong, China quickly launched Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in late 2023. In the future, China may take measures in a low-key manner and suddenly turn around when the time is right.
Small countries may be more radical and directly follow the example of the United States in reserving Bitcoin.
In addition, the SEC can respond quickly without congressional approval. If it relaxes the standards this year, it may attract global crypto companies to go public in the United States. This is good for both the price of the currency and the development of enterprises.
If this trend takes shape, it will inject vitality into crypto startups outside Europe and the United States, and promote financial support and international cooperation. As an incubator and accelerator, we are looking forward to this because it means more opportunities.
Sober: From the perspective of the secondary market , let me first talk about the 200,000 bitcoins in the U.S. reserve , which accounts for about 1% of the circulation , and is not a small amount. Currently, 11 Bitcoin ETFs hold about 1.1 million BTC, accounting for 40% of the active circulation (non-cold wallets) , and the pricing power has tilted towards ETFs. If the reserve policy drives more traditional capital inflows, this trend will be more optimistic, avoiding problems such as rat warehouses in the crypto market in the past .
In addition, this may trigger a global crypto reserve competition . Although El Salvador took the lead in reserve, it only holds about 6,000 coins, which is limited in scale. If the United States promotes it, other small countries with serious currency depreciation may follow suit, and the probability will increase significantly.
From the perspective of geopolitics and financial games , the United States’ establishment of Bitcoin reserve standards has strengthened the dollar’s dominance in international trade and the encryption market, similar to the “TSMC” model in the chip field, forming a generational monopoly advantage.
Finally, the market value of Bitcoin is about 1.8 trillion US dollars (in US$80,000). If it continues to rise, it may change the traditional asset allocation pattern. Currently, pension funds, 401(k), etc. usually allocate US bonds and gold. In the future, Bitcoin may be considered a regular option. More than ten years ago, who would have thought that decentralized assets would become a national strategic reserve?
In the long run, Bitcoins Beta and Alpha potential is promising, but we need to avoid being disrupted by short-term fluctuations .
Amanda: I analyze the impact of this executive order from both short-term and long-term perspectives.
In the short term, I am not optimistic. The market originally expected the United States to use its fiscal budget to purchase coins to drive up prices, but it actually adopted a neutral solution with insufficient strength. As SoSoValue said, this is an orderly advancement rather than a radical move, which may trigger selling sentiment in the short term. Yesterday, BTC fell by about 3%, reflecting the markets disappointment with the size and speed of reserves, which is reasonable.
In the long run, this is a positive signal. Trump intends to change the rules, which may trigger a domino effect. Following El Salvador, the United Statess reserve of Bitcoin may lead other countries to follow suit and accelerate the process of globalization. I am optimistic about this, but the actual impact depends on the details of implementation and global response. Short-term sentiment may be sluggish, but the long-term outlook is promising.
Odaily Planet Daily: Lets discuss the White House Crypto Summit held early this morning. Before the summit, the crypto community had high hopes for it and expected major policies to be introduced, but the conference was disconnected only 20 minutes after it started, and ultimately no substantive documents or plans were reached. According to reliable sources, Trump said at the meeting that he would promote stablecoin legislation and hoped to complete it before the congressional recess in August this year. What do the guests think of stablecoin legislation and its impact on the crypto industry and the United States?
Amanda: I analyze the potential impact of stablecoin legislation from three aspects:
Impact on stablecoin issuers. The market has always been skeptical about the compliance and transparency of stablecoins. If the new regulations can provide a clear compliance framework, it will help enhance the credibility of stablecoins and strengthen investor confidence. Possible policy requirements include:
Improve reserve transparency and avoid USDT-like opaque reserve disputes;
Strengthen information disclosure obligations to make regulators and investors more aware of where funds are flowing;
Improve the transparency and risk resistance of the ecosystem, thereby attracting traditional financial institutions and enterprises to enter the market and promoting the development of sub-sectors such as DeFi.
Accelerate the integration of the banking and crypto industries. If banks are allowed to issue compliant digital dollars, it will further deepen the integration of traditional finance and the crypto industry and enhance the maturity of the entire industry. For example, banks may become the main issuers of stablecoins, promoting the compliant development of digital dollars; the traditional banking system will be more closely connected with DeFi, promoting richer financial innovations.
