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This week, BTC opened at $96,119.99 and closed at $96,265.98, up 0.15% for the week, with an amplitude of 6.43%, and trading volume recovered. BTC price remains within the Trump bottom (89,000 ~ 110,000 USD box).
Along with US inflation and employment data and Trumps tariff policy, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war is becoming one of the core factors affecting financial markets.
The gradual end of the war between Russia and Ukraine has become clear, which has led to a drop in oil prices and an increase in expectations for rate cuts. However, the Michigan inflation expectations data released on Friday dealt another heavy blow to the markets weak expectations for rate cuts. The two offset each other, and the markets view is biased towards the negative.
The three major U.S. stock indexes, which rebounded to near their previous highs, all fell sharply, resuming their downward trend.
The largest theft in history occurred in the crypto market, with more than $1.46 billion of crypto assets stolen from the hard wallet of Bybit, an offshore exchange closely linked to the Chinese community, on February 21. This sudden crisis and inflation expectations caused BTC, which had rebounded to nearly $100,000, to suddenly end its rise and return to the $96,000 level.
However, as the liquidation was nearly completed and the adjustment was relatively sufficient, the crypto market did not fall again in the crisis of both internal and external factors, but achieved a slight increase during the week. ETH, whose price had been hit hard before, rebounded by 2.04%.
EMC Labs continues to maintain a neutral to positive view on the short-term trend of the crypto market. Although the US CPI rebounded, the market has basically completed the pricing of the expected rate cut, and the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the increase in oil production both point to a reduction in oil prices. Based on this, it can be judged that the rate cut expectations may be reset in the near future.
Macro-financial and economic data
The United States and Russia held preliminary talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss the possibility of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war and made a breakthrough. The negotiating parties are gradually approaching the final outcome.
Trump called on OPEC to increase oil production, causing the Brent crude oil price, which had originally rebounded, to plummet by 3.08% on the 21st, wiping out the gains for the whole week.
On Friday, the University of Michigan released data for February, showing that consumers expect prices to rise by 3.5% per year over the next five to ten years, the highest level since 1995. At the same time, the consumer confidence index fell from 71.7 in January to 64.7 in February. This report reinforced the resilience of rising inflation and once again weakened market expectations of interest rate cuts, becoming the news with the greatest impact on the market this week.
For most of this week, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded in small steps, gradually approaching their previous historical highs. After the release of the University of Michigan data, the market fell sharply, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones and SP 500 falling 2.51%, 2.51% and 1.66% respectively in the week.
London gold and US 10-year Treasury yields were once again driven by safe-haven funds, rising 1.81% and falling 1.11% respectively during the week.
Selling pressure and selling
In terms of selling pressure, long and short hands sold a total of 135,994 coins, which continued to decline, and the power of both rising and falling was insufficient. The outflow of the exchange stock exceeded 10,000 coins, and the trend did not change much.
The floating profit situation of long and short hands has not changed much, with long hands at 289% and short hands at 4%. There is no significant selling pressure at present.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF diverged again. Stablecoins saw inflows of $1.117 billion for the week, while BTC ETFs saw outflows of more than $546 million.
The deterioration of the U.S. stock market environment has led to a continuous outflow of funds from the BTC Spot ETF, which is still the main reason for the weakening of BTC.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.375, and the market is in an upward relay period.
EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.
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