Source: NFTGo Research
Key Points
The floor price fluctuates in the middle of the month, and the floor price at the end of the month is the same as the end of the previous month, and the trading trend is influenced by whale trading.
The market value contraction and decreased trading volume of BAYC are strongly correlated with the total NFT market value, but also highlight its market leadership position.
The increase in the total number of holders indicates BAYC's attractiveness as a long-term investment in the market consolidation process.
The amount of ETH borrowed by BAYC demonstrates its strong market performance, and different behaviors in the Yuga Labs ecosystem - MAYC holders seeking liquidity and BAYC holders pursuing long-term value - highlight the unique community culture.
Although there was a surge in activity during the launch of HV-MTL Forge, the complexity of the game may hinder future player participation. The floor price of LoTM has risen, but user acquisition and trading volume have declined.
Boredgentleman.eth believes that Crypto + NFTs + AI = Metaverse will bring the next market hotspot.
In this report, we will explore multiple dimensions of data in the Yuga ecosystem, including news and upcoming events from Yuga Labs, data analysis of BAYC and ApeCoin, holder trends, highest sales, lending situations, and game economy.
In this report, we have invited @boredgentleman, the holder of Bored Ape #2069 and a long-term NFT trader. He will provide some insider insights on various topics throughout the report. Let's start with the news section!
News and Upcoming Events
FuckItSaturday: BAYC announced that on August 26, 2023, it will celebrate the two-year anniversary of MAYC in Miami, Florida. Tickets have been announced.
10 KTF Battle.town Season 2: Season 2 of Battle.town went live on July 14. This season introduces a series of community-wide sieges and new features for more effective gameplay. The platform now supports running on iOS and Android devices and includes a Loadout Optimizer for strategic planning.
Global Community Events: Yuga Labs is planning to hold speeches and community events worldwide, starting with Tokyo. The method of obtaining ApeFest Hong Kong tickets has been announced: BAYC and MAYC holders can enter for free with a refundable deposit. Tickets will be provided on a first-come, first-served basis. Details of events in South Korea and Singapore will be provided later. The event will also offer virtual participation and host events organized by the global community.
Made by Apes Platform: Yuga Labs and SaaSy Labs Collaboration, launched on July 25th a platform created by Apes, which allows BAYC and MAYC holders to use the "Made by Apes" logo in their Apes projects. The platform will maintain a valid license and a directory of projects. We interviewed @Boredgentleman, who said: "Made by Apes is a great platform where people can not only see how their IP is being used but also provides us with an opportunity to showcase our ongoing projects to a wider audience."
CryptoPunks Archiving Book: Yuga Labs will collaborate with @zakgroup to publish the first book dedicated to archiving CryptoPunks in the fall of 2023. This book will capture untold collection stories from the community.
Data Overview
Floor Price: BAYC floor price stability & whale trading activity impacting market dynamics
The floor price shows a 11.53% retracement to 29.49 ETH this month, although it reached a peak of 35.28 ETH within this month, the floor price at the end of the month remains the same as the previous month. Overall, the market tends to be stable with no major fluctuations.
Bored Ape Yacht Club's floor price and whale transactions, data source: NFTGo.io
The fluctuation of the floor price in the early part of this month was caused by whales buying at lower floor prices and selling at the peak on July 7th. This trend gradually transformed into a slow decline in prices, prompting whales to strategically buy more. It is worth noting that Machi accounted for 80% of whale transactions, which had a significant impact on the overall market performance.
Bored Ape Yacht Club's regular and whale transactions, data source: NFTGo.io
In fact, whale activity seems to have a greater impact on the dynamics of the market than the floor price has on regular traders. The price surge triggered by whale transactions on July 8th also stimulated minor peaks for regular buyers and sellers, showing a chain reaction in the broader market. In addition, the increase in whale activity appears to have sparked higher trading frequencies among regular users. This indicates a symbiotic relationship, where whale trading patterns can bring excitement to the market and indirectly boost overall trading activity. Therefore, although whales may drive significant market fluctuations, they also play a crucial role in activating regular buyers and sellers.
