*The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Market summary:
On April 26, a series of economic data released by the United States continued to indicate the risk of continued inflation, and the market generally expected that the interest rate cut in 2024 would be postponed to the fourth quarter. As a result, the US dollar index rebounded sharply. Naturally, Bitcoin, which is strongly negatively correlated with the US dollar, fell rapidly within 2 days.
Last week, after falling below the 60,000 mark, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to 67,000 US dollars, but it finally fell back to 62,000 US dollars after holding on for a week. So far, BTC has been fluctuating between 60,000 and 70,000 for nearly 8 weeks since it created a record high on March 13. Historically, each halving will trigger a bull market, but because it reached a record high before the halving, this unprecedented trend may temporarily exhaust the buyers power, and the market needs to continue to consolidate and wait for sufficient chips to be exchanged.
60,000 US dollars is already the average hosting price of mainstream mining machines in the United States, and it is only one step away from triggering passive liquidation of miners. Or simply make a big clearing in the strong support area of 55,000-60,000. As we said last week, the 55,000-60,000 range is the mining cost price of miners, the average cost price of ETFs, and the short-term break-even point. These three will constitute a strong support area, but if the market fails to launch an upward trend, this range may also see large-scale surrender, which will lead to stampede behavior and may break through the support level.
Of course, if you look at todays market from the perspective of one year later, you will most likely say that this is the last adjustment, the last drop or the last clearance of this bull market.
Since 2023, 8 weeks has tended to be a median time for consolidation. Now may be the time for the market to make a choice.
Supply and demand structure:
The profit of short-term investors in the market once approached 4%, and is currently around 6%. Further observation shows that short-term investors are selling at a loss overall, which has been a sign of a phased bottom in the past two years. The short-term profit and loss indicator will only show a -10% phenomenon in an extreme bear market. From this perspective, even if the market chooses to fall, the decline will be limited.
The total outflow of funds from US ETFs last week was $320 million, an increase from the outflow of $200 million in the previous week. Overall, the outflow trend remained moderate, but not significantly amplified.
The market may underestimate the impact of the Hong Kong BTC and ETH spot ETFs that will be officially launched tomorrow. Hong Kong innovatively supports physical subscriptions for BTC and ETH, which actually opens up the channel between virtual currencies and legal currencies, and may trigger global BTC and ETH holders to gradually flock to Hong Kong, making it a global crypto center that can truly compete with the United States.
Last week, stablecoin inflows slowed significantly to only $400 million, a significant drop from the $4 billion the week before. Whether this trend will continue remains to be seen.
As of April 28, the number of coins held by centralized exchanges was 2.32 million, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week. The increase was not large, but it also showed a trend of moderate growth in supply. At the same time, the amount of coins bought by exchanges also fell from $5.6 billion last week to $3.6 billion.
Overall, the market is in a wait-and-see mood, and the pace of new capital inflows has slowed down significantly. This is the result of the dual effects of macroeconomic uncertainty and the accumulation of huge gains in the previous period.
EMC BTC Cycle indicator:
The EMC BTC Cycle indicator shows that we are in the early stages of the bull market acceleration period (indicator strength 0.75, last week was 0.75, full strength is 1).
EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
