Original author: Murphy, on-chain data analyst
——You don’t know until you compare. Once you compare, you’ll be shocked.
Realized Price (RPC) is a concept often used in on-chain data. Before understanding RPC, you need to understand the realized market value (RC). RC is the sum of the prices of all tokens at the last move.
RC eliminates interference factors such as lost or long-term non-circulation, and can better reflect the real value stored in the entire blockchain network;
Divide RC by the current circulating supply to get RPC. The higher the price of selling (moving) tokens, the more sufficient the subsequent funds are, and vice versa. In other words, only real money can be bought at high prices to make RPC higher, so it is also the most direct basis for observing capital flows.
At the same time, RPC is also regarded as the average turnover cost. Whenever there is a callback, RPC can play an important supporting role. Once the price is lower than RPC, it means that the average is in a loss state. At this time, the asset price is underestimated. When the cost performance appears, it will attract more bargain hunting funds, and slowly form a bottom range.
BTC
Figure 1 shows the RPC data of BTC at different ages (coin holding time). It can be seen that among the four long-term holders (LTH) groups, the longer the time, the lower the average cost. The cost of 3-6 months (3-6 m) is $69,200; the cost of 2-3 years (2-3 y) is $28,158; that is, even if BTC falls back to $30,000 in a bear market one day, these LTH groups will still make money.
(Figure 1)
As of February 13, BTCs RPC is $40,927. Based on the current price of $96,600, investors still have an average of 136% floating profit, and the holding experience is excellent! Therefore, whenever the BTC price fluctuates, the panic selling pressure is not large, and it will not trigger a chain reaction. This is also one of the reasons why BTC does not fall deeply in this cycle. Such a low RPC obviously cannot be used as a reference price for the bull market cycle callback support, but it can be used as a criterion for judging the bottom stage of the bear market cycle.
On February 16, 2023, the RPC of BTC is $19,424, which has increased by 210% in 2 years; during the same period, the price of BTC increased from $23,600 to $96,600, an increase of 409%. The increase in price is much higher than the increase in capital absorption, indicating that in addition to capital, BTC has also attracted more mainstream sentiment value (high market attention).
SOL
Figure 2 shows the RPC data of SOL at different ages. In the past two years, SOL investors have had a very good holding experience. It can be seen that the average cost of all long-term holders is lower than the current SOL price. The cost of 3-6 m is $167, and the cost of 2-3 y is $71;
(Figure 2)
As of February 13, SOLs RPC is $141; at the current price of $194, investors still have an average of 37% floating profit. From this point of view, the stability of SOLs chip structure is far less than that of BTC. But on the other hand, $141 is also a very strong support level. As long as the bull market consensus is still there, the closer to this line, the smaller the selling pressure, and the stronger the bottom-fishing sentiment.
On February 16, 2023, the RPC of SOL was $39, which was the only mainstream coin with a spot price lower than RPC at that time. In other words, SOL was the most undervalued among the mainstream coins at that time, with the highest cost-performance ratio. After 2 years, RPC increased by 361%; during the same period, the price of SOL increased from $22 to $195, an increase of 886%. The increase in price was also much higher than the increase in capital absorption (better than BTC), indicating that SOL also has a very high market attention in this cycle.
BNB
Figure 3 shows the RPC data of BNB at different ages. As the only token enabled by Binance and BNB Chain, it is also worthy of the word mainstream. So lets take a look at its data performance.
(Figure 3)
The cost of 3-6 m is $575, and the cost of 2-3 y is $301; similarly, the average cost of all long-term holders is lower than the current BNB price. There is a detail that from February 5 to February 8, the BNB price fell to around $570, which happened to be supported by the 6-12 m RPC line, and then began to rebound.
As of February 13, BNBs RPC is $495; at the current price of $665, investors still have an average of 34% floating profit. But we can find that during the period from October 4, 2024 to October 7, 2024, BNBs RPC suddenly soared from $206 to $463.
This data is very strange and is very rare in other mainstream coins with more dispersed chips. It also reflects the peculiarity of BNB chip distribution. Only when a huge amount of chips with a certain circulation ratio suddenly moves at a high level will the RPC be abnormal. Therefore, it is difficult to evaluate whether the current RPC $495 can provide support (the data may be interfered with).
On February 16, 2023, BNBs RPC was $81, which was much lower than the spot price of BNB at that time, which was $304. Therefore, it was not as cost-effective as SOL or BTC at that time. But if you take into account the benefits of holding BNB, such as Launchpool, Megadrop, and HODLer, thats another story.
ETH
Figure 4 shows the RPC data of ETH at different ages. Why did I put the data of ETH at the end? Because compared with the above three, the data performance is the least ideal.
(Figure 4)
The cost of 3-6m is $2,923, and the cost of 6-12m is $3,088; that is to say, ETH is currently the only mainstream currency that makes investors who hold the currency for 12 months still in an average loss.
As of February 13, ETHs RPC is $2,104, which is exactly the lowest point of the plunge on February 3 (generating strong support). At the current price of $2,700, investors only have an average of 24% floating profit. This ratio is lower than SOL and BNB, and much lower than BTC.
On February 16, 2023, ETHs RPC was $1,482, a 142% increase in 2 years; during the same period, ETHs price increased from $1,639 to $2,700, a 164% increase. The price increase is almost the same as the increase in capital absorption, indicating that ETH has the least emotional value in this cycle. In other words, compared with BTC and SOL, the market has the lowest expectations.
Summarize
1. From the perspective of the stability of the chip structure, BTC is much better than other mainstream currencies. The long-term coin holders currently have an average floating profit of 136%. SOL and BNB are similar, at 37% and 34% respectively; ETH is the lowest, at only 24%. In other words, the current spot price of ETH is closest to the average turnover cost, and ETH holders have the worst holding experience. Once the price falls below this support, it is easy to trigger a chain reaction.
2. Comparing the price increase and the capital absorption in the past two years, BTC and SOL are more popular with sentiment, or have higher expectations.
3. Since BNBs RPC data was abnormal in 2024.10, the current RPC cannot determine whether it was interfered with. If not, the current BNB holders have a very good holding experience. At the same time, holding BNB can get additional mining or airdrop income every month, which is also a plus.
4. Finally, ETH... How should I evaluate ETH? As one of the only two crypto assets that have passed ETFs, it is high-quality. But I cannot praise the performance of the Ethereum Foundation. As the founder, Vitalik is undoubtedly a talented developer, but he may not be a qualified leader at present.
My sharing is for learning and communication only and is not intended as investment advice.