Market Cap and Trading Volume: BAYC's market cap contracts and has a strong impact on the overall NFT market
Although the market value of Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) continues to shrink, the significant 75% decrease in trading volume in July indicates a cautious attitude among holders towards the price trend of BAYC. We will analyze this trend based on the behavior of holders. The market value at the end of the month remains the same as in October 2021. However, the current community culture is significantly more cohesive and self-sustaining than before. We remain optimistic about the future progress of BAYC driven by the continued growth of Yuga Labs.
Total Market Value and Trading Volume of Bored Ape Yacht Club, Data Source: NFTGo.io
Interestingly, there is a strong correlation between the market value of BAYC and the total NFT market value, highlighting BAYC's market leadership position that is unmatched by other NFT collections. This connection also implies that the trend of BAYC can be inferred from broader market conditions, providing valuable insights for strategic positioning.
Total Market Value and Trading Volume of the NFT Market, Data Source: NFTGo.io
Transactions and Liquidity: Transfers Exceed Sales & Buyers Exceed Sellers
From a liquidity perspective, we observe that the number of NFT Transfer transactions significantly exceeds the number of Buy/Sell transactions. In BAYC trading, the number of buyers slightly exceeds the number of sellers, and the total number of holders has also seen a slight increase. This implies that the market is consolidating and building momentum for possible future dynamics.
Despite a decrease in market value, Yuga Labs continues to attract some investors and NFT enthusiasts. This endurance demonstrates the intrinsic appeal of BAYC and its resilience in volatile markets, highlighting the feasibility of BAYC as a long-term investment.
Holders: BAYC maintains appeal and attracts new holders
The predominant position of long-term holders characterizes the gradual yet stable growth of BAYC's holding pattern. In contrast, the number of NFTs held for less than 24 hours plummeted from 263 to 24 within a month. On the other hand, the number of BAYC held for one month increased by approximately 200. This confirms our observation that BAYCs purchased at the monthly minimum floor price are being retained instead of being re-sold during the price recovery period.
Holders seem to anticipate further price appreciation. By the end of the month, 46% of BAYC has been held for over a year, and only around 50 BAYC have re-entered the market. This trend indicates strong investor confidence in BAYC and a strong willingness to hold BAYC in the long term, further reinforcing its value potential.
boredgentleman.eth is also one of the long-term holders. Regarding his investment approach, he says, "Let me clarify that I am more of a long-term trader rather than a day trader. I am looking for projects with really good ideas, teams composed of people who have been in this field for a while, and who know how to communicate everything to the public in a way that generates hype. So yes, I will buy into or mint a project and then wait a few months to make a profit."
The number of holders remains relatively stable, although there has been a slight decline in the number of investment addresses holding more than 5 BAYC. This suggests that these addresses, potentially arbitrageurs, may be selling some NFTs when the prices rebound. However, the significant increase in the number of holders with 1 BAYC, reaching nearly 100, has brought a new dynamism to the community.
Highest Sales: Decrease in high-value BAYC transactions indicates a less liquid market
In the past month, BAYC #1734 recorded the highest sale price at 600 ETH. It is worth noting that only four BAYCs have prices exceeding 100 ETH, which is a significant contrast to two months ago when more than 10 BAYCs were sold above this price threshold. It is also noteworthy that the holder 0x 66666 F made a second purchase of BAYC at a price exceeding 100 ETH, the first time being on May 16th at a price of 530 ETH.
This change highlights a market with lower liquidity and reduced price fluctuations. In other words, high-value transactions are becoming less frequent, indicating that investors may be more cautious in the current market environment or taking a wait-and-see approach. This trend underscores the importance of continuously monitoring the market to assess changing investor behavior and market sentiment.
Lending Situation: MAYC holders seeking liquidity & BAYC holders pursuing long-term value
Data from @paliatzis reveals interesting insights into the lending protocols on Blend for the Yuga Labs ecosystem. Although BAYC does not dominate in terms of market share, it demonstrates a strong influence in terms of the amount of ETH borrowed, highlighting its significance in the market. Within the Yuga Labs ecosystem, the amount of ETH borrowed for MAYC exceeds that of BAYC, indicating different cultures within the same ecosystem.
It seems that MAYC holders are more inclined to use their holdings to obtain liquidity, while BAYC holders view their holdings as long-term investments. The difference in behavior patterns emphasizes the unique identities within the community, with MAYC holders focusing on immediate liquidity benefits, while BAYC holders prioritize long-term value appreciation.