Impact on the hegemony of the US dollar. The official recognition of stablecoins may further consolidate the dollars position as the worlds dominant currency and weaken the influence of competing currencies such as Chinas digital RMB in international trade. It is worth noting that the US Treasury Secretary clearly mentioned at the summit that the government will deeply consider the stablecoin regulatory system to maintain the dollars position as the global reserve currency. Overall, the long-term impact of stablecoin legislation on the industry and the United States is positive, but there is still uncertainty about the implementation timetable.
Sober: I analyze stablecoin legislation from both the pros and cons .
Advantages. (1) Stablecoins are the core of peer-to-peer currency transmission on blockchains. As a long-term trader, my experience shows that USDT and USDC have extremely wide application scenarios. However, since they are essentially just USD-anchored assets, the price of the currency will not rise, but instead highlight their irreplaceable market demand.
(2) Improved regulation of stablecoins will enhance industry confidence. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 caused USDC to temporarily decouple to $0.7, exposing the systemic risks of some stablecoins; the collapse of TerraUSD (UST) caused the market to distrust algorithmic stablecoins ; if the regulatory compliance threshold is raised, it will help avoid the systemic risks of small stablecoins and increase market trust.
Disadvantages: (1) The timetable for legislation is uncertain. For example, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF was postponed from the initially expected 100 days to August, so stablecoin legislation may also encounter similar delays. In the short term, this will have limited impact on the market, and investors still need to wait patiently.
(2) The Trump family’s interest connection. The stablecoin policy may be related to the Trump family’s WLFI project. Trump’s policies are often accompanied by family “smart deals”, which deserves the market’s attention. Will it affect the direction of legislation? Will there be a policy tilt? These issues are worth observing in advance.
Haoyu: My focus is on how stablecoin legislation affects the integration of traditional finance and the crypto market.
Stablecoin legislation may become a bridge for traditional investment institutions to enter the crypto market. In the past, stablecoins such as USDT/USDC faced many obstacles when connecting with the traditional US dollar system, such as difficulty in opening bank accounts and strict AML (anti-money laundering) reviews, which led to poor capital flow in the crypto industry. If legislation is implemented, it will bring a clear compliance framework, allowing banks and traditional financial institutions to interact with stablecoins more smoothly.
In addition, I think: the Fed’s attitude has loosened somewhat. Powell said in February that banks should reduce excessive regulation of crypto businesses, which may provide support for stablecoin legislation. In the long run, the clarification of stablecoin regulation will attract more traditional institutional funds to flow into the crypto market.
Huii: As mentioned by previous guests, stablecoins are the core infrastructure of the crypto market. I analyze its importance from two perspectives:
Stablecoins support global holdings of U.S. debt. Through stablecoins, the U.S. government can continue to attract global capital to hold U.S. debt, enhance its financing capabilities, and maintain economic stability. This further consolidates the dollars dominant position in global asset pricing and is closely related to the U.S.s long-term financial strategy.
Stablecoin legislation may promote the deep integration of traditional finance and the crypto industry. At present, stablecoins such as USDT/USDC still face problems such as account opening, capital flow, and AML supervision in the connection with the traditional financial system. If the legislation is implemented, it will clarify how banks review the inflow and outflow of stablecoin funds, improve transaction efficiency, and reduce obstacles to capital flow.
Long-term competitive impact
Stable currency legislation strengthens the hegemony of the US dollar or poses a challenge to the sovereign currencies of other countries. For example, will the competitiveness of China and Europe in the field of digital currency be affected? Will they accelerate the promotion of their own digital currency systems?
Future challenges for decentralized stablecoins. If compliant stablecoins dominate the market in the future, the development space for decentralized stablecoins (such as DAI) may be compressed; but this may also prompt the crypto market to explore more competitive decentralized stablecoin mechanisms and even innovate in the distribution of benefits.
In summary, I believe that although there is uncertainty in the timing of the implementation of stablecoin legislation, its impact is far-reaching and deserves continued attention.
Odaily Planet Daily: For crypto investors, the boots of Bitcoin reserves have landed, and some of the visions previously described by Trump have basically been realized. But at the current time point, many people feel that the market is a bit boring and lacks new narratives. So, where will the future market go? Can the guests share some tracks or timetables of major events that investors can focus on?
Huii: Given that my personal background is biased towards traditional finance, I may start from a macro perspective. I think the market will not be boring in the coming period, but will be quite lively. For crypto investors, I suggest paying attention to subsequent narratives and changes from three main dimensions: macroeconomics, regulatory policies, and crypto ETFs.
