Crypto market secondary fund Metrics Ventures market observation introduction:
1. After the ETF was officially approved, Bitcoin fluctuated at a low level. The mid- to long-term bullish structure is solid, and we can still look forward to a new round of bull market. Below $40,000 is the bargain hunting zone.
2. Ethereum successfully broke through the one-and-a-half-year pressure zone and initiated a bull market technical form. Emotions are fully released and subsequent performance can be expected. $2,855 is the next target.
3. The biggest insight in 2023 is dont think too much, just follow the trend. The 2024 bull market has arrived. Pay attention to chip sentiment and continue to maintain a high degree of consistency with the market through social experiments.
The publication of this market watch is relatively late, because the author only started writing after the ETF was passed.
Before the dust settles on ETFs, even though we all know that there is a high probability that ETFs will be approved, before the results are actually obtained, market expectations are relatively confusing. Some are expected to be positive and trigger large-scale sell-offs, while others are expected to be positive and new funds will rush into the market. , there are different opinions. We don’t want to predict what the outcome will be before the ETF is actually launched, because everything is possible. We don’t want to write the report in advance and have to tear it up and rewrite it (haha). It is better to wait for the dust to settle. Respond based on the markets true reaction.
This report focuses on market trends and trading levels, and does not evaluate the significance of the adoption of ETF. It only focuses on our general analysis and judgment of the market trends in the subsequent period.
After the ETF was launched, BTC experienced a two-day trend of huge trading volume but relatively small amplitude. There was no sudden rise and fall as defined by everyone. On the contrary, ETH showed a proud positive line. This trend is not beyond expectations, but the market generally believes that the probability of occurrence is the smallest among the many previously expected scenarios. Even though we have experienced a lot of reflexivity about the encryption market, we often feel that the market finally gives this kind of situation. Was pleasantly surprised by the interesting and counter-consensus trend.
In any case, compared to the mindless guessing before the adoption of ETF, from a trading perspective, we believe that the current mid-term market trend is relatively clear, and we also have a more confident response strategy.
We often emphasize in our monthly reports that rather than predicting the rise and fall of prices, we should focus more on identifying the position of the current market cycle and the distribution of chip structure.
Regarding the current cycle position of the market, we believe that this round of market development is at a faster pace. We have now reached a position close to around September 2020, which is the stage of gathering momentum before the main rise.
From the perspective of chip distribution, since the launch of this round of BTC, the long-term main cost range of the market has been around US$30,000, while the short- and medium-term costs have risen to around US$39,000-40,000. It is clearly visible from the chart below that since November 21, 2022, BTC has embarked on a very clear long-term rising parallel channel that lasts more than one year. This parallel channel has a larger amplitude but a slower slope, which means that in the past one Since the beginning of the year, the chip structure of BTC has been very stable, and the long trend of main funds has been very determined, thus forming a long-term upward trend that is far stronger than that in 2019-2020. Of course, the reason for such a determined trend is also related to the strongest expectations for the ETF to pass.
As for the market’s general expectation that the ETF may skyrocket or plummet after its approval, the reason why I dare not predict it in advance is:
Even without the interference of ETF, the price of BTC has reached the US$48,000 level. This is not only the upper track of the long-term upward trend, but also the intensive trading area from April 21 to April 22. The two resistances intersect, even if there is a huge Although it is a good thing, it is also very difficult to rush directly. At the same time, for a channel with long-term wide fluctuations like this, without sufficient preparation (up to several months), the breakthrough is usually a false breakthrough, and there is a high probability that it will be a false breakthrough. It will be pulled back to around the middle track of the channel (current price is around $40,600). We saw that after the ETF started trading, the BTC price briefly surged to $48,000 and broke through the upper track, but was quickly pushed back to this trading range by intense selling pressure. , it is because of this distribution of chips.
On the contrary, I dare not predict a sharp decline, also because in early January, the market violently cleaned up the leverage, causing contract rates, lending rates, positions and other emotional indicators to quickly fall back to negative values, completing the emotional adjustment before the big benefits came to fruition. The temperature has dropped, and the large-scale liquidation of long positions has reduced fuel, which also greatly reduces the possibility of a sharp decline.
