*The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. 
Market summary:
Although we regard BTC as the ultimate safe-haven asset of supranationalism, we must admit that it is still in the stage of risky assets, especially directly affected by the macroeconomic policy of the US dollar. Last week, the relatively mild speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell caused BTC to rebound to $63,000. But a few days later, it fell to the $60,000 mark because another member of the Federal Reserve emphasized the 2% inflation rate bottom line.
The 5% swing up and down, along with the sharply lower volume compared to March, suggests the market is in a boring phase.
We have detected net outflows of USD stablecoins for the first time since the end of October last year. US ETFs have also temporarily shrunk significantly, with both net outflows and net inflows shrinking significantly compared to March and April.
As we said before, once it hits $60,000, it reaches the strong support zone of $55,000-60,000, which is the mining cost price of miners, the average cost price of ETFs and the short-term break-even point. Because of the weak breakthrough and the lack of good news on the macro level, this support zone has reversed into a stampede zone, which in turn has an increasing probability of the market penetrating to $55,000.
For investors who lamented in March that BTC rose too fast and they were unable to get on board, this is a very subtle test: if the current price drops another 10%, the market will provide a good window for entry, so will you take this opportunity to enter?
Market sentiment tends to always chase ups and downs, and fear accumulates in long-term weak consolidation. If you can see that things in the next two years have high certainty, then this may be an opportunity worth considering. First, the interest rate cut has been postponed, but stagflation has also begun to appear, and the recession seems to have arrived, which is the strongest motivation for the interest rate cut; second, the US election is often a catalyst for market boost; third, the first three halving effects of BTC (a big bull market within 18 months after the halving) have not yet been reflected.
Supply and demand structure:
On average, the on-chain profit margin of BTC investors is about 1.1 times; this figure reached 1.7 times in March; short-term investors investments have declined from a profit of 40% to 1%, and losses are only a 5-minute K-line away.
We must emphasize that in the past two years, short-term investors losses are a sign of a stage bottom. The short-hand profit and loss indicator will only show a -10% phenomenon in an extreme bear market (at the end of 22 years).
US ETF funds reversed the sharp outflow of the previous week, with a net inflow of $117 million last week, up from a net outflow of $434 million the previous week. However, we expect that this week may return to the track of slight net outflows.
Last week, stablecoins outflowed $460 million, the first significant outflow since the end of October last year. Of course, this is only the first net outflow since the stagnation of stablecoin net inflows since April 20, and whether it will continue remains to be seen. Compared with the cumulative net inflow of $15 billion in March and April, this is only a weak signal.
As of April 28, the number of coins held by centralized exchanges was 2.333 million, 3,000 less than last week. Overall, the change in the stock of BTC in exchanges has been low in the past month. The purchase volume of exchanges also increased slightly from US$5 billion last week to US$7.1 billion.
Overall, the market is in a wait-and-see mood, the pace of new capital inflows has slowed significantly, and the market is in a fragile balance.
EMC BTC Cycle indicator:
Due to the decline in BTC new addresses, vitality index, exchange liquidity and other indicators, the EMC BTC Cycle engine shows that there is a temporary gap in our bull market acceleration period, and the overall indicator has dropped from 0.75 to 0.37.
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