First, at the macro level. The recent sluggish performance of US stocks and the suppression of crypto assets such as Bitcoin prices are the core reason for the Trump administrations clear policy of imposing tariffs and high interest rates. In the short term, this may be unfavorable to US stocks and may even lead to a weaker economy - not a recession, but enough to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Investors can pay attention to several key data:
Inflation data: Imposing tariffs will inevitably push up prices. For example, the price of eggs in the United States has soared to a high level recently, and inflation expectations have risen sharply since the beginning of the year. Whether Trump can hedge inflation by lowering oil prices, the trend of CPI data deserves close attention.
Consumption data: As the core pillar of the US economy, if consumption continues to decline, it may become a trigger for the Feds policy shift. Recently, the Fed has begun to mention the risk of stagflation (high inflation and economic weakness coexist), but still said it would stand still. If the economy is under too much pressure, interest rate cuts may come earlier. This is a major turning point at the macro level. The market generally expects that there may be clues in May and June.
The second is the regulatory level . I am particularly looking forward to the policy progress of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Currently, there are only three commissioners left in the SEC. Because the personnel have not yet been replaced, Trump has nominated a new chairman. After the Senate confirms, the SEC will return to four commissioners (three Republicans and one Democrat), and the policy will be promoted more smoothly. The SEC has announced that it will launch an industry roundtable meeting at the end of March . The theme may be Spring Sprint for Crypto Clarity. If the regulatory framework is clearer, payment finance (PayFi), decentralized finance (DeFi) and other fields may usher in a new round of outbreaks, and there may be major progress after April.
Finally, there are crypto ETFs . Recently, institutions have been submitting or accepting various cryptocurrency ETF applications every day. For example, Solana (SOL)s 19 B-4 filing has been accepted. ETF approval involves two types of documents: S-1 (similar to a prospectus) and 19 B-4 (a document that regulates new asset types).
19 B-4 requires an initial response within 45 days after acceptance, and a final result must be given within 240 days . The previous Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were approved on the last day , and this round of SOL, XRP and other ETFs may be accelerated.
SOL’s 19 B-4 deadline is October 10, which means that a number of ETFs will be approved and ready to go public before October this year.
Currently, Bitcoin ETFs hold 5.7% of the circulation, and Ethereum ETFs account for 3%. The launch of ETFs such as SOL, XRP, and DOGE in the future will further connect traditional markets with on-chain assets and form a new narrative. The short-term observation point is the 45-day deadline of SOL (March 29), but it may be postponed; in the long term, there will be more progress before October.
Haoyu: Let me talk about it briefly from a micro perspective. The so-called lack of trends may refer to the lack of achievable hot spots in the short and medium term, but I dont think this is necessarily a bad thing. In this case, entrepreneurs and investors begin to pay attention to the utility of the industry, which may trigger a reshuffle of the industry, from blind speculation to real value creation. This is a manifestation of industry progress. The future direction should focus on tracks that can bring real value to the encryption field.
I personally like two areas:
AI+Crypto: AI may become the underlying technology for the widespread application of cryptocurrency. When investing, one should focus on projects with practical scenarios and value rather than simply innovative gimmicks.
PayFi (payment finance): Combining the financial attributes of cryptocurrency with Web2 usage scenarios, it has more potential in the short and medium term. There may be new changes after April, and I am looking forward to it.
Sober: I think the short narrative vacuum is actually a good time to “sharpen your knife.” From a macro perspective, since Trump took office, the U.S. stock market fear index (VIX) has risen one level compared to before, and overall uncertainty has increased.
The recent correction in US stocks (such as Magnificent 7, Nvidia, and Tesla) provides opportunities for high-quality assets. Investors can take advantage of high volatility, use options to brush cash flow, or allocate assets (such as SPY, QQQ, or individual stocks) during the correction.
From the perspective of encryption, Bitcoin is similar to a small Nasdaq and has a strong linkage with the US stock market. Investors can take advantage of the 7 × 24-hour trading and the staggered peaks before and after the US stock market to do option grid trading and obtain cash flow.
This round has not seen a widespread copycat season, and some old players have withdrawn from the circle, but if you can make good use of volatility, you dont need to worry too much about short-term market conditions.
My advice is: be patient and keep your cash flow flowing.
Amanda: SoSoValue and Haoyu have already explained it very comprehensively. I would like to briefly add my opinion on the “Trump Pie”: Trump’s executive order is not the complete implementation of the Bitcoin reserve plan, but only one part of it.
