BTC has been rising for two consecutive weeks, the long-short game has intensified, and the overall trend is fluctuating upward. Last week, the BTC price opened at $81,133.53, and climbed to $87,032.24 on the 19th. Affected by the Federal Reserves interest rate decision, it fell slightly to $83,134.01. Since the 23rd, BTC has risen for two consecutive days, reaching a high of $88,781.22. It is currently stable around $87,000, with the largest increase of 9.42% during the week.
ETH is still in a consolidation phase this week, with an overall upward trend. Currently, the price of ETH is hovering around $2,000, with the largest weekly increase of 12.43% (the above data comes from Binance spot, real-time data at 17:00 on March 25).
The three major US stock indexes stabilized. As of the close of March 24, the Nasdaq rose by more than 2%, the SP 500 rose by 1.76%, and the Dow Jones rebounded by nearly 600 points, returning to above 42,000 points.
Market Interpretation
SP 500 breaks above 200-day moving average, positive technical signals
On March 24, the SP 500 index broke through its 200-day moving average (200 DMA) for the first time since March 10, indicating that the market may usher in a new trend shift. BTC also broke through its 200-day moving average, with a breakout point of $85,046, and the current price is close to $88,000, with the next target being the short-term holder realization price of $93,245. This price is often regarded as a key technical resistance level in the market.
After a correction of about 10%, the SP 500 rose 1.7% on March 24, breaking through the 200-day moving average, indicating that stock market sentiment has rebounded. BTCs performance echoes the stock market rebound, and positive signals appear on the technical side. Overall, the stock market rebound supports BTC, and the market shows certain upward potential on the technical side.
BTC Spot ETF inflows pick up, price bottoms out
After falling for five consecutive weeks, BTC Spot ETF saw inflows this week, showing that the market demand for BTC has picked up. Data shows that this week, BTC Spot ETF recorded a total of $1.05 billion in net inflows in five trading days. This inflow of funds provided support for the rebound in BTC prices. At the same time, the inflow of stablecoins also reached $958 million, and the overall inflow of funds reached $1.95 billion, indicating that despite the panic in the market, funds are still flowing and providing support to the market.
ETH exchange supply drops to a 10-year low, market liquidity tightens
On March 24, Santiment data showed that the available supply of ETH on exchanges fell to 8.97 million, the lowest level in nearly a decade, accounting for about 7.5% of the market value. This change indicates that market liquidity is tight, DeFi and staking products have attracted funds, resulting in a decrease in the supply of ETH in the market. Although selling pressure has eased, the supply crunch has also increased price volatility, and the market is more sensitive to large transactions.
At the same time, the ETH ETF saw an outflow of $401 million in March, accounting for 5.9% of total assets, while the BTC ETF saw an outflow of $893 million, accounting for 0.9%. Year-to-date, ETH is down 37%, while BTC is down 7.5%. Although the ETH ETF saw a small inflow in early March, the overall inflow was much lower than the previous two months, and the gap with the BTC ETF was large. Since March, the price of ETH has fallen by 8.5%, while BTC has risen by 3%. Overall, market sentiment is weak and capital outflows continue, resulting in relatively weak performance of ETH.
The market entered a consolidation period, and the activity on the chain cooled down
According to data from Glassnode on March 24, BTC on-chain activity has declined and the number of transactions has decreased, indicating that the market has entered a correction period. BTCs Hot Supply indicator has dropped from 5.9% to 2.8%, a drop of more than 50%, reflecting a decrease in active capital in the market.
In addition, the share of BTC miners in on-chain transactions fell to 4.23%, the lowest since November 2022, indicating that miners have reduced their selling behavior and the selling pressure has eased. The total open interest in the futures market fell from $57 B to $37 B, a decrease of about 35%, indicating a significant decrease in speculative activities.
These data indicate that market liquidity has tightened recently and activity has decreased in the short term, but this stage may provide a basis for the subsequent accumulation and recovery of the market.
Market Hotspots
The Feds dovish signals helped the market stabilize, and stocks and bonds rebounded
At the interest rate meeting on March 19, the Federal Reserve made a decision in line with market expectations, keeping the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve hinted that it plans to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in 2025, and announced that it would adjust the speed of bond reduction and lower the upper limit of U.S. debt reduction from $25 billion per month to $5 billion.
Fed Chairman Powell said that economic growth expectations have been lowered and emphasized the impact of tariff policies on inflation. Despite the structural problems in the economy, the Feds dovish stance has provided support to the market and pushed the stock market back up. Last week, the US dollar index rose by 0.25%, while the Nasdaq, SP 500 and Dow Jones rose by 0.17%, 0.51% and 1.2% respectively. At the same time, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields fell by 1.59% and 1.39% respectively, falling to 3.9670% and 4.2580%.
The SEC statement confirms that PoW mining is not regulated by securities laws, providing a legal basis for the approval of PoW token ETFs
On March 20, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a statement clarifying that cryptocurrency mining activities based on the proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism do not constitute securities issuance and do not need to be registered in accordance with the Securities Act. This statement reduces the legal uncertainty of PoW tokens (such as Litecoin) and may pave the way for the approval of future PoW cryptocurrency ETFs (such as Litecoin ETF).
Trump promises to make the US a BTC superpower
On March 20, US President Trump said at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit that he plans to make the United States a BTC superpower and end the previous governments regulatory restrictions on cryptocurrencies. He called on Congress to pass legislation to establish rules for stablecoins and market structures to promote innovation and investment. At the same time, Trump mentioned that he would enhance the United States global leadership in the crypto field through initiatives such as the White House Digital Asset Summit and the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve.
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