Original title: CRYPTO THESES 2024
Original source: Messari
Original compilation: Deep Chao TechFlow
As promised, Messari, a well-known encryption data and research institution, released Messari Theses 2024. We have compiled and translated the first chapter for you, the top ten investment trends in 2024.
In the authors opinion, Web3 is a silly concept. When everyone stopped using this term and returned to the Crypto narrative, the total market value of cryptocurrency doubled.
In this year’s investment trend forecast, Messari expressed his strong optimism for Bitcoin. At the same time, he was bearish on Ethereum and felt that the narrative of “ultrasonic currency” (referring to continued deflation leading to continued rise) is nonsense. Compared with Solana, Ethereum does not have an overwhelming advantage. In addition, Messari is strongly optimistic about the combination of AI and cryptocurrency. Judging from the subsequent disclosure of analyst positions, many people hold tokens such as AKT\TAO.Messari is also optimistic about the three emerging narratives of DePIN, DeSoc, and DeSci.
Welcome to read the full text:
1.0 Investment Trends
Last December, on behalf of everyone in the cryptocurrency space, I abolished"Web3 "word.
Its a bullshit, PR-speak that undermines every interesting thing were trying to build.
NFT PFP collection is Web3,"DeFi 2.0"Its Web3, Sam Bankman-Fried is Web3...
In the crypto world, I want more things like personal wallets, transaction privacy, infrastructure advancements, DeFi, DePIN, and DeSoc that dont rely entirely on Ponzi schemes.
This year, it did not disappoint.
Since the cold-blooded murder of the word Web3, cryptocurrency market capitalization has nearly doubled. The biggest fraudsters in our industry are either in jail or going there soon.
Great products are paired with a sleek design and then launched. And Im even more excited about the prospects for cryptocurrencies in 2024.
Simply put, the state of the crypto market is strong.
I realize there are some newbies reading this, so Id like to remind you that this is an advanced course, not an introductory course for beginners.
Im going to assume you already have the knowledge, and Ill be very succinct because time is an important factor.
This opening Investment Trends section is for those of you who want to tell your friends that you read the entire report. I don’t feel the need to start a victory lap on the first three quarters I reported on last year, but we are seeing tailwinds across a variety of market segments and evidence to support much-needed optimism recently after the long crypto winter.
We will start this article with the case of Bitcoin’s bull run in 2024.
1.1 BTC and digital gold
Where are we now? Its a bit like January 2015, or December 2018, a bit more like selling a kidney to buy more Bitcoins.
These are my views on Bitcoin in December 2022.
While predicting where Bitcoin will trade in the short term is difficult, its appeal over longer timescales is almost indisputable.
We don’t know if the Fed will raise interest rates further, or slam on the brakes, reverse course, and begin quantitative easing in earnest. We don’t know whether we will face a commercial real estate-driven recession, or whether we will succeed in achieving a “soft landing” of the economy after the post-COVID monetary and fiscal whiplash. We don’t know if stocks will fall or fluctuate, or if Bitcoin will prove relevant to tech stocks or gold.
On the other hand, the long-term argument for Bitcoin is straightforward. Everything is going digital. The government is over-indebted and profligate, and they will keep printing money until they fail completely. The total amount of Bitcoin available to investors is only 21 million. The most powerful MEME on the market is the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, ushering in its quadrennial marketing event.
Sometimes you just have to keep it simple!
For the sake of consistency from year to year, lets revisit the MVRV chart I wrote about last year that made people sell their kidneys to buy. Recall that this chart compares Bitcoin’s current market value (MV, which is price * total supply) to its realized market value (RV, which is the sum of the products of price * unit supply at the time each unit was last moved on the chain ).
In the above calculation theory, if the ratio between the two is below 1, it is the golden zone. Ratios above 3 always mark the top of a cycle.
After a 150% gain this year, is Bitcoin still a good “buy”?
The answer is quite certain.
Perhaps we are no longer in deep value territory, but given some of the institutional tailwind events currently supporting us (ETF approvals, FASB accounting changes, new sovereign buyers, etc., see Chapter 4.1), investors are buying MVRV ratios of 1.3 Bitcoin is clearly no longer a blind leap of faith.
Keep in mind that as more Bitcoin inevitably gets locked up in ETF products, the MVRV ratio will also be artificially high because new purchases will be higher compared to the trading records on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Home will not appear that frequently on the chain. An MVRV ratio of just over 1 is just below the historical median.
You know whats more fascinating, lets say youre interested in cryptocurrencies as an asset class.