Administrative orders are directly controlled by the government, and there is no separate budget for currency purchases;
The bill proposed by the senator requires approval from Congress and plans to purchase 1 million BTC within 5 years. The budget may come from the expansion of gold reserve valuation to provide financial support for the Ministry of Finance.
The track I have been focusing on is AI , especially projects that can be implemented . For example, I once studied a case in which a project sent raw materials into space via a spacecraft, manufactured high-quality pharmaceutical materials in a weightless environment, and then transported them back to Earth via a reusable spacecraft, using blockchain to track production and ownership throughout the process. This kind of innovation combined with actual scenarios is the direction I value.
Odaily Planet Daily: What do the guests think of this years crypto market? Can you predict the highest price of Bitcoin? Is there still hope for Ethereum as the second dragon?
Amanda: Regarding the price of Bitcoin, I am not optimistic in the short term, but I am still optimistic in the long term . However, I am not responsible for the prediction, only for the position. If we estimate according to the rule that the high point of each bull market rises by about 4 times , 200,000 to 250,000 US dollars may be the peak of this round.
As for Ethereum, it has performed poorly this round, with the exchange rate continuing to fall. Recently, it has been affected by the theft of 500,000 ETH from Bybit and the market crash by hackers. But it still has two core highlights:
Important options outside of Bitcoin reserves - institutional investors will still consider allocating ETH;
The only non-BTC asset with a spot ETF - institutions such as BlackRock are gradually increasing their holdings.
It will take time for Ethereum to break out, and if the buy point is low enough, I think it is still an acceptable configuration.
Sober: I think Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $200,000 this year. If there is a follow-up by national reserves or a boost from the release of US stocks , there may even be a bulldozer market . The problem with Ethereum is that Bitcoins monopoly is increasing, which is reflected in several aspects:
National reserves, MSTR’s continued purchases, and ETF holdings have made BTC a core consensus asset;
Ethereum’s public chain status has been weakened. Although the Layer 2 ecosystem is prosperous, it is difficult to form a “high-quality monopoly asset” like BTC.
My personal investment strategy prefers monopoly targets, so I will not allocate Ethereum spot, and will only use options cautiously to go long. In the long run (more than 4 years) , if Vitalik can promote ecological improvements, ETH may still rise, but the short-term pressure is still relatively large.
Haoyu: My focus is on how traditional investors view and enter the crypto market.
Bitcoin may reach $100,000 to $150,000 this year. Once it breaks through technical resistance, it will depend on macro-level positive factors.
Ethereum is more like a leading stock while Bitcoin is digital gold.
If traditional investors want to enter the primary market , they may prefer the Ethereum ecosystem, but the premise is that there must be real value support, rather than just relying on market hype.
Huii: I look at market trends in two stages .
In the first half of the year, due to the pressure on the US stock market and the US economy, as well as the tightening of global liquidity (such as the ECBs suspension of interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japans possible interest rate hikes), risky assets (including Bitcoin and Ethereum) may face pressure and increase volatility. Therefore, investors are advised to avoid leverage operations.
In the second half of the year, if the regulatory environment becomes clearer (for example, it is clear which assets are legal and which are restricted), and with the rise of the new DeFi narrative, the crypto market may usher in independent Alpha (excess returns).
Our internal AI tool SOCKETIS predicts three scenarios for Bitcoin:
Optimistic scenario (30% probability): Bitcoin reaches $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year, provided that the national strategic reserve is implemented and institutions continue to increase their holdings;
Neutral scenario: $100,000 to $150,000, a high probability market volatility range;
Support level: $70,000, which is the bottom range of BTC if the macro environment deteriorates.
For Ethereum, our AI Bot’s prediction is relatively pessimistic:
The previous high is good, but the probability of $5,000 to $6,000 is less than 25%;
In the short term, it is constrained by competitive pressure (such as Solana and other public chains) and centralization issues ;
In the long run, the vitality of the DeFi ecosystem may determine the future trend of ETH.
Moderator: Today we discussed Bitcoin reserves, Trump policies, stablecoin legislation, and US dollar hegemony, and predicted market trends and investment directions. Thank you to all the guests for participating in the Space event jointly organized by Odaily Planet Daily and OKX Chinese. In the future, we will hold similar discussions regularly, and everyone is welcome to follow Odaily APP to get more information on the crypto market.
