Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author: Wenser ( @wenser 2010 )
Overnight, the bull and bear markets changed.
As Trump spoke again, the U.S. stock market and crypto market, which had experienced a trillion-dollar decline, began their own price recovery journey. Despite this, it is still difficult to conclude that we have returned to a bull market. Many people call the current market a monkey market because of Trumps ambiguous stance and repeated remarks - it can jump up and down and perform back and forth because of one person or one piece of news.
In view of this, the author will briefly sort out the current market stage and the subsequent breakthrough direction of the cryptocurrency industry from a personal perspective, and discuss with readers. Note: Part of this article was inspired by Azuma ( @azuma_eth ), the author of Odaily Planet Daily , and I would like to express my gratitude.
The sign of the beginning of the era of crypto chaos: Trump came to power after the US debt exceeded 36 trillion
1. In February 2024, the total U.S. federal government debt increased to $34.4 trillion; as of March 6, 2025, this figure increased to $36.56 trillion. Compared with $35.8 trillion in January 2025, it has increased by $0.76 trillion in just a few months.
Many people may not have a clear concept of this number, but using the overall market value of the cryptocurrency industry as a comparison will give a more intuitive feeling - as of the time of writing, according to Coingecko data , the total market value of the cryptocurrency industry is approximately US$2.7 trillion. In other words, the current size of U.S. debt is approximately 13.5 times the total market value of cryptocurrencies.
Such a huge national debt scale is the focus of Trumps second term, in addition to economic development, international relations, and political hegemony.
And under the efforts of Trump himself, whose brain is dominated by businessman thinking, and the Internet celebrity government team around him, although the cryptocurrency industry has ushered in a period of friendly supervision, it has inevitably entered the era of chaos - that is, it must face and accept the strongman political situation of US President Trumps dominant influence on the crypto market and even the global economy.
This is also expected after the farce of political celebrities issuing coins started by Trump’s official meme coin TRUMP.
Every crypto player must switch their trading operations more frequently . Don’t try to fully understand Trump’s thinking, but grasp the impact of speeches, news, and information on market trends.
2. Based on the logic of the continued existence of U.S. Treasuries, the only proven effective base for RWA (real world assets) and the so-called RWAFi is U.S. Treasuries .
The fixed income support behind it is mainly due to the current US dollar pricing system in the cryptocurrency market and the guarantee of the political and military power of the authoritarian US government.
3. In such a turbulent and volatile market, crypto players must master a way of thinking, which is the ripple thinking path . If you regard an event as an inducing factor, it will gradually spread like a stone thrown into the water, and the corresponding people/assets/markets/tokens/projects/ecology will be affected by the conduction of the gradually spreading water ripples. Including the decentralized trust crisis encountered by Hyperliquid due to the JELLYJELLY short order incident, it is also a very intuitive case experience. To be able to do this, crypto players need to develop good thinking habits and information acumen. My personal suggestion is to draw more circle diagrams, which is very helpful for improving conductive thinking.
The invisible replacement of the main characters in cryptocurrencies: From VC to KOL, liquidity attention is more important
4. Compared with previous cycles, the current bull market cycle that started in 2023 has more thoroughly disenchanted VC institutions. But at present, there is no intuitive good or bad statement about this trend.
The reason is that in the crypto cycle where VC is the dominant force, VC institutions have the ability to create momentum and can quickly mature one or several mainstream concepts in a short period of time through funding, narratives, etc., thereby concentrating the main liquidity in the crypto industry and quickly realizing the projects start-up-operational growth-TGE coin issuance-secondary circulation full process life cycle. At that time, the last stop for many projects is still the CEX exchange.
After the high FDV, low circulation VC disk was gradually replaced by the so-called Fair Launch inscription, community disk, and Meme coin, the markets attention was further diluted and fragmented, and KOL (broadly speaking, it refers to anyone who can influence the market sentiment and market user focus in the short term) became the distribution center of market attention and market liquidity. At this time, the crypto market no longer has the patience to sharpen a sword for several years, and countless people return to the chain and start passionate PVP games. This is also why the so-called KOL crypto cycle is pouring more and more disks, and the chain is running faster and faster. Because after the launch of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF, the incremental funds are extremely limited, and the existing funds can only be used for zero-sum games. The market is a bloody game of who runs faster , and everyone is afraid of being the last one to take over. Because this means that the result of maximizing losses is paid by oneself.
Therefore, everyone knows that as we enter the crypto market in 2025, especially after the notorious Meme coins such as TRUMP, MELANIA, and LIBRA have carried out an unprecedented series of harvests on new entrants, the crypto crowd is currently playing a greater fool game of passing the parcel.
5. In view of this, most people have to accept the rules of the game that the market has subtly established - stop losses in time and don’t hold for a long time. The ultimate trading goal is still BTC or to deposit the principal in the exchange.