Now that the biggest stone has fallen, it is even more important to predict and respond to future trends. I still emphasize that the bull trend from the end of 2022 to the present has proven to be very strong, and even if the good news comes true, it will not change this. The bull market trend is undoubtedly and will continue.
From the perspective of chip distribution, the first-line resistance of US$48,000 is relatively large, and profit margins are abundant. A shock callback is reasonable. The psychological premise for dealing with shocks or callbacks is that a shock callback in the next one or two months will be the market entry point. The final preparations before the main rise are similar to the rest period of DeFis emotional collapse after September 2020. There is no need to panic.
As for the pullback trend, it may be out of the convergence triangle according to the yellow curve in the picture above, or it may be a retracement to the middle rail of the large parallel channel (green dotted line), with the price around 38,000-40,000 US dollars, no matter which trend it takes. , as long as the BTC price runs close to the weekly MA 30, it will be the best buying point. Once BTC breaks through 48,000-49,000 US dollars, there will be no significant resistance below the historical high of 67,000 US dollars, which will be the starting point of all momentum. This time point currently seems to have to wait until after the halving. Moreover.
Now that ETH has gained momentum, let me write it out here separately. The long-term cost-intensive area of ETH is around US$2,140, which was the super market formed in June 21, January 22, and April 23. The long-term cost-intensive zone was broken through in mid-December 2023, which meant that the ETH bull market had already started at that time. This was a breakthrough close to the resistance of one year and seven months, which is enough to consider It is the time window to launch a comprehensive bull market.
In August 2020, ETH also broke through a year-and-a-half-long high, directly starting a bull market from a price of $385. However, in the following October, it encountered an adjustment of DeFi emotional collapse. The current historical cycle of ETH and the position of BTC are basically close, and there is no obvious misalignment.
Since ETH has launched a full-scale bull market in December 2023, there is only one reason why it continues to collapse in the next month. From the picture below, we can also find that the selling pressure at the 2450 line is very serious and needs to continue to fluctuate. Digestion. At the same time, the market also said that Celsius was selling coins, but I don’t care who sold ETH and how much ETH was sold. The market trend will naturally answer this question. After a month of precipitation and digestion, ETH finally broke through to a new high on January 10.
I think that even without the BTC ETF landing or anything happening, ETH would have gone through a breakthrough trend on its own. However, the ETF landing has allowed funds to quickly drive ETHs breakthrough, which is also a good opportunity. Therefore, this ETH breakthrough is very It is really strong. No matter whether it goes up or down in the future, it is very likely that ETH will be hard to see below $2,450.
In August 2020, ETH also broke through a year-and-a-half-long high, directly starting a bull market from a price of $385. However, in the following October, it encountered an adjustment of DeFi emotional collapse. The current historical cycle of ETH and the position of BTC are basically close, and there is no obvious misalignment.
Since ETH has launched a full-scale bull market in December 2023, there is only one reason why it continues to collapse in the next month. From the picture below, we can also find that the selling pressure at the 2450 line is very serious and needs to continue to fluctuate. Digestion. At the same time, the market also said that Celsius was selling coins, but I don’t care who sold ETH and how much ETH was sold. The market trend will naturally answer this question. After a month of precipitation and digestion, ETH finally broke through to a new high on January 10.
I think that even without the BTC ETF landing or anything happening, ETH would have gone through a breakthrough trend on its own. However, the ETF landing has allowed funds to quickly drive ETHs breakthrough, which is also a good opportunity. Therefore, this ETH breakthrough is very It is really strong. No matter whether it goes up or down in the future, it is very likely that ETH will be hard to see below $2,450.
about Us
Metrics Ventures is a data and research-driven crypto asset secondary market liquidity fund led by a team of experienced crypto professionals. The team has expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, and plays an active role in industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC cooperates with senior influential figures in the encryption community to provide long-term enabling capabilities for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, economic model consulting capabilities, etc.
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