Bitcoin tends to lead the recovery. We have recently seen new multi-year highs in Bitcoin dominance, but it is still not close to the highs we reached at the start of the bull markets in 2017 and 2021. In 2017, Bitcoin’s dominance shrank from 87% to 37%. During its consolidation phase and rise to $40,000 in 2021, it regained 70% of the market share before falling to 38% at the peak of the bubble. We just hit 54%. There is still room for integration.
Honestly, it’s hard to see the catalyst for another cryptocurrency boom not starting with Bitcoin’s continued surge.
DeFi faces continued regulatory headwinds that will limit growth in the short term. The NFT movement is essentially dead. Other upcoming areas (stablecoins, gaming, decentralized social and infrastructure, etc.) are more likely to rise slowly and steadily rather than sharply and suddenly.
Big money managers agree. Binance has done some excellent research recently, showing that “Bitcoin” sentiment overcame “crypto” sentiment among asset allocators over the summer (although perhaps this sentiment is shifting as ETHBTC underperforms).
With momentum like this, my bet is that in an ETF-driven rally (leading the way up) or severe macro stress (consolidating on the way down),Bitcoin dominance will return to 60%.
Even if Im wrong and weve already seen the highs of Bitcoin dominance this cycle, I feel the likelihood of a nominal and relative decline in Bitcoin price is extremely low.
A play on the highest expectations in the early stages of a cryptocurrency bull marketHas always been the leader in betting,This cycle is (and will continue to be) true.
I will reiterate what I said last year:I find Ethereum’s argument for “ultrasonic currency” (note: referring to price increases caused by continued deflation) completely unconvincing. If such a MEME had strength, the liquidity data would not be like this.Even after the approval of the ETH futures ETF:
We may not see another 100x rally for Bitcoin, but the asset could easily outperform other mature asset classes again in 2024.Eventually parity with gold would bring the price of each BTC to over $600,000. Remember: Gold has many of the same macro-positive events, so that price is not necessarily the upper limit.
If the currency crisis is severe enough, cryptocurrencies will become worth every penny: 1 BTC is worth 1 BTC.
[Related reading: BTC third quarter quarterly report]
1.2 Ethereum
Ethereum successfully completed the “Merge” in September 2022 and the “Shapella” upgrade in April 2023. These are among the most technically impressive upgrades in history. The “merger” also opens a new era for Ethereum as a net deflationary digital asset. I love Ethereum and everything that comes from it. Messari itself would not exist without the crypto-asset ecosystem Vitalik has built. But in the long run,The investment case for ETH is more like that of Visa or JP Morgan than it is of Google or Microsoft, or a commodity like gold or oil.ETH is in a dilemma. BTC outperforms ETH as a digital currency due to institutional allocators’ interest in digital gold’s “pure play”, while widely available Ethereum alternatives (L0s, L1s, L2s) may absorb as they compare to the main Ethereum chain Outstanding performance due to on-chain transaction volume.I dont see a situation where ETH can outperform Bitcoin and the high beta performance that is coming.Having said that, I wouldnt be opposed to ETH on a nominal basis. It has withstood multiple technological challenges and market cycles. It has (arguably) better supply dynamics than Bitcoin today. I agree that any ETH bridged to other rollups is probably gone forever and will not come back to accept bids. Being pessimistic about ETH is not a criticism of Ethereum, but a clear realization that ETH has so far dominated as an asset, and it is difficult for its network token to continue to maintain more than 60% of the market share among its peers.
When I think about Ethereum vs. Solana,What Im thinking of is Visa versus Mastercard, not Google versus Bing.Even if I give ETH geeks a fair chance, I still have to point to relevant data indicators and note that ETHs price/performance ratio compared to BTC is very poor.
Ill talk more about the technology later, but I know youre not sitting around the fireplace drooling over my thoughts on sharding. You want no-brainer bullish/bearish recommendations, and betting on ETH is right in the middle of the bell curve. Ill definitely be debating this with the Bankless guys soon. (Note: While I hate betting, this staunch view has weakened since I first drafted this section. With BTC now up ~150% and SOL up over 6x year-to-date, we have reached a point where ETH needs some regression average, as it has been a stablecoin for the past many months and has lagged significantly.) [Must Read: ETH Q3 Quarterly Report]
1.3 (Liquidity) Area
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and USD-backed stablecoins now account for 75% of the $1.6 trillion overall cryptocurrency market. However, this situation will not remain unchanged.
