Original author: Shang2046
The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
BTC chips continue to accumulate between 66,000 and 70,000. A market breakthrough may only require a clear expectation of a rate cut.
Market Week
Last week, BTC once approached its all-time high of $73,000, reaching a high of $71,974. It ended with a rapid adjustment from the high point, closing at more than $69,000. The whole weeks amplitude was only 6.5%, and the increase was 2.8%.
The failure to reach a high is still closely related to the US economic data. The US non-farm data released on June 8 showed an unexpected increase in employment, which added more uncertainty to the expectation of interest rate cuts. However, it must be pointed out that the US unemployment rate also unexpectedly increased, showing that the signal of US economic recession is still clear. There are also reports that most of the new jobs in the United States are taken by immigrants and illegal immigrants, and the actual data in the United States is not optimistic.
In any case, the market is still waiting for the biggest shoe to fall. The Federal Reserves interest rate meeting on June 12 will give further signals. We believe that the probability of a rate cut before September is still very high.
Before that, the crypto market may react 1-2 months in advance. On June 4, the US Fidelity ETF, which has always ranked second in terms of capital inflow, received $800 million in a single day, which also indirectly hinted at some intentions of mainstream US institutions.
Supply and demand structure
Last week, we pointed out that through on-chain data, the range of $60,000 to $73,000 has become the largest accumulation range of BTC chips, with a total of about 3 million chips. At present, this accumulation range has been further clarified as $66,000 to $70,000. In this range, 2.43 million chips have accumulated. This range can be regarded as a strong support position.
On June 4, the US ETF had a single-day net inflow of $887 million, setting the second largest single-day net inflow record since the ETF was approved in January; last week, the US ETF had an overall net inflow of $1.829 billion, which was also the largest net inflow week since March. The Hong Kong BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about $42 million last week, and the total amount remained at $290 million, which was similar to the scale at the end of April.
In terms of the inflow of US dollar stablecoins, it continued to be relatively stable in the past month, with a net inflow of 270 million US dollars. It is still far from the ultra-high net inflows in March and April. Overall, the current stock of stablecoins is 150.5 billion US dollars, which is not far from the 162 billion US dollars in the last bull market. If the net inflow of about 15 billion US dollars of US ETFs is taken into account, it has surpassed the last bull market as a whole.
However, for this bull market to achieve a real breakthrough, stablecoins need to increase further.
As of May 26, the number of coins held by centralized exchanges was 2.31 million, 20,000 less than last week. At the same time, short-term investors who held positions for less than 5 months held 3.32 million coins, 10,000 more than last week, while long-term investors who held positions for more than 5 months held 14.1 million coins, an increase of 14,000 coins. Overall, the market showed a continuous accumulation of chips, and short-term and long-term investors moved in the same direction.
In terms of market costs, the cost of short-term investors further increased to $63,500, with a floating profit of about 9%. This profit is at a relatively low level in the bull market, and short-term selling pressure is very limited. On the other hand, the average holding cost of US spot ETFs also rose slightly to $58,287, with a profit margin of about 19%.
In terms of buying volume on centralized exchanges, it increased from $3.6 billion last week to $5.6 billion.
EMC BTC Cycle indicator
The eMerge data engine shows that the market is in a period of accelerated bull market, and the EMC BTC Cycle indicator strength is 0.63.
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