Last week, BTC retreated significantly and fluctuated under pressure. On January 7, the price of BTC rebounded to $102,724.38 and then fell under pressure. As the US dollar index rose strongly, global asset liquidity fluctuated, and crypto assets led by BTC fluctuated significantly. Among them, the price of BTC fell to $89,256.69 on January 13. Currently, the price of BTC has recovered to around $94,915. On January 13, the price of ETH also fell below the $3,000 support level to $2,920, and the current price fluctuates around $3180 (the above data comes from Binance spot, January 14 15:00).
The three major US stock indexes rose and fell. As of the close of January 13, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.86%, the SP 500 rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.38%. Spot ETFs have seen capital outflows on seven of the past 12 trading days, with $718 million outflows in just two days, in stark contrast to the nearly $2 billion inflows in early January.
Macro Interpretation
Non-farm data exceeded expectations, the Fed may suspend the interest rate cut cycle
On January 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the December non-farm payrolls report, which significantly exceeded expectations. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls were 256,000, 212,000 ahead of the previous value and far exceeding the expected 160,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the previous value of 4.2% and also lower than the expected value of 4.2%.
Data shows that the job market continues to grow strongly. The high interest rate environment has not significantly suppressed economic growth, and the market generally expects the Fed to shift its policy focus to curbing inflation. Currently, CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to 6.4%. Investment banks have lowered their expectations for rate cuts in 2025. Bank of America even believes that there is no hope for a rate cut throughout the year, and may raise interest rates again in the first half of the year to cope with the pressure of rising inflation.
Against this backdrop, the market is mixed. The US dollar index rose strongly to 109.65, approaching 110, and London gold rose to $2689.88/ounce. The one-year and ten-year US Treasury yields fell to 4.223% and 4.762% respectively. The major US stock indexes continued the adjustment trend since December 18 last week, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones and SP 500 falling by 2.34%, 1.86% and 1.94% respectively. Trumps policies after taking office on January 20 have become the focus of the market, but the market generally believes that the short-term trend of US stocks may fluctuate. Although the trading environment in the first half of the year is complicated, it still has upward potential in the long run.
The Federal Reserve will release several important economic data this week, and the market is watching the inflation level
The non-farm payrolls data far exceeded expectations, causing the market to lower its expectations for interest rate cuts. The tariff policy that may be restored during the Trump era has further exacerbated inflation concerns. As a result, US stocks fell sharply, and the crypto market was also under significant pressure. The Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the number of initial jobless claims will be announced soon, and it is not ruled out that these data may bring greater volatility to the market. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in the macro environment and be cautious in dealing with potential risks and opportunities.
Market Information
Standard Chartered Bank obtains Luxembourg digital asset license to accelerate the expansion of crypto custody business
On January 9, Standard Chartered Bank, a leading global financial institution, announced that it will launch cryptocurrency services in the European Union, focusing on the custody of BTC and ETH. Standard Chartered Banks new service mainly provides storage and protection functions for digital assets and does not involve transactions. Previously, the bank launched a similar crypto custody service in the UAE in 2024.
Analysts pointed out that Standard Chartered Banks move not only reflects the growing demand for digital assets from institutional investors, but also reflects the EUs support for compliant encryption services. As its globalization strategy advances, Standard Chartered Bank is gradually consolidating its leading position in the field of digital assets and setting a benchmark for financial institutions to embrace cryptocurrencies.
Bhutan’s Mindful City announced that it would use multiple cryptocurrencies as national strategic reserves, which will provide a new path for the economic development of small countries
On January 8, the City of Mindfulness in Bhutan officially announced that it would include BTC, ETH, and BNB in its asset reserves. It also took advantage of the green energy advantage of hydropower to carry out large-scale BTC mining activities. It currently holds more than 11,000 BTC, worth about $1.1 billion, ranking among the top five BTC reserves in the world. Bhutans model may inspire other countries with rich energy resources to use idle energy for mining and accumulate digital asset reserves.
Nigeria strengthens crypto license supervision, speeding up market compliance
The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently warned that some virtual asset service providers (VASPs) will face the risk of having their license applications rejected due to failure to meet regulatory requirements. Since the launch of the Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Program (ARIP) in 2024, companies including Busha Digital and Quidax Technologies have been granted operating licenses, indicating that Nigeria is accelerating the establishment of a compliance framework for the crypto market.
SEC Director General Emotimi Agama said the new regulations have entered the presidential approval stage and are expected to promote stricter market monitoring and education, helping Nigeria transform from one of the worlds largest crypto markets to a regulatory benchmark.
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