The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
This week, BTC opened at $78,370.15 and closed at $84,733.07, up 6.84% for the week, with an amplitude of 14.89%. The trading volume continued to increase significantly. Since late January, the BTC price has effectively broken through the upper edge of the descending channel for the first time, approaching the 200-day moving average.
Trumps reciprocal tariff war remains the biggest independent variable in global macro-finance this week. Its dramatic performance has stunned the world, and Chinas counterattack has sounded the strongest.
In the collision game, the person who blinks first is likely to lose. The tariff war against the whole world has triggered explicit or implicit reactionary forces from global forces, including but not limited to politics, business and capital.
This ultimately led to capital fleeing the U.S. market, and U.S. “stocks, bonds, and currencies” experienced a rare triple kill.
Faced with the huge financial crisis, the Trump administration chose to make concessions, either partially suspending the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, or reducing the intensity of the tariffs to supplement the list of exempted goods, and showing goodwill to China, its biggest rival, in the public opinion. Since then, the reciprocal tariff war has gradually entered the second stage, and multiple parties will start negotiations and compromises.
The risk equity market, which had plummeted due to the impact of the first phase, has rebounded sharply. Perhaps the most terrible stage caused by the reciprocal tariff war has passed, but the subsequent chaos will continue to dominate various markets. The reciprocal tariff crisis will neither pass easily nor avoid triggering a new crisis. Whether the subsequent reciprocal tariffs will escalate the conflict, whether the Federal Reserve will timely cut interest rates, and whether the US economy will fall into recession have become the main observation points.
Policy, macro-finance and economic data
Because most countries are unable to retaliate against reciprocal tariffs, the countermeasures from China and the European Union have become the main force in resisting US hegemony, with China, which is responding tit-for-tat, as the mainstay.
After several rounds of confrontation, the United States raised its tariffs on China to 145%, and Chinas retaliatory tariffs on the United States to 125%. This has actually basically cut off the possibility of normal trade, so China subsequently announced that it would no longer respond to the United States possible subsequent tariff increases.
On April 10, the United States suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries (excluding China), retaining the 10% baseline tariff and launching negotiations. As a result, U.S. stocks surged, with the Nasdaq recording the second largest single-day gain in history.
Chinas seemingly passive behavior actually puts tremendous pressure on the U.S. On the 12th, the U.S. exempted some Chinese products from a 145% reciprocal tariff, including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, flash memory, display modules, etc.
What really pushed the Trump administration into the second phase was not only Chinas countermeasures, but also the strong opposition from the US political and business circles and the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets.
On Monday, April 7, the three major U.S. stock indexes plunged to set adjustment lows, entering or approaching a technical bear market. The next day, the VIX panic index hit a high of 52.33, the third highest peak since the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crisis.
SP 500 VIX Index
During the same period, short-term Treasury yields fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while long-term Treasury yields rebounded sharply on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%.
US 10-year Treasury yield
After the U.S. stock market suffered a massive sell-off, U.S. bond funds also joined the sell-off. Coupled with the flight of funds from the United States to Europe and other places, the U.S. dollar index DXY also fell sharply.
US Dollar Index
The triple kill of stocks, bonds and currencies forced the Trump administration to send a signal of easing the tariff war and announce an exemption list. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also sent a dovish signal to the outside world. In an interview with the Financial Times on Friday, Boston Fed President Collins said that the Federal Reserve is absolutely ready to use various tools to stabilize financial markets when necessary.
The easing of the tariff war and the Federal Reserves verbal rescue have temporarily eased the US financial market. On Friday, the valuations of the three major US stocks also rose to end a turbulent week.
EMC Labs believes that the USs reciprocal tariff war has entered the second stage, market fears have eased and are gradually beginning to bottom out. However, based on the irrationality of the Trump administration and the huge risks of US economic recession and inflation (the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released this week continued to fall to 50.8), a V-shaped reversal is a low-probability event.
Selling pressure and selling
The selling pressure on the long and short bracelets has weakened this week, slightly stopping the panic selling for three consecutive weeks. The total selling scale on the chain for the whole week was 188,816.61 pieces, of which 178,263.27 pieces were short-handed and 10,553.34 pieces were long-handed. On the 7th and 9th, the short-hand group suffered huge losses again in the global market panic.
Currently, the long-term group is still playing a stabilizing role, with nearly 60,000 coins held this week, indicating that market liquidity is still quite scarce. As of the weekend, the short-term group as a whole is still at a floating loss level of 10%, indicating that the market is still under great pressure.
Floating profit and loss of the entire market on the chain
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.125, and the market is in an upward relay period.
EMC Labs
EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