In summary, according to @sealaunch's data, Yuga Labs' collections on Blur experienced a roughly 50% decrease in trading volume in July, but they still account for approximately 30% of the total market volume, serving as a key pillar of market liquidity. While the trading volume has decreased, the proportion remains relatively stable, indicating that the trading activity of these collections is consistent with broader market movements and has not been affected by community behavior or sentiment.
Therefore, for holders, Yuga Labs' series aligns with overall market trends, and BAYC itself does not have significant drawbacks. This resilience in the face of market fluctuations highlights the strength of BAYC and reinforces its position as a powerful and reliable asset in the NFT space.
Apecoin: $APE price sees a slight rebound, holder count continues to rise
Currently, the price of APE is 2.35. Despite a recovery from levels below 2 in early July, community confidence remains fragile. On July 14th, Apecoin's official Twitter account released the report for APE's first quarter of 2023. However, data for 2022 predominated, and the lack of timely updated fresh data unfortunately triggered negative sentiment among community members. However, we still see an ongoing increase in the number of token holders.
Gaming Economy and NFTs
On June 29th, Yuga Labs launched HV-MTL Forge, a game that combines casual world-building and pet gameplay, culminating in competitive dungeon crawling. Players can level up their HV up to six times, reaching Evo 2 form.
HV-MTL Forge's Release Sparks Market Excitement & Factors of Game Complexity
Overall, the release of HV-MTL Forge brought a temporary surge in market activity and had a significant impact. This was evident in the increased trading volume around the release and a notable 20.67% growth witnessed in the base price over the past month. However, we have noticed that this impact seems to fade gradually over time.
Floor price and regular transactions of HV-MTL, data source: NFTGo.io
Boredgentleman.eth commented, "Forge is an interesting game, although it can be challenging to play. Rewards mainly appear in the form of decorations, and I'm not sure if they can be used now. Therefore, my strategy revolves around accumulating as much energy in the game to compete in 'The Riff'."
Trading volume, liquidity, and holders of HV-MTL, data source: NFTGo.io
From here, we can infer that the inherent complexity of the game may increase the entry barrier and hinder the progress of subsequent players. This hypothesis is confirmed from the perspectives of trading, liquidity, and holders. The significant decrease in these data points indicates that the game may not be attractive to future players. This highlights the need to consider reward mechanisms to promote increased participation and sustained impact.
Otherside Vessels: LoTM price increase & user acquisition and trading volume decline
LoTM, another game by Yuga Labs, underwent an update last month and held an offline gathering. Despite the 20.51% increase in the base price, there was a slight decline in user acquisition and trading volume.
Floor price and regular trading of Otherside Vessels, data source: NFTGo.io
On one hand, many other series collections have also joined LoTM, which is a positive sign for PFPs becoming more functional. On the other hand, the offline event specially organized for the group of 40 Voyagers in LA to enhance the participation atmosphere of Otherside did not succeed in attracting a broader player base.
Trading volume, liquidity, and holders of Otherside Vessels, data source: NFTGo.io
However, we still see the strong confidence of Ape holders. In our interview, boredgentleman said: "I don't think this particular game has had any impact on the overall positivity of the community, but it is a clear sign that Yuga Labs wants to deliver on their promises. And they will." Despite the current shortcomings, this sentiment underscores the community's trust in the game being developed by Yuga Labs.
Summary
The NFT market remains weak in July, with a market sentiment index of 17, indicating continued pessimism. Many traders have suffered losses as prices continue to decline from last year's bubble peak. However, there are some encouraging signs emerging. Blue-chip NFTs, represented by the Bored Ape Yacht Club collection, have rebounded from their lows earlier this summer. This may herald a bottoming process and potential recovery for top-tier NFT projects.
Boredgentleman.eth provided a forward-looking perspective, "Yes, unfortunately, there is little interest in NFTs right now, and the market reflects that digitally. My mind is on the Metaverse, others really can't bring their attention back to this space. Crypto + NFTs + AI = Metaverse. It's going to be crazy."
Overall, while the current landscape may present challenges, many investors continue to exhibit enduring confidence in the long-term value of the Metaverse and meticulously crafted NFT projects. Their focus remains firmly on the long-term potential of transformative technologies.
