In the past week, BTC began to accelerate its rise, breaking through ATHs of $9,3000 and $94,000. Although the current BTC price has fallen slightly, it is still fluctuating around $93,400, and the highest increase of BTC in 24 hours is over 4.5% (the above data comes from Binance spot, November 20, 17:00).
Currently, BTC has become the only investment category in the Trump economy that has not yet given back its gains. Due to extreme long positions and market concerns about continued rising yields, US stocks have given back some of their recent gains. Although geopolitics has heated up recently, under the leadership of Nvidias upcoming earnings report and technology stocks, US stocks closed again on November 19 with relatively flat data, with the Nasdaq and SP 500 rising slightly and the Dow Jones falling slightly.
Under this premise, Trumps personnel appointments are frequent, the pace of interest rate cuts in the United States may slow down, and the intensified geopolitical risks and the increase in market awareness of BTC appear at the same time. Driven by the Meme market, confidential FOMO sentiment has reached its peak. Investors need to pay close attention to market indicators and pay attention to controlling investment risks while capturing returns.
Market Analysis
In addition to the continued escalation of geopolitics, Trump’s personnel appointments may be an important key to the future direction of cryptocurrencies. Whether it is the subsequent appointment of the Secretary of the Treasury or the Federal Reserve, or the subsequent policies of the SEC, they all determine the fate of BTC market adoption.
As geopolitics heats up, safe-haven assets are sought after by investors
On November 19, local time, the US Department of Defense announced that it would provide Ukraine with a batch of weapons worth at least $250 million. The weapons in the aid plan include multiple rocket launcher systems, artillery shells, Javelin anti-armor ammunition and other facilities and accessories.
Affected by this information, the U.S. stock market entered a brief panic after opening, with the panic index reaching 17.93, the highest since the 5th of this month. Market analysts believe that the increasing geopolitical risks will be the risk that the market will face, and as the new president is about to take office, the presidents attitude will increase uncertainty.
Given the performance of the US economy, the Fed may adjust expectations for short-term rate cuts
On November 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that due to the strong US economy, the Fed does not need to rush to lower interest rates, and the Fed will watch carefully to ensure that certain inflation indicators remain within an acceptable range. Powell reiterated that the Feds policy interest rate path will depend on upcoming data and the evolution of the economic outlook. He said that inflation is approaching the Feds 2% target, but has not yet reached it. The Fed will pay close attention to core indicators of inflation for goods and services excluding housing, which have been declining over the past two years. We expect these indicators to continue to fluctuate in the recent range, and the road to the Feds 2% target will be bumpy at times. But we still believe that we are on the right track in terms of inflation.
The next Fed meeting will be held on December 17-18.
Who will be the US Treasury Secretary? This weeks focus
The market is paying close attention to the cabinet layout under Trumps term. At present, several key positions have been clarified, and the Treasury Secretary is highly anticipated. The current popular candidates are Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick (CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald). According to CNN information, Trump is expected to announce his Treasury Secretary candidate early on Wednesday local time.
Bessent is considered a safe card with rich experience in the capital market, but Lutnicks company is one of the custodians of Tether, so it has attracted special attention from the cryptocurrency community. The market believes that no matter who enters the cabinet, both candidates are seen as supporting cryptocurrency, and the cryptocurrency industry has the opportunity to continue to receive political support and promote the long-term development of BTC as a reserve asset.
Source: Trump team lists crypto lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén as SEC chairman candidate
According to CoinDesk, citing people familiar with the matter, the Trump transition team is considering Teresa Goody Guillén, a partner at law firm BakerHostetler and co-head of its blockchain team, as one of several candidates for the next SEC chairman. Goody Guillén is an experienced securities lawyer with experience serving the SEC and representing blockchain companies and traditional businesses against the agency.
Washington insiders say Trump is looking for a non-bureaucrat who supports cryptocurrency to overhaul the SEC. Unlike Trumps first administration, the election process for the second term was quick and orderly, and the SEC chairman is expected to be selected before Thanksgiving.
BlackRock IBIT options had a total trading volume of nearly $1.9 billion on the first day of listing, 82% of which were call options
Data monitored by Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart showed that the final statistics of the first day of BlackRock IBIT options listing showed that the nominal exposure through 354,000 contracts was slightly less than US$1.9 billion, of which 82% were call options (289,000 contracts) and 18% were put options (65,000 contracts), with a ratio of 4.4:1.
Investment advice
The current market FOMO sentiment is serious. Investors are advised to remain rational, properly allocate assets while ensuring perfect risk control, and further avoid risks while capturing returns.
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