6. From the perspective of new players, Solana ecosystem is more attractive at present. Although this attraction will shift with the emergence of wealth creation effect, compared with it, Ethereum ecosystem and other EVM ecosystems are becoming less attractive to new players. Including Base ecosystem, which has been calling for mass consumer adoption, it is difficult to hide the decline when Friend.tech is close to shutdown, Farcaster is difficult to grow after high financing, Meme coin ecosystem is small-scale, and the entire ecosystem is highly dependent on transaction volume to survive.
For more information about new entrants into the Ethereum mainnet ecosystem, see Ethereum Falls into a Midlife Crisis: Data Dimensions Analyze Its Development Performance .
Potential engine leading the next bull market: medium-return yield products
7. Based on the above situation, as the connection between cryptocurrencies and the U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy deepens, and the number of people covered by cryptocurrencies is gradually approaching the global peak, the mainstream entry of cryptocurrencies has already reached the halfway point to some extent. Although the total market value of cryptocurrencies remains below 3 trillion U.S. dollars, it is undeniable that asset management institutions and giants that manage hundreds of billions or even larger amounts of funds have already set their sights on the cryptocurrency market.
In terms of risk preference and investment purpose, unlike retail investors with smaller funds or who seek high returns and high risks, large-scale institutional funds may prefer stablecoin interest-bearing products. Relevant decision makers are more willing to use derivative stablecoins in exchange for anti-inflation or value-added returns. This is also an important reason why PayFi, DeFi re-staking, and RWA tracks have received more institutional attention and even bets in this cycle.
For many institutions, they need to find a balance between the deposit interest of traditional finance and the high returns of cryptocurrencies - above the 2%-3% interest rate of regular deposits, but under the 20% yield of crypto projects, I personally think that 6%-12% may be a relatively appropriate yield range (for example, the highest USDC deposit rate opened by Coinbase is 12%).
8. For ordinary retail investors, since they do not have large amounts of funds, they can participate in similar on-chain projects or crypto lending platforms through the idea of swiping interactions, that is, diversifying positions, hedging risks, liquidity mining, and regularly harvesting vegetables (generally recommended to be about 1-2 weeks). On the premise of ensuring the safety of the principal, they can obtain more income by obtaining platform points or airdrop returns.
Of course, the premise for doing this is that you should never play with unreliable products and unreliable investment teams.
9. As for specific products, you can screen related projects in the Solana ecosystem, ETH ecosystem, and Sui ecosystem, and strike a balance between being little known and having considerable returns.
Being a sober person in a mixed market: identifying people and institutions worth following
10. For most people in the market, including you and me, the follow-up strategy is still the only choice. In this regard, the specific list of individuals and institutions recommended by Mr. Azuma is as follows:
Co inbase CEO Brian Amstrong;
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX;
Trader Eugene (co-founder of Tangent Capital);
Multicoin Capital (Solana ecosystem is deeply bound to players, mainly refer to its non-Solana ecosystem investment or call targets);
Polychain; Dragonfly; Pentera (an ultra-early investor in BTC) and Coinbase Ventures.
In addition, I personally believe that the investments of some institutions are illogical and of the type of casting a wide net. They have previously enjoyed the convenience of hot trends or ecological niche advantages. Their investment operations should not only not be used as a reference, but should be regarded as a counter-point, such as a16z (a well-known Web2 capital institution, which has previously used the Web3 narrative to create a local bull market from 2021 to 2022 H1. Its investment style is flooding, and it attaches great importance to the KOL-style CX capabilities of asset managers. The rate of return depends mainly on luck or probability); Yzi labs (formerly Binance Labs. CZ himself previously admitted that 80% of investments are losses . You know, this is an important part of the Binance system. I personally think that its success rate does not match its position in the industry).
11. Another indicator to judge whether a project or product is reliable is its official website. If it is a shell or the UI is extremely rough, it is better to give up the idea of giving money to scammers for charity as soon as possible. Don’t donate to high-risk potential Rug projects in vain, just like ZKasino did in the past.
12. A new bull market or cycle will surely come, and the dealers will most likely choose to speculate on new rather than old. The existing old coins represented by the AI agent concept tokens are likely to only be expected to rebound at a stop loss, but it is difficult to reach the level of a stop profit rebound. You can choose the right time to determine the selling position.
13. After the emergence of AI, the importance of applications has been infinitely elevated, because technology is no longer a shackle that traps countless encryption projects, but a tool that allows many people to achieve what you want is what you get. No matter what product it is, it will eventually need the help of applications to reach a wider range of people. We should pay attention to popular applications in the traditional AI field , which may contain opportunities for the cryptocurrency industry to explode again.
