Original title: Polymarket faces backlash over sick California wildfire markets
Original author: Protos Staff
Original translation: Ashley, BlockBeats
Editors note: The article criticizes the controversy caused by the prediction market platform Polymarket due to users speculating on the California wildfires. In the context of the wildfires that have caused many deaths and hundreds of thousands of people evacuated, users indifferently bet on the development of the disaster, and some prediction fund pools are as high as $100,000. This behavior of gambling on public disasters has aroused strong moral doubts.
The following is the original content (for easier reading and understanding, the original content has been reorganized):
Fire gambling sparks public outrage
Polymarket is currently under widespread criticism for its “disgusting” prediction market, which is taking bets on the ongoing wildfires in California.
The wildfire broke out in the Hollywood Hills on Wednesday and quickly spread across Los Angeles. So far, five deadly wildfires have caused more than 137,000 people to evacuate and five people have died.
Many Polymarket users took the opportunity to create multiple prediction markets on how the fire would spread, when it would be contained, and potential political resignations. Some markets have seen trading volumes approach $100,000.
However, many netizens are not buying into these markets and Polymarket’s promotion. One X platform user bluntly said: “Betting on wildfires is really sick.” Another user said that betting on such a tragedy “is unacceptable and shameless behavior in any case.”
Some users are more concerned that wildfire prediction markets could encourage gamblers to set fires to increase their odds of success. One user pointed out that the odds in these markets are based entirely on gamblers’ emotions, and responded to Polymarket’s post by saying, “No, there is no such thing as a ‘48% chance of it spreading,’ just that 48% of people are betting that it will happen.”
This kind of backlash is nothing new for Polymarket, which faced similar criticism last year when it allowed users to bet on whether a Titan submersible would explode, killing five passengers.
In an effort to mitigate its own liability in at least 10 different wildfire markets, Polymarket added a brief disclaimer that it uses the “wisdom of the crowd” to create “accurate and objective event forecasts.” “The devastating Pacific Palisades wildfire was one such event where Polymarket was able to provide valuable real-time answers to those directly impacted in a way that traditional media could not,” the statement said.
It’s worth noting that if you are truly impacted by a wildfire, it’s probably better to rely on news organizations that actively report on the event rather than crypto-forecasting sites.
Crypto companies close to the fire
In addition to threatening millions of California residents, the rapidly spreading wildfires also posed a serious threat to multiple crypto companies and prominent community members, many of whom have lost their homes and belongings, including valuable hardware wallets.
Employees at the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office are directly south of the Palisades and Sunset Fires. Swan Bitcoin, which hosts the Pacific Bitcoin Conference in Santa Monica, also has several employees in the southern area of the fires.
Blockchain service provider BlockDaemon is headquartered in Los Angeles, along with fellow crypto game developer SuperVerse. Blockchain-based identity and tokenization company SpringLabs is headquartered in nearby Marina del Ray.
Some companies are relatively lucky. As of now, Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles has not been affected by the fire. DaBank and Jungla, two crypto entertainment venues in Hawthorne and North Hollywood, have also not been affected by the wildfires.