I founded a company based on the premise that the remaining 25% of the crypto market will grow 100x over the next decade, and investors will need more sophisticated due diligence tools to analyze thousands of crypto assets , rather than just limited to two types. Calculated based on the current market size, the 100-fold growth of this other area will make the liquid crypto capital market slightly larger than the private capital market ($20 to 25 trillion), accounting for approximately 30% to 30% of the global debt and equity capital market. 35%.
More importantly: if you agree with me that blockchain is essentially an accounting innovation, then eventually all assets will become crypto assets traded on public blockchains, rather than relying on traditional liquidation and settlement systems, whether they are “utility tokens” or “equity tokens.” Over time, the relationship between cryptocurrencies and traditional finance (TradFi) will become closer and closer, eventually becoming almost one.
Of course, sticking to market capitalization weighted index investing in BTC and ETH also has its advantages.
First, historically this has proven to be a successful strategy. If you attended the North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami in 2014 and purchased the products promoted by Vitalik (Ethereum ICO and Bitcoin), you would have enjoyed 75% of the markets growth in the past ten years. These blue-chip assets have now become some of the most robust “hard investments” in the cryptocurrency market because you don’t have to worry about the risk of supply dilution over time.
In contrast, many other top projects have large financial reserves that may be gradually sold by insiders over time. Therefore, while their “market capitalization” may increase, their token prices may remain the same or even decrease.
Of course, this is not investment advice. But as a historical researcher, I understand:
A. While BTC and ETH may be the current market leaders, they are not unshakable forever;
B. Although there are 26,000 stocks trading on the market, only 86 of them have contributed more than half of the value added to the U.S. market since 1926.
Many of the stock market leaders of the 1920s are no longer around today, and the development of the cryptocurrency market will be no exception. So, what is a person like me who likes passive indexes to do?
To be honest, theres not much that can be done at the moment. Existing crypto index product alternatives are not very attractive, and I suspect this will change in 2024.
A low-fee, automatically rebalancing index would undoubtedly be an excellent investment tool given the oversupply of tokens and market liquidity. But to get index exposure today, your options are either paying exorbitant AUM (assets under management) fees (such as 200-250 basis points for Grayscale products), trading fees (actively managed crypto funds) or complex methodologies (There are significant regulatory and technical risks in properly implementing on-chain operations).
For investing in crypto assets ranked 3 to 1000, a cheap way is to rely on your own investment ability. I can give you an example.
A simple index investing strategy to implement at home might be to monitor Kaikos liquidity list and rebalance on a quarterly basis. If you buy green assets whose liquidity ranks are higher than market cap and sell red assets whose market cap ranks are higher than liquidity, then youre essentially copying my long/short list of large assets so far this year (which, of course, isnt Investment Advice).
Source: Kaiko
1.4 Is the private cryptocurrency market recovering?
A few years ago, I wrote about how unhappy crypto fund managers were that their business model consisted of nothing more than “losing alpha” on behalf of their clients. Turns out, I was right.
(I’m not patting myself on the back, but I’m convincing myself that I made the right decision in abandoning the most profitable business model in the world, even though I could have been doing it since 2017 with a 2% management fee plus 20% profit share works regardless of Bitcoin/Ethereum yields.)
Not only have many crypto investors underperformed, they have even exited the market. Some liquidity investors get into trouble because of bad leverage positions (like 3AC), bad counterparties (like Ikigai), or both (we discuss DCG in detail in Chapter 6). You should know all this, so I won’t repeat last year’s crisis.
So what happens in 2024? The liquid crypto market remains a jungle fraught with technical and counterparty risks, high transaction fees, and fierce competition. Adjacent to this jungle is a real Death Valley——Private crypto venture capital market.
Overall, the VC market has been severely hit by the Federal Reserve’s alarming monetary policies over the past few years. Crypto infrastructure has taken a bigger hit due to fraud and widespread regulatory crackdowns. New users and customers are being excluded from exposure to “long-tail” crypto assets pending much-needed legal clarity, while older users and customers are cutting back on spending to survive the winter as long as possible. This resulted in brutal demand destruction: service revenue fell, cash burn accelerated, budgets were further reduced, and so on.
To make matters worse, AI has become the new darling of the technology world. Once again we are bystanders. (As I explained in Chapter 1.8, I think this is a stupid MEME and a bad choice, AI and cryptocurrencies actually go well together.)
