Last week (April 15 to April 21), affected by macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, BTC showed a trend of consolidation during the week. With the overflow of funds after the rise of risk aversion, the price of BTC rebounded significantly. On the 21st, the price of BTC rose synchronously with the price of gold, breaking through the resistance level of $88,000 for a short time and then falling back. However, with the change of market sentiment and the recognition of BTCs safe-haven properties, BTC gradually stabilized on the 22nd and reached a high of $88,465.99, with the maximum fluctuation of 6.44% during the week. Currently, the price of BTC is stable at around $88,038.
After falling in the previous two weeks, ETH prices stabilized this week and are currently hovering around $1,500 to $1,600, with the maximum intra-week fluctuation of 7.8% (data source: Binance spot, April 22, 14:40).
Market Interpretation
On April 21, the US stock market rebounded significantly after the holiday. The Dow Jones Index closed down 971 points, and the three major indexes all fell by more than 2%. Large technology stocks generally fell, Tesla fell 5.7%, and Nvidia fell nearly 5%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to 4.405%, and the US dollar index fell below 99. Funds flowed to gold, and New York gold futures rose 3%, breaking through $3,400 per ounce.
BTC strongly decouples from US stocks, the digital gold narrative heats up, and mainstream altcoins rise in unison
Data shows that the correlation between BTC and the stock market has dropped significantly in the past 10 days. Against the backdrop of a continued correction in the U.S. stock market and a weakening U.S. dollar, BTC rose against the trend, breaking through $88,500, hitting a monthly high, showing a significant decoupling trend from the U.S. stock market. In contrast, the SP 500 and the Nasdaq fell sharply due to concerns about the trade war, and gold also broke through $3,400 per ounce, showing a general rise in safe-haven assets.
At the same time, mainstream altcoins such as BNB, SOL, and XRP rose synchronously under the leadership of BTC, continuing the trend of market risk appetite recovery. SOL rose by more than 5% in a week, BNB broke through $600, and XRP broke through the sideways range, all showing strong upward momentum.
The Federal Reserve faces triple pressures, its policy credibility is shaken, and market risk aversion is rising
On April 16, the amount of fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations accepted by the Federal Reserve fell to $54.772 billion, a new low since 2021, indicating that the market demand for short-term US dollar liquidity has declined rapidly and signs of tight funds have emerged. The Federal Reserve is facing the triple pressure of declining liquidity, unclear policy path and challenges to its independence, which has triggered sharp market fluctuations.
The next day, Powell publicly stated that inflation may deviate from the target for the rest of the year, and admitted that there is a lack of modern experience in dealing with policy making under the background of extreme tariffs. He added that if there is a shortage of US dollar liquidity, the Federal Reserve will provide support to global central banks. After the speech was released, US stocks fell across the board, with the SP 500 falling 1.6%, the Nasdaq falling 2.5%, and the Dow falling more than 1%.
On April 21, the US stock market continued to fall, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling another 971 points. The US dollar index fell below 99, and gold rose 3% to break through $3,400 per ounce. Funds clearly flowed to safe-haven assets. At the same time, Trump continued to publicly pressure Powell and was reported to be considering his stay, causing the market to have deep concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Market Hotspots
US economic forecasts revised down, recession risks rising
The latest Reuters survey shows that the US economic growth forecast has been significantly lowered. The GDP forecast for 2025 has dropped from 2.2% to 1.4%, and from 2.0% to 1.5% in 2026. At the same time, the probability of the US falling into a recession in the next year has been raised to 45%, the highest level since December 2023.
The survey also showed that the US CPI inflation expectations for 2025 have seen the largest increase since March 2023, reflecting the markets growing concerns about stagflation risks. The slowdown in growth coupled with rising inflation will make monetary policy space more complicated, and the market may further tend to allocate safe-haven assets.
SEC to hold crypto custody roundtable, compliance pressure continues to rise
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it will hold the third crypto policy roundtable on April 25, with the core topic focusing on crypto asset custody. The meeting will set up two special groups to discuss broker and wallet custody, and the custody compliance framework for investment advisors and fund institutions.
This meeting sent a signal that regulation is continuing to advance, especially in the context of the custody link being a key factor influencing institutional entry. Analysts pointed out that the SECs focus on custody issues may indicate that compliance requirements for exchanges and custody service providers will be further refined in the future, and the operating space of institutional investors may be limited.
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