Original author: RVM
Original translation: TechFlow
In the virtual world of RuneScape, the Wilderness was once an area full of dangers and opportunities, and one of the most notorious strategies was called luring. This strategy exploits players trust and greed, luring unsuspecting players deep into the Wilderness - a high-risk player-versus-player (PVP) area - with false promises of safety or lucrative rewards.
Specifically, the trapper will disguise himself as a friendly ally, offer seemingly generous help or rewards, and carefully design a plot to lower the victims vigilance. Once the victim enters the wilderness, the disguise will be torn off, the trapper will reveal his true face, launch an ambush, plunder the victims belongings, and ultimately leave the victim with nothing.
This strategy, which takes full advantage of psychological manipulation and human weaknesses, is a classic example of the weaponization of social dynamics in early virtual environments. It reminds us that the so-called promise of safety or a guaranteed opportunity to win often hides an asymmetric trap that ultimately benefits the initiator while the participants suffer losses.
Market Status
Deep in the Wilds I @Darkfarms 1
Decentralized liquidity and ephemeral narratives
A glut of projects and blockchains
As the crypto market expands, more and more blockchains, protocols, and tokens emerge, causing traders’ attention to be dispersed. New projects emerge in an endless stream, each trying to attract capital through the “hot” narrative.
Fast liquidity rotation
Market funds move from one hot spot to another at a very fast speed. Once a narrative loses its appeal, investors will quickly turn to other opportunities. This phenomenon causes prices to rise sharply in the short term and then fall back quickly, and many traders are trapped before they can make a profit.
Key takeaway: Too many competing projects and limited funding make it difficult for any single narrative to sustain a long-term upward trend.
Overlapping interests and divided market sentiment
Interest-driven opinions (KOL)
KOLs often promote projects based on their own interests. Discussions on social media are more dominated by those who try to push up their own positions, which further exacerbates the fragmentation of market narratives.
Conflicting market signals
Market sentiment is split: although some macro indicators show a positive trend, retail investors are generally losing money and are extremely negative. This contradictory situation has exacerbated market volatility.
Key conclusion: Due to the inconsistency of interest drivers, the market has become more divided, and even once trusted voices may turn from bullish to bearish, or vice versa, at any time due to their own interests.
Bitcoin Exclusive Trading and the Illusion of Altcoin Season
Layout Bitcoin in Advance
In this round of crypto market cycle, traders who accurately grasped the rise of Bitcoin have been richly rewarded. However, many retail investors who were looking forward to the arrival of the altcoin season were caught off guard and failed to achieve their wishes.
The risks of retail investors seeking high returns
Due to the large market value of Bitcoin and limited potential gains, retail investors often choose to avoid Bitcoin and try to find the next big hit. However, many people put their money into small altcoins, only to find that the expected altcoin season has not really arrived.
Key takeaway: Bitcoin’s rally has primarily benefited experienced traders, while retail investors seeking to profit from altcoins have been disappointed by the absence of an altcoin season.
Solana vs Ethereum Meme Battle: The Dilemma of Liquidity Dilution
Meme Mania: The Rise of Pump.fun
Platforms like Pump.fun have spawned a large number of memes that have attracted the attention of retail investors. The popularity of these tokens relies more on hype and virality on social media than on any actual value support.
The Nature of Meme: Speculation or Scam?
Meme price increases usually rely on continued market attention and continuous injection of liquidity. Many investors know that this is a game of who buys faster, forming a short-term price bubble.
Ethereum: The former king of memes
In the 2021 bull market, Ethereum became the main battlefield of Meme with the NFT craze; in early 2024, Memes such as $PEPE and $MOG also performed well relative to Bitcoin, bringing rich returns to early participants. However, as the market tended to fluctuate sideways before Trumps election, most of the upward momentum was consumed. By mid-2024, there are few opportunities for easy profits in the market, and todays Meme traders are facing the following challenges:
The entry of professional players - the current meme market with a market value of billions of dollars has been dominated by experienced traders and algorithmic market makers, and the profit space for ordinary investors has been greatly reduced.
Pressure of high valuation - Memes market value is generally high, and the possibility of a significant increase in the future is very slim.
Key conclusion: Both the Solana and Ethereum ecosystems are flooded with micro-cap tokens that compete for limited funds, further diluting market liquidity. The early-stage money-making opportunities are gone, and todays market is more complex and mainly controlled by professional traders.
