On October 10, BTC fell below the $60,000 mark in the U.S. trading session. A single long order of $10 million was liquidated, and then it began to rise unilaterally, with the highest increase reaching 15.83%. The intensity of this unilateral rise was extremely unexpected, and it rose rapidly without any pullback.
The macro environment seems to have not changed significantly in the past few days. Traders have not made any significant adjustments to their pricing of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in November. The performance of U.S. stocks and gold has also been rising relatively steadily. What factors have led to such a strong trend in BTC? Is this an independent market for BTC, or is the liquidity of the Federal Reserves interest rate cut gradually overflowing into the cryptocurrency market?
How should we view this kind of intense rise? Is it a consensus that the bull market has returned or a false breakthrough caused by a continued rise in shrinking volume? Traders in the market have their own opinions.
Technical Analysis
@CryptosLaowai
It is believed that BTC has broken through the intersection of the upper supply line and the demand line of this cycle. From the morphological point of view, this round of rising market is very similar to the market at the end of August. There was a flag pattern in the rise and then a false breakout and a downward break. From the liquidation heat map, there is not much short liquidity to be obtained upward, but there is a large amount of long liquidity to be obtained downward. At present, the average price of his short position remains at around US$65,000, and the target of downward break is set at around US$55,000. It is not believed that there will be a new market at the end of the year, and the real bull market will have to wait until 2025.
@yekoikoi
I think that from the structure from July 29 to now, BTC has been going very well, and after breaking through the demand line this time, it did not fall as smoothly as before, but instead found support in the 59,800 range. 59,800 is the 50% position of the rise from September 6 to now. From the perspective of retracement, this is a good retracement, and the daily moving average here has slowly formed a long arrangement. The Wyckoff accumulation structure has come out, and there are major players accumulating funds. From the perspective of carving a boat to seek a sword, the drop from 65,000 to 60,000 may be the position of the last demand point (LPS). The demand has always been greater than the supply, that is, buying is greater than selling. At present, we still need to wait for the confirmation of the breakthrough, and the bottom long orders are firmly held without new operations.
@Patrade_Buer
Daily level: The rising market has come out. The position of 5w9 mentioned in the October monthly report is the final entry position; continue to pay attention to the bearish OB test, whether it directly breaks through the range-H or refuses to distribute downwards and retraces; the focus of the retracing position is still 64500 and 63,000 US dollars, and the retracing position is the buying position. The focus of the spot order is still 63,000 US dollars.
Hourly level: After the upper and lower pin sucking cups on October 15, it plundered upwards again. If you want to short, to be safe, you need to pay attention to the test of H1 bullish OB. Here the entity is broken and the pullback is the opportunity to short; the market is still in an upward trend, here we first look at the plunder of IDM and then test the H1 bullish OB to buy opportunities; if it falls below the H1 bullish OB, then we expect the callback that we unanimously expected, pay attention to the plunder of 64,500 US dollars (short-term) blue range-L and then buy opportunities, and focus on the H4 bullish OB near 63,000 US dollars to buy opportunities.
@siyizhisheng 3
The current structure has been fluctuating upward since the bottom of 5 B, and the funds are accumulated! The current price of 67000 breaks through the pressure of the previous high of 66500 on the daily line and enters the secondary second channel trajectory diagram, as shown in Figure 1: The red channel is a fluctuating downward consolidation, and the white channel is the secondary second channel trajectory. It has just walked out of the new space from the red consolidation channel! In the short term, it continues to be bullish, but from the perspective of the secondary second channel, it is currently at the turning point of B, that is, the first wave of the new three-wave structure breaks away from the previous consolidation range, and the second wave rises. It is currently at the turning point of B in the secondary second channel.
From the perspective of the trading structure, 80% of the time, the B turning position will fluctuate upward and consolidate, which is similar to climbing more than accelerating! From the perspective of the trading structure, I personally think that Bitcoin needs to fluctuate widely at the B turning position, turn to a narrow range, and then change to B turning and accelerate!
Extending from the daily line to the weekly line, the weekly line is currently still in the channel-like pressure turning point area and has not broken through as shown in Figure 3: The weekly BTC is still suppressed in the triangle area, and there are only two trends in the triangle pressure area.
1. Break through the second weekly line of the pressure triangle and do consolidation.
2. Oscillating and consolidating below the pressure line, and the second one is accumulating momentum.
No matter which line you go, the overall trend is comprehensive. The short-term trend is slightly on the right side, forming a preliminary thinking! The rise is greater than the fall. Be cautious about shorting. The weekly pressure daily line B turning position, I think it is mainly accumulating momentum!
Currently, the large-scale support is raised to around 64700 and the weekly value is raised to 63000.
The daily pressure zone is 68600 and the weekly pressure line is around 71600
Macro analysis school:
@Crypto_Painter
It is believed that this round of rise may be related to the excessive premium of MSTR and its decoupling from BTC. MSTR started 2 weeks ago. There were market rumors that MSTR would be included in the QQQ index, completely decoupled from BTC, and move out of a sustained bullish trend.
Hedge funds shorting MSTR while going long BTC will narrow the premium gap between BTC and MSTR, which may bring potential gains of 20%-30% to hedge funds.