Nonetheless, I remain optimistic about new crypto Tier 1 investors. Funds in 2023 are likely to outperform the SP over the medium to long term, and many may even outperform the BTC/ETH benchmark on the back of unusually low entry prices this year. Liquidity markets have been revitalized, and there are some signs of a rebound in the venture capital market.
Private venture capital funding (seed to Series D+) reached its highest level since May, with more than $500 million in deals announced (track them in our funding screener):
Here is a list of some of the crypto funds I’m following this year:
Multicoin: I wrote a trilogy about their legendary performance in 2021. However, it is unclear how their LPs will respond to the harsh reality of SOL plummeting 96% in 2022. Even if Multicoins AUM rebounds sharply again this year, Im not sure any fund LP has experienced a bigger roller coaster.
1co nfirmation：Nick Tomaino is one of the most honest crypto investors I have ever met. He writes candidly about the benchmark issues I mentioned above, the need for better accountability in crypto investing, and his role as one of the few contrarian investors to question Sams. First came SBF, then Altman. His actions have proven his point, and he even shared the DPI of his fund, which is very rare in the venture capital market.
There are also some investors who were “bullish at the bottom” and their tweets turned out to be correct in hindsight. Framework (Vance) and Placeholder (Burniske) are two examples of companies that have expressed specific views and are not simply perpetual bulls. (Even those who were bullish at the top may prove to be prophets in the long run.)
a16z and Paradigm may be at a disadvantage in valuing their private equity portfolios depending on how much capital they invest at the top of the market in 2021, but I wouldnt want to bet against Chris Dixon, Matt Huang and their team. In fact, Im somewhat thankful that they (probably) had some years when their investments were underperforming or temporarily in the red. That makes them the industrys best warriors in Washington, and their policy teams have excelled.
Syncracy Capital has significantly outperformed the crypto market since its inception. The team includes three former Messari analysts, including co-founder Ryan Watkins. Full disclosure, I am an LP in this fund and will unashamedly advocate for those who helped build Messari and continue to make money for me after they leave. They are one of the few new liquidity funds I know of that has consistently outperformed the BTC/ETH benchmark since inception.
1.5 IPOs and MA
In the cryptocurrency world, there are three companies that stand out because of their positioning, team, and access to capital: Coinbase, Circle, and Galaxy Digital.
Coinbase remains the most important company in the cryptocurrency space. As the most valuable and most regulated cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, Coinbase deserves its own mention. Coinbase is unlikely to encounter major competitors in the U.S. market next year.But one of its major partners, Circle, may IPO in 2024.
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire shared on Mainnet that Circle had revenue of $800 million and EBITDA of $200 million in the first half of 2023 — a number equivalent to the company’s revenue for all of 2022. data, and revenue is likely to grow further in a higher and longer interest rate environment.
Circle could take advantage of developments in U.S. stablecoin policy or a boom in international stablecoin growth and thus be well-positioned in cryptocurrencies. The companys valuation rests almost entirely on the trust the market places in its product and technology growth, rather than its we earn interest on your float economics (*Tether is even stronger financially, since Tether has regained its market share since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, but don’t expect its S-1 anytime soon).
I had thought that DCG would be a candidate for an IPO due to its diverse service portfolio. But DCG is under siege and may not go public for a long time. At the very least, DCG will face the difficult challenge of rebuilding its institutional reputation following the bankruptcy proceedings of its subsidiary Genesis (a public scandal) and the rapid liquidation of its core assets in the past 12 months (GBTC, CoinDesk spinoff, etc.).
Meanwhile, the stock price of another New York-based crypto-finance conglomerate is rising (both figuratively and literally). Galaxy Digital’s venture capital portfolio, trading arm, mining operations and research arm could help it usurp DCG’s place in the cryptocurrency industry narrative: Mike Novogratz (Galaxy’s CEO)’s company is already listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $3 billion Dollar.
Thats enough to give Novogratzs team the option to pursue an aggressive integration strategy in 2024, if they choose. Amid continued venture capital pressure, some major assets are bound to struggle, and Novogratz already has a full team of investment banking advisors in place.
Apart from the above companies, I wouldnt put much hope in the IPO of any other cryptocurrency company. I doubt other IPOs will be allowed before the 2024 US election. Therefore, under the current regulatory regime, the path to cryptocurrency liquidity is still through the token market.
1.6 Policy
(Editors note: This paragraph mainly discusses the possibility of the United States succeeding in the global encryption market, as well as the current challenges it faces. The author mentioned some important historical events and trends, including the encryption wars of the 1990s, government concerns about digital privacy Regulation and changes in the U.S.s position in global competition underscore that younger generations may have different attitudes toward digital privacy and personal freedoms than previous generations, which could have an impact on encryption policy. There will be a somewhat ideological content, A bit boring, can be skipped)
Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will be mentioned in later chapters, and well get to these excellent people shortly. Dont worry.