Hyperliquid and the pursuit of excess returns
Airdrops and speculation
Hyperliquid has attracted a large number of active traders and capital inflows with its generous airdrop policy and innovative product features. However, the influx of large amounts of capital has also spawned high-risk speculative behavior, leading to increased market volatility.
Most traders face losses
According to the PnL (profit and loss) data on the platform, most short-term traders have failed to make a profit on Hyperliquid, especially when chasing hype. Although the platform provides many innovative opportunities, frequent participation in Meme or high-risk asset trading often increases the risk of loss.
Key takeaway: Even on innovative platforms, aggressive speculation is still a zero-sum game, where one party gains while another loses. Traders frequently switch between tokens, trying to chase high returns, but these gains often quickly disappear under competition from professional players.
PVP Game: The Battle Between Retail Investors and Big Players
Disadvantages of information asymmetry
Insiders and institutional investors are often able to take the lead and even have insider information that ordinary investors cannot obtain. Retail investors usually buy in after the price has risen sharply, missing the most favorable time window.
“Shelf Effect” and Market Manipulation
The so-called “listing effect” refers to the phenomenon in which the price of a token skyrocketed after it was announced to be listed on a major exchange. This trend further exacerbates the advantage of insiders, who can buy in at low prices before the announcement, while retail investors take over at high prices.
Key conclusion: The crypto market is essentially a high-risk player-versus-player (PVP) arena. Big players take advantage of information asymmetry and advance layout to make profits, while ordinary investors often become victims.
The expansion of copycats and the impact of Trump tokens
Liquidity is diverted to new tokens
The launch of the Trump and Melania tokens is a vivid example of how new tokens can siphon remaining liquidity from an already weak market.
Retail investors become the takers
Like many token offerings driven by market frenzy, insiders reaped most of the gains during the token craze, while late retail investors were left stranded. This phenomenon further exacerbated the market’s pessimism, and many investors began to lose confidence in the market.
Key conclusion: As market liquidity gradually dries up and new tokens are launched endlessly, the losses of ordinary investors are further magnified, and the market falls into a negative cycle of no one is willing to take over.
Future market trends
Possibility of rebound
Although the altcoin market looks bleak right now, Bitcoin’s institutionalization still offers some hope. At the current price of $105,000, $BTC is still in a strong uptrend. If governments or major regulators send more signals in support of cryptocurrencies, this could reignite bullish sentiment in the market.
Be cautious about future market conditions
If market liquidity picks up and enthusiasm reappears, investors need to remain highly vigilant. The current market is still dominated by professional trading teams and insiders, competition is extremely fierce, and ordinary investors face a great disadvantage.
Short-term operations are safer
In a market characterized entirely by PVP (player vs. player), it is safer to choose a quick entry and exit strategy rather than relying on long-term trends. The days of easy profits by simply buying and holding Meme (such as early 2024) are history, at least in the current market environment.
Key conclusion: If the macro environment improves and attracts more new funds, the market may usher in a more positive atmosphere. However, investors still need to act with caution, fully realize the PVP characteristics of the current market, and avoid excessively chasing short-term hot spots.
Deep Wilderness - Caution is of the utmost importance
Final Thoughts
A notable feature of the current cryptocurrency market is the high degree of dispersion of capital and attention. This market environment, coupled with the strong influence of insiders and rapidly changing market hotspots, makes it more difficult for ordinary retail investors to gain an advantage. Although there may still be opportunities for large fluctuations in the future - especially if the macroeconomic environment is favorable to Bitcoin - investors need to focus on strategic and strict risk management when dealing with any market rebound and avoid blindly following the trend.
Practical advice:
Set reasonable expectations – the days of easy 10x returns may be over.
Diversify carefully - dont spread your funds too much across multiple popular tokens, as it will be difficult to manage risk centrally.
Staying flexible and adaptable - shortening the holding time and locking in profits in time will help you stay invincible in the highly competitive PVP market.
Choose quality projects - focus on projects that have real value or solid foundations, rather than blindly chasing market hype.
In general, the era of everyone can make money is a thing of the past. Todays market is more cruel, and information advantages are in the hands of a few people. However, as long as you remain highly cautious and are good at discovering real opportunities, smart investors can still find room for profit in this complex market environment.