Under the current market conditions, BTC is rising rapidly and approaching a new high, while MSTR is fluctuating near a new high. For hedge funds, such arbitrage will come to an end, so BTCs short-term bullish trend may stagnate.
@Maoshu_CN
It is believed that the reason for this round of rise is that the US technology stocks are approaching the third quarter earnings report, investors are buying more calmly than before, and under the premise of a good investment environment, the economic situation is also optimistic, and the preference for risky investment has increased.
The capital sector flows, and the cryptocurrency market has once again attracted some of the overflow liquidity, with large stocks entering small stocks and large stocks entering BTC. This is enough to prove that the current market liquidity is still stretched, and the liquidity overflowed by technology stocks will gradually flow into small-cap stocks and BTC. Personally, I don’t think it has anything to do with Trump’s increased chances of winning. Those who trust Trump will always believe that he can win the election, and those who don’t trust him will still feel distrustful even if his approval rating is high now.
However, after the four major U.S. stock indexes closed higher today, BTC did not get more bullish momentum. According to the previous logic, the original overflow of liquidity in the U.S. stock market has reached a bottleneck. Next, unless the U.S. stock profit effect is upgraded again, more liquidity overflows, or there is external stimulation, BTC can usher in a breakthrough again. Tonight’s weekly initial jobless claims and September retail data may become opportunities.
In terms of funds, the market value of stablecoins on the exchange increased by 100 million US dollars, and is currently 173.2 billion US dollars: USDT: The official website data is 119.766 billion, which is unchanged compared to yesterday. Asian and European funds have temporarily stopped inflows, but the existing stock is still sufficient. The trading volume continues to increase, and the activity of Asian and European funds is good; USDC: The data website shows that the market value has increased by 153 million, and the trading volume has increased by 87.92%. It is obvious that funds in the US area have begun to flow back and actively participate in transactions. The US time has returned to its previous active state.
@Phyrex_Ni
It is believed that the short-term rise of BTC is highly correlated with the purchasing power of BTC ETF. On the trading day of October 15, there was a direct net inflow of 4,323 BTC, and the inflow of funds brought by this data was close to 300 million US dollars. The rise of BTC in recent days is linked to the financial report of BlackRock. It can be clearly seen that under the stimulation of the favorable financial report of BlackRock, the purchasing power of #BTC has been greatly improved, and there is also considerable support for the price of BTC.
Even apart from BTC, most institutions in the United States maintained positive inflows, only three institutions maintained zero, and the other nine institutions all had positive inflows with no outflows at all. Even Grayscale’s two ETFs held 635 BTC. Therefore, BlackRock’s stimulus is not only for itself. The huge amount of funds entering BlackRock has also allowed other ETF institutions to see spring.
Although the purchasing power of other currencies is not very large, it is obvious that the FOMO sentiment of users is beginning to increase. It is very likely that this is the start of Q4. After all, we have said countless times that there are too many positive factors in Q4, which is worth looking forward to. Yesterday, BTC spot ETF has already flowed into 6,035 BTC, and more funds are flowing into BTC.
Data analysis school:
@CryptoPainter_X
It has been observed that the negative premium between Coinbase BTCUSD spot and USDT has lasted for 16 days. It can be confirmed that: first, USDT has been in a negative premium state in the past 16 days, which means that some funds have flowed out of the stablecoin market; second, the Coinbase spot market has been shipping in the past 16 days; and the futures market has been very strong in buying, which is the driving force of prices. It is necessary to confirm whether there is follow-up of spot buying below. The bullish trend led by futures is rapid. It is entirely possible to quickly break through 69,000 or 70,000. If there is no follow-up of spot buying, sooner or later there will be a huge lower shadow for long liquidity liquidation.
From the perspective of the Fear and Greed Index, the Fear and Greed Index broke through 70 for the first time since July 29, reaching the greed state.
The red curve in the figure is the trend of the Fear and Greed Index over the past year. If it is regarded as an indicator similar to RSI, then every time the price closes at a new low but the index does not reach a new low, it can be regarded as a divergence. This seems to be a way to judge the top and bottom.
The previous price of 52,000 closed at a new low, but the index did not, indicating a bottom; similarly, if the current price cannot break through 7w for a long time, but the index reaches a new high; then it may also indicate some kind of top signal.
@Xbt 886
Observing that the comparison range has been broken, I will push the anchor point of VP to the low point of 7-5 days.
Combined with the VP from March 6 to now
think:
1.65754 is the current support. If it fails, the current uptrend will end.
2. The upper resistance is 69544, a potential target. Note the word potential
3. It is not worth trading here, wait for a breakthrough or wait for a breakout
4. VAH 70110 based on the VP for the entire six months
@biupa
Observe the current disk:
twap buy- Binance, OK - Chinese Capital
Twap sell-cb, kraken, bybit - Western Capital
CVD is downward, active selling is the majority
However, the market is going up, and some dealers are using iceberg orders to protect the market, which makes CVD unable to fall down (active sell orders are absorbed by iceberg buy orders)
If the main force is strong enough, it will continue to absorb the price above 70 and hold until retail investors return to the market, and the bull market will return;
If the main force is exhausted ahead of time, it will start to smash the market.
