Editors Note: Last week, OdailyInterviewed Tokenview, an all-currency blockchain browser. The initiator Shi Jin talked with me that when the data on the chain accumulates to a certain level, the correlation between multiple indicators and digital currency prices begins to appear, and some conclusions can not only be sent to trading institutions as part of data services, but also as Optimizing the nourishment of models and strategies also helps individual traders better understand the overall situation of the market. This week, we invited the background data of Tokenview, taking the transaction and user data of the three major public chains in the past year as a sample, and using two mainstream valuation theories, we made some interesting discoveries.
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BTC price is still less than half of what it was last year today
In the first quarter of last year, the price of BTC fell from $17,000 to below $10,000. Today, the price of BTC is still hovering around $4,000. The mainstream currencies such as ETH and EOS, which were unlimited in 2018, also fell with BTC.
Although the market is bleak, judging from on-chain indicators and valuations, this winter is not as cold as we thought.
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Basic Data and Trends
1. Basic indicators of transactions - the number and quantity of transactions
In the past year, BTC, ETH and EOSThe number and amount of transactions on the chain showed a steady and slight growth as a whole, which is in stark contrast to the transaction market: Although the price has dropped significantly, the transaction activity on the chain has not been hit hard.
This is undoubtedly a very good signal. The transaction remains active, which means that the three major public chains are still developing steadily. As long as it is still developing, it is a matter of time before the price rebounds.
Specifically, among the three major public chains, the growth trend of the number of transactions and quantitative indicators of BTC is the most obvious:
The growth trend of the two indicators of ETH is not obvious, but basically remains stable:
The least obvious one is EOS, but compared with the drop in price and the fading popularity, the basic trading indicators of EOS are still stable:
2. User base indicators - new and active addresses
If you simply compare addresses to users, you can see the activity and growth of users in the three public chain ecosystems through the two indicators of new and active addresses.
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BTC
ETH
EOS
Prices and Valuations
In the basic data section, we reviewed the overall trends of BTC, ETH and EOS in the past year, and then we will look at the valuation levels of the three public chains in detail.
The valuation can reflect the theoretical price position of the three public chains to a certain extent. If the market price (that is, the price we see when buying and selling on the exchange) is higher than the theoretical price, it means that the current currency price is in an overvalued position and there will be a subsequent decline The possibility; otherwise, it is an underestimation of the position, and there is a possibility of growth in the future.
We choose two valuation theories: NVT model based on network value, and PMR model based on Metcalfe theory.
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BTC
ETH
EOS
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BTC
ETH
EOS
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Trading Opportunities and Benefits
Although it is possible to judge when is a reasonable time to enter the market from fundamentals and valuations, it is still a problem that plagues investors at what price to buy and when to sell.
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EOS: Net worth comparison of long VS long+short
From the comparison of the net worth results, it can be seen that the overall return of the long + short investment method is greater than that of only long, which is very obvious in BTC and ETH. Throughout the whole year, the fourth quarter generated the most trading opportunities, which is very prominent on EOS, and the net worth curve ushered in a sharp increase in December.
Generally speaking, although the overall cryptocurrency market has shown a downward trend throughout the year and lost a lot of heat in the past year, this is not a bad thing. Only by getting rid of impetuousness can the publics attention return to technology and value itself. And people who really love this industry have never left even though they have experienced great storms.
A qualified investor should always bear in mind that trading is risky, investment needs to be cautious. Cryptocurrency is a high-risk market. In addition to the market, we need to pay more attention to fundamental data such as basic indicators and valuations, as well as other information that can help us make rational decisions.
Editors note: The price of digital currency is also affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand (mining difficulty, circulation scenarios, etc.), policy situation, new/active users, price manipulation, and hacker attacks. In order to clearly present the weekly events and data performance that have the greatest impact on BTC, ETH, and EOS, Odaily publishes the Three Major Currency Weekly Reports every Monday. WelcomeDownload APP, to obtain comprehensive information in a timely manner.