But first, we need to step back and look at the whole situation. The United States has the technical talent, financial markets, and regulatory policies to win the global cryptocurrency market to ensure that the United States is a financial and technological powerhouse in the 21st century, but I don’t think we have enough cypherpunks to save us this time.
The past 30 years have been more than just our formative years as Millennials, they also provide clues and context for the crypto policies we might expect in the short and medium term. Among the most influential events and changes to cryptocurrencies over the past few decades, one historical analogy and two significant trends stand out for our attention:
1. The original cryptocurrency wars of the 1990s included an unfair battle with NSA diehards, legislative proposals to install a literal government chip in all your devices to unlock on demand, and a popular , a grassroots rebellion led by developers against government overreach. This is where the term “cypherpunks write code” comes from. You should read this book about the crypto wars, or at least this paper.
It has accelerated the history of cryptography. It’s a story of an underdog coming back, although it seems unlikely that this victory will be repeated in our cryptocurrencies due to profound cultural changes in the United States.
2. Complacency and the Awakening Spell: Unfortunately, Generation X (those born between 1964 and 1980) are getting older, and Generation X has teamed up with the Baby Boomers to do some pretty horrific and unconstitutional things since then. Today’s “encryption” poses a major threat to the state order of “surveillance and control”. When we look at our younger protagonists, the Millennials and Generation Z (1995 to 2009), the problem is that they probably dont care at all about fighting. They are accustomed to eroding civil liberties in the post-Patriot Act, post-COVID world. After 20 years and $7 trillion of global military disaster, they have never lived with a national security establishment that looked inward. Many of them are even dismissive of the Twitter docs and Big Tech’s industrial complex of censorship. Peter Thiel and David Sacks wrote a predictive piece in the early 1990s about the dangers of uniformity in campus culture, and SBF is just a reminder of what we already know, that such uniformity can be performative but is now harmful.
3. The End of American Hegemony: When you combine #1 and #2, what you really need to understand is that there was a large segment of government officials who really believed that the tech policy of the 90s was a mistake, and the wonders of the open internet and what it brought economic growth has had a net negative impact on American society. Technology became the scapegoat.
While our concerns about undermining our manufacturing base and over-financializing our economy have some validity, its a bit scary that many people envy Chinas closed internet and only see a missed opportunity to curb disinformation. We are no longer the only superpower, as the bureaucracies of competitors like China appear to be working in certain areas and our leaders want more control.
Our culture has declined, our domestic gerontocracy is paranoid, and this time we have powerful opponents. We have to play a different game and focus on the Moneyball election. Here’s the good news: we’re going to win. (Chapter 5 will talk more about how this will happen) (I know you may think these trends are completely unrelated, or at best slightly related to cryptocurrencies, but that’s what they said about Pepe Silvia. Us A life-or-death information war is underway.)
1.7 Is there anything developers can do?
Despite the fact that the cryptocurrency market has been in deep recession over the past two years, with trading volumes declining and regulatory headwinds looming, cryptocurrency developer activity has still performed well this year. In the middle of the year, Alchemy found that the number of smart contracts deployed on the EVM chain increased by 300% quarter-on-quarter, while the number of crypto wallet installations hit a record high.
Electric Capital found that monthly active developers contributing to open source projects had dropped sharply year-over-year as of October, but this was attributed to a variety of factors: regulatory indifference to the open source ecosystem following this year’s Ooki DAO ruling; More innovation and development; and a more cautious attitude toward competitive threats in a bear market.
a16z’s Cryptocurrency Market State Index is perhaps the best index to look at overall market health. Its tracking also highlighted a 30% drop in the number of open source developers, but it also recorded some positive market data: developer library downloads hit an all-time high in the third quarter, and active addresses and mobile wallet activity hit an all-time low. Is this the spark that will ignite the explosion of crypto adoption in 2024? If I could blindly invest in cryptocurrencies based on a single chart, it would be this:
Just wait until AI developers realize that cryptocurrency is another battleground for them, and that’s when things will really start to turn around.
1.8 AI Cryptocurrency
In this digital age marked by abundant AIGC, technologies that provide reliable, global, mathematically guaranteed provenance and digital scarcity are crucial.
