Affected by strong non-agricultural data and the news that the US Department of Justice was approved to liquidate the BTC seized in the Silk Road case, the global market experienced a volatile correction at the beginning of the year. Under inflationary pressure, interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical fluctuations, the CPI lower than expected briefly injected a shot of adrenaline into the market. With Trump taking office and the start of the earnings season, the future monetary and fiscal path will become the focus of market attention.
The price of BTC has also risen with the release of multiple catalysts. On the whole, if the price of BTC breaks through $103,000, BTC may enter a structural bullish phase. However, it is particularly important to remain vigilant and balance risks in the FOMO mood. It is critical to reasonably evaluate the tactical buying time nodes and dynamically balance the asset allocation in 2025.
CPI data is lower than expected, multiple catalysts help crypto assets rise
On January 15, the US CPI data was released. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate in December was 3.2%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.30%, the lowest since August 24; the unadjusted CPI annual rate in December was 2.9%, in line with market expectations. The cooling of the core CPI eased the markets concerns about the intensification of inflation in the United States, and the global market rebounded rapidly. BTC also rebounded strongly by 4 points after the information was released, and the price stabilized around 10k.
BTC spot ETF also reversed its downward trend and returned to net inflow after 4 consecutive days of net outflow. On the 15th, the total net inflow of BTC spot ETF was US$755 million; on the 16th, the total net inflow of BTC spot ETF was US$626 million, among which BlackRock IBIT had the highest single-day net inflow of US$528 million.
At the same time, the number of initial claims in the United States has increased, but the number of layoffs is in the market position, and the overall job market is in a resilient and healthy state. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday: The number of initial unemployment claims in the week of January 11 increased by 14,000 to 217,000 after seasonal adjustment, exceeding the market expectation of 210,000. In the context of relatively mild inflation and an overall healthy job market, the market generally believes that there will be two interest rate cuts this year.
Trumps inauguration is imminent, which may drive up implied volatility
On January 20, Trumps inauguration is imminent. The Trump administrations pro-crypto stance is the catalyst that the market has been looking forward to. It is not ruled out that it can hedge the negative impact of high inflation data to a certain extent and bring certain market support to BTC prices. Market sentiment is also generally bullish on BTC. A recent survey by Citigroup (for its TradFi clients) showed that respondents generally expected BTC prices to rise in 2025, and most expected the price to be in the range of $100,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year.
If BTC price breaks through $103,000, BTC may enter a structural bullish phase. Even if the market momentum weakens, BTC will show relative resilience in the early stages as strategic investors move from altcoins to what they consider to be a safer and more confident transaction - namely BTC.
Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
