Original title: “ What if $MELANIA was never launched? ”
Original author: 0x Finish, 0x Track member
Original translation: Rhythm BlockBeats
Editors Note: The author reviews the birth of PumpFun, the Bitcoin halving, the differences between scams in 2021 and today, and how to adapt to the new market cycle, and reminds investors in the current market environment to pay attention to limited liquidity, have a clear selling strategy, and follow the narrative in the market rotation to avoid excessive FOMO. At the same time, always keep some profits in stablecoins and continue to accumulate long-term high-quality assets like BTC.
The following is the original content (for easier reading and understanding, the original content has been reorganized):
This cycle has been extremely tough, worse than any previous cycle. Many even call it a “criminal cycle” because of the growing number of “leek-cutting” and Rug projects that are worrisome.
The purpose of this article is to look back and try to predict what’s next for those of us who just want to succeed.
The birth of PumpFun
On January 19, 2024, PumpFun was born, and the face of meme coins changed forever. Everyone was given the opportunity to launch a token, regardless of their age, profession, or nationality.
The popularity was not high at the time, but PumpFun began to gradually gain momentum in March 2024, with the first projects to appear being $MICHI and $FWOG. Anyone can launch a meme coin in seconds, and this phenomenon has changed the entire market.
As more and more tokens emerge, PumpFun becomes a fair issuance platform with no insiders cutting leeks. Although it looks attractive, the withdrawal fees are huge.
Since its launch, PumpFun has earned over $2.86 million SOL, or about $577 million USD. It may be one of the most successful startups of all time.
This liquidity was permanently extracted and pocketed by the PumpFun developers. But I think this is a big part of what makes this cycle unique. We’ll get into this more later.
Bitcoin Halving
Then came a significant moment in the current cycle. On April 20, 2024, the Bitcoin mining reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. When the first ETF was approved on January 10, 2024, many thought it might be a “sell the news” event, but in fact we saw a new ATH.
ETF + halving is the strongest bullish combination for BTC, as many have been waiting for institutional liquidity to start pumping into the market. And that is finally happening. Fidelity, BlackRock, and MicroStrategy are buying every day, pumping liquidity into the market.
This gave people hope. They thought this bull run would be similar to the previous ones, but this time, everything was different.
The market is always against the crowd, that is, if the retail is bullish, the market is likely to fall, and vice versa. Perhaps this is what happened here, and we are about to reveal it.
Your expectations are the problem
Looking back at the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the situations are very similar. It is not difficult to make money, and no special knowledge is required. At that time, there were 10-20 mainstream coins that everyone knew, and everyone was accumulating.
First, BTC will rise, and then ETH will follow. As a Beta variety of the cycle, it usually has a higher rate of return. After that, we will shift from ETH to other mainstream currencies, and then to some small currencies.
This is why many people decided to skip the BTC stage in 2024 and invest directly in ETH or other altcoins. The logic is simple. If ETH can rise 5 times and larger altcoins can rise 10 times, why wait for a 2-3 times return on BTC?
This logic is very straightforward, however, “the public” did not consider that this cycle might be different. The number of projects, tokens, and meme coins is 100 times that of the previous one, and people bought familiar tokens like $DOT, $ATOM, $ADA, etc., waiting for the promised 10x return.
As a result, when liquidity began to flow into altcoins, there were so many new projects that the old ones were left behind.
Scams in 2021 are different than they are now
Just saw @Overdose_AI raise a valid point and decided to chime in here. Back in 2021, the scammers were creative enough to get almost anyone to jump ship, as long as they werent too greedy.
Terra $LUNA is controlled by Do Kwon
FTX is controlled by Sam Fried
3AC invested for a long time before the crash
Alameda pushes a different narrative and manipulates the market
Back then, scams were relatively difficult and required a certain level of intelligence. But now, people just use big names, celebrities, and even rulers of big countries to promote their junk projects.
People got used to gambling, FOMOd into $TRUMP and $MELANIA, decided to cover their losses with $CAR or $LIBRA, and ended up losing all their money.
I know 10-15 great traders who invested in $LIBRA through DCA, took advantage of the pullback, and the insiders made over $100 million on them.
It’s time to adapt
It’s time to understand that cycles are never exactly the same, altcoins are not just Beta to BTC or ETH, they are a completely different segment that brings more risks and more opportunities.
You can’t continue to be long $DOT or $ATOM just because BTC hits new highs because that’s valid in 2021.
Make no mistake, I remain bullish on BTC and believe it will remain one of the best compounding assets over the next 10-20 years, but the returns will be similar to stocks and no longer easy 200% annual gains.
The conclusions you need to remember during this cycle
1. Holding coins for a rise is a fools game, if you dont sell at the right time, youre screwed. @MustStopMurad keeps telling you to hold coins, and almost all of his meme coins are down 80%-90% since ATH.
2. You need to have a clear selling strategy. I know this may sound harsh, but the market is like this, you must determine when to exit before making a trade.
3. Rotational narratives. We have recently experienced a crazy market rotation from meme coins to AI Agents to $TRUMP. If you fail to keep up at any point, it is almost guaranteed that most of your gains will be wiped out. Always follow the market narrative and remember that liquidity is limited.
4. Just in time is always better than early. Dont overthink, find the right time to enter the market, but dont be too anxious to wait.
5. Always transfer a portion of your profits into stablecoins. No matter how much you believe in a protocol, continuing to accumulate BTC is still a better option than most stocks or real estate opportunities.
To be honest, I dont know if we are going to go down or up next, I am currently positioned on both sides. If the market goes down, I will continue to buy more BTC and $ETH.
If the market goes up, I have enough altcoins to avoid FOMO, and I know I can profit from trading and help my followers.
I hope this cycle is not over yet and the current consolidation of BTC will determine where we go in the next 2-3 months.