Take deepfakes as an example: Cryptocurrencies are extremely important in timestamping and authenticating devices and data. Without encryption, it would be difficult to verify whether certain images or text came from AI or non-AI, or from Washington or Beijing. In addition, without the fees required for a public chain, preventing generated DDOS attacks will also be a challenge.
The rise of artificial intelligence is seen as a threat to cryptocurrencies in the same way that mobile technology was once seen as a threat to the Internet, which is patently absurd. Advances in artificial intelligence will only increase the demand for cryptocurrency solutions. While we may debate whether AI is good or bad for humans (just like we debate whether iPhones are good or bad...but we still know they are clearly beneficial), AI is great for cryptocurrencies .
I personally welcome our machine overlords, who have brought us the perfect machine currency: Bitcoin.
There’s no need to overthink this, but it’s worth noting what Arthur Hayes (BitMEX founder) wrote on the topic this summer. For any artificial intelligence,The two most critical elements are data and computing power.Therefore, it seems reasonable that “artificial intelligence will trade a currency that retains its energy purchasing power over time,” which describes Bitcoin perfectly.
Some criticize this view as being too simplistic, especially considering that two potential AI application scenarios - micropayments and smart contract execution - have not yet been significantly developed on Bitcoin. Some believe that AI agents will choose The lowest-cost blockchain does not necessarily choose Bitcoin because Bitcoin’s POW mechanism has transaction friction.
Dustin (Messari researcher) believes that the idea of energy-denominated currency may be just the opposite:AI agents may prefer to purchase Gas tokens (related computing resources) directly.
1.9 DePIN、DeSoc、DeSci
Im permanently bullish on decentralized finance (DeFi), but Im not necessarily overweight it because I think other market segments will perform better in the year ahead.
I do think some of the top DeFi protocols in the space (especially in the decentralized exchange space) will rebound after a flat year in trading volume, but I dont know if the unit economics and product market fit of DeFi More than enough to offset the coming tough regulations.
Additionally, the types of assets driving DeFi trading volume are also an issue. This year’s trading peak is mainly driven by MEME coins, rather than breakthroughs in new applications. Maybe I’m thinking too much about DeFi doomsday scenarios in Washington (more on this in Chapter 8).
My sights turn to several key non-financial sectors of the crypto space. I like DePIN (Physical Infrastructure Networking), DeSoc (Social Media), and DeSci (yes, the science!) because they seem less driven by rampant hype and instead revolve around key solutions for our industry that extend far beyond finance plan.
Sami (Messari researcher) helped popularize the term DePIN last year, and no one is better at mapping the landscape of these hardware networks or articulating how these networks can scale to truly compete with the big tech companies.
Cloud infrastructure services are a $5 trillion industry in the traditional market, and DePIN only accounts for 0.1% of it. Even assuming that 0% (note: I think I should write 1% here) of online services use DePIN as their main stack, the need for decentralized redundancy alone may cause a surge in demand. In order to eliminate the risk of big technology platforms, an insurance premium of 1% will lead to a 10-fold increase in DePIN utilization. It doesn’t take much to make a difference, especially with the demand for GPU and computing resources driven by artificial intelligence.
A similar opportunity exists in social media, where the major players generated $230 billion in revenue last year (half of which came from the Meta family of companies), yet only a tiny percentage of creators make enough money from content creation.
Weve seen that changing (YouTubes continued growth, Elons revenue sharing) and weve seen potential breakthrough DeSoc applications (Farcaster, friend.tech, Lens), and its more of a virtual reality in the beginning. The beginning of an imperceptible J-curve, not a false start.
Friend.tech shared $50 million with its creators within months of launching as a way to attract users.I think DeSoc in 2024 will follow the DeFi Summer craze of 2020.
Finally, there is decentralized science. 50% of the DeSci projects we track were built within the past year. One of the best OG cryptocurrency investors I know already spends 100% of his time here.
Cryptocurrency incentives make sense in this market: Trust in our scientific institutions may be at an all-time low, and the current system is riddled with bureaucratic inefficiencies, inadequate data methods, and poor incentives (via Peer-reviewed papers lead to tenure), and cryptocurrencies have proven their ability to fund... scientific experiments.
To scale, token sales and DAOs aim to revolutionize the way we conduct research, and interest in longevity, rare disease treatments, and space exploration is large enough to drive growth in the field.
You can invest directly in DePIN and start using the DeSoc app now. However, I dont know of any way to lazily express DeScis investment thesis. (VitaDAO?)
If you think of it, feel free to DM me.
