Debate performance exceeded expectations
The September 10th US presidential candidate debate attracted widespread attention. This was the first time that Harris and Trump faced off head-on, and it was also likely to be the only debate before the election. The last debate contributed to Bidens withdrawal from the race to a certain extent, which in turn affected the pattern of the election. In this debate, the market generally believed that Harriss performance was impressive and exceeded expectations, while Trumps response was mediocre.
After the debate, the betting market also reacted quickly. In just two hours, the price of the betting contract for Harriss election rose from $53 to $57, while the price of the contract for Trumps election fell from $52 to $47, and the gap between the two parties widened further. This change reflects that more people are optimistic about Harriss victory, confirming that her debate performance exceeded market expectations.
In this debate, Harris performed well on many issues. First, she faced the concerns of female voters on the issue of abortion and showed strong empathy and compassion. Second, in the discussion of racial issues, she showed a deep understanding and support for ethnic minorities by sharing her personal experience. Third, Harris focused on emphasizing future development plans and deliberately distinguished herself from Biden, allowing her to convey a sense of hope for injecting fresh power and promoting change. In comparison, Trumps performance in the debate was relatively poor. He mainly focused on issues such as illegal immigration, tariff policies, and the supply of fossil energy. Although these issues are important, his arguments lack innovation and may find it difficult to attract the favor of centrist voters.
Against this backdrop, Harris took advantage of the situation and invited Republican candidate Trump to another televised debate on social media, which attracted considerable attention. She tried to win more votes for herself by having another debate.
Shooting at campaign office
Against the backdrop of Trump gaining more support after being shot twice in a row, Harris recently experienced the same thing.
The US police reported on September 24 local time that Harris campaign office in Arizona was shot. There were four bullet holes on the glass door and windows of the office. The shooting took place at night, and no one was in the office at the time of the incident, causing no casualties. After preliminary investigation, the police determined that this was a potential property crime.
At present, the market has two interpretations of this shooting:
There is a view that this is a revenge action initiated by Trump supporters. As one of the few people who dare to challenge the deep government, Trump has long been a hero in the hearts of some redneck groups. Therefore, after Trump has been assassinated many times, these people may choose to fight violence with violence and stand up.
Another theory is that this may be a play directed and performed by Harris herself in order to divert public attention and confuse the public. Because using such a simple shooting incident against the office as a means of retaliation is really too stupid, which will not only not cause any harm to Harris, but may strengthen the negative image of Trump supporters are violent elements, thus benefiting Harris campaign.
Coincidentally, the shooting at Harris campaign office seemed to echo Musks previous joke. Earlier, after Trump was shot for the second time on the golf course, Musk reposted a post titled Why are they killing Trump on the X platform, and attached his own comments, questioning why no one tried to assassinate Harris, and also accompanied it with a thinking emoji. But then Musk deleted the post and said it was just a joke.
Spending $4.9 million more than Trump every day, trying to use money to get rid of the US president
The latest federal filings show that Harris and her campaign team and the Democratic National Committees daily spending far exceeds Trump and the Republican Partys campaign spending. Harris team spent an average of $7.5 million a day in August, while Trumps camp spent an average of $2.6 million a day. In this way, Harriss daily campaign spending is a full $4.9 million more than Trumps.
Harris is also far ahead in raising campaign funds. According to data from the Federal Election Commission, Harris campaign team and the Democratic Party raised a total of $361 million in August, and has now raised a total of $404 million. In contrast, Trumps campaign team only raised $130 million during the same period, plus $25 million donated by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) Political Action Committee, and as of the end of August, Trumps campaign funds totaled $295 million.
More money also adds a boost to Harris campaign.
The funds will help Harris expand her nationwide campaign team, hire more political talent, set up offices across the country, directly contact voters and promote her own governance ideas; at the same time, increase the scale of advertising, including multi-channel publicity such as television, newspapers, radio and social media; finally, it can also be used to conduct more opinion polls and research, support more rallies and door-to-door visits and other activities, and enhance voters favorability and impression.
Buffed but full of black material
Before officially becoming a candidate and competing against Trump, Harris was able to be elected as the Democratic vice president thanks to her multiple advantages: minority background, immigrant family background, female identity, graduation from a prestigious university, professional lawyer, and the first female attorney general in California. It can be said that almost all the advantages, except for the LGBTQ community, are concentrated on Harris.
Harris was born into a highly educated immigrant family. Her father is a Jamaican black man, a former professor emeritus at Stanford University, and a communist economist (which has sometimes led to her being criticized). Her mother is an Indian biologist. In addition, Harris husband Doug Emhoff is of Jewish descent, which gives her some support among Jewish voters.
After completing high school in Montreal, Canada, Harris was admitted to Howard University in the United States, majoring in economics and political science. In graduate school, she successfully entered the Hastings College of the Law at the University of California, Los Angeles, and obtained a doctorate in law. After passing the bar exam, she successfully joined the California Bar Association and subsequently served as the Attorney General of the City of San Francisco.
Although Harris has a brilliant personal resume, there are also many controversies. First, she was accused of obstructing the review of child molestation cases while serving as a prosecutor in San Francisco. In addition, she was criticized for issues such as the truancy bill and the zero dollar shopping bill. Her campaign behavior also caused controversy, such as taking the Chinese name He Jinli in order to win over Chinese voters, and being a mistress. She was also accused of being ungrateful to the Biden family and using the campaign opportunity to expose negative news about Biden. At the same time, Harris is an extremely anti-China politician. When she was a senator, she made many sharp remarks about China and promoted some important China-related bills, including the infamous S 386 bill, known as the new Chinese exclusion bill.
Similarities and differences between Harris policies and Trumps
Harris lead in the polls widened after the September presidential debate, to 1.6% ahead of Trump. Harris currently has about 226 electoral votes in the confirmed field, while Trump has about 219. To win, Harris needs 44 more electoral votes, while Trump needs 51.
Comparing the policy proposals of the two candidates, it is obvious that Harris moderate policy is likely to have a smaller impact on the market than Trump. Harriss subsidy to residents through fiscal expansion may lead to an increase in bond issuance in the short term, which is unfavorable to bond assets, but will also support the US dollar. In addition, her tax increase policy puts pressure on US stocks. Trumps policy is relatively beneficial to US stocks, cyclical commodities and Bitcoin, but may have an intervention effect on the US dollar.
In the next two months, Trump still has a chance to overtake. The US presidential election adopts the Electoral College system, so the candidate with the most popular votes may not be elected. According to the current poll support rates in various states, the election in swing states is more intense than ever.
