Original author: Haotian (X: @tme l0 211 )
Share a short essay about the Hong Kong Consensus Conference:
1) As in previous running events, many people were running around the side events around the main venue. In addition, they were not familiar with the map of Hong Kong. Running meetings and making dinner appointments made their legs and feet tired. The physical fatigue was indescribable. But that was nothing. The mental fatigue was even more tiring. When would it end?
2) Even in such a big environment, there are still a lot of people at all events, and the emotions are not negative at all. Perhaps most people come for the emotional value. In fact, the most popular is basically the Solana ecosystem, and the events are packed with people. In comparison, the related events of Ethereum, BTC layer 2, etc. are much bleak. I can only say that they were once glorious in the past.
3) Although it is the Consensus consensus conference, after getting in touch with more people, I feel that this is the consensus conference with the least consensus? The consensus of the entire industry is being seriously torn apart. The technical narrative PVE consensus is saddened by the MEME narrative PVP consensus, the diamond hand holders diamond hand consensus is ashamed to speak under the young P young players Trader consensus, and the old teams technical build consensus is out of tune with some marketing Tokenomics topic projects, etc. It seems that the consensus is divided, but behind it is actually the collapse of the industrys unified values. After Consensus (consensus), I am afraid that Polarization (differentiation) will become the norm;
4) Many veterans in the cryptocurrency industry have said that the market environment has changed. In fact, the market is definitely not wrong, but the old leeks past empiricism is no longer useful. Old leeks used the logic of the bull-bear transition in the past two cycles to speculate in cryptocurrencies, but found that the four-year cycle transition has failed. The market defines the bull market around hot narratives, which come like the wind and go without a trace. When you are still swearing that the bull market has just begun, the bull market has already ended;
5) There is no need to complain that it has become difficult to make money in the market. In fact, it is just that the audience for making money has changed, and the mode and logic of making money have changed. There are now a lot of market assets, and market attention (Mindshare) controls liquid wealth. Young post-00s who can stay up late dare to rush in, make money and run, have energy and courage, and become the lucky ones in this round of PVP narrative. In comparison, the old leeks with diamond hands have no chance of winning with their PVE thinking. However, every PVP wealth feast ends with a large amount of liquidity withdrawal, and it is not clear how long such a squid game can last;
6) I can feel the loneliness of a group of idealistic builders who uphold the technical narrative. This kind of frustration is different from the past. In the words of an old OG, the technical roadmap has been implemented step by step, TGE has been held as required, the community has been maintained, and the narrative has been continuously updated in combination with hot spots, but the coin price just cant be lifted. If those who do things with idealism in mind do not receive corresponding gifts from the market for a long time, does it mean that the power of innovation is exhausted? If the currency circle loses the idealistic geek spirit, what kind of spirit should the Crypto industry use to hedge against the casino stigmatization of the outside world? What, dont even need to disguise?
7) People on the AI Agent train are basically trapped badly, but most people still firmly believe in the future of the AI + Crypto narrative. I have always emphasized that, apart from the short-term application value of AI Agent landing, the key is the activation value of AI Agent to the old narratives of layer 2, ZK, modularization, chain abstraction, etc. It can give the old narrative a new build direction and make it possible for the infra that has not been landed to be applied in advance. In short, the sacrifice brought about by the current bubble burst of AI Agent is not worth mentioning compared with its future reconstruction value of the industrys major blood transfusion;
8) The operating logic of the secondary market has completely changed. BTC is the only one that stands out in the sky, but it is dragged down by ETF OTC funds. ETH, SOL, and BSC are fighting fiercely at the ecological niche level. However, no matter how they fight, the market unanimously believes that there is no overall rise in the altcoin season. What kind of locomotive you choose determines what kind of results you can harvest. Once you make the wrong choice, the result will be embarrassing, for example, if you are unlucky enough to stand on the layer 2 team.
9) The on-chain world has become the hope of most people in the cryptocurrency circle, but compared with the difficulty of making money in the CEX secondary market, the pure speed pass PVP environment on the chain is also challenging for most audiences. After the chaotic era, the on-chain world must be reshaped from the entire chain, including asset issuance, community cohesion, CEX connection, and technology application. Obviously, an on-chain story without asset issuance threshold restrictions and continuous technological innovation cannot truly change the Crypto world.
