Original author: Pepper (X: @off_thetarget )
Tldr Conclusion
1. External market (idiots form LP on Raydium) use their own chips -> their chips are obtained from the bonding curve, and external market chips are seriously underestimated
Optimal strategy: Buy $send , buy external $super , no brushing
2. If the external market is higher than your cost price, then you can go for brushing. In the same time (5 minutes), the more you brush, the fewer points you get. Reduce high-frequency area operations and find time for Asians to sleep. You must buy immediately after getting the points. Dont delay. The later you brush, the more expensive it will be. Brush as soon as possible, the flywheel cant be stopped.
3. New model meme platform does not want platform coins, but takes your expectations for platform coins in exchange for part of your handling fee income. The $super tokens that can be obtained by points will become less and less and the price of $super will become higher and higher. Destruction is related to point exchange, and points are controlled by the function of transaction volume + number of traders.
4. The $super of the outer disk is the expected value of the first batch of $super investors of the inner disk / also the cost line. When the gear starts to accelerate (n = 4-8), the MC of the inner disk takes off and exceeds the value of the outer disk. There is a serious mismatch. Because of insufficient liquidity, the outer disk is likely to be pulled away (just remember that the two bonding curves are completely different, one is x * y =k, and the other is x^n *y =K). Different formulas, different calculation methods, different expectations, even a fool cant figure it out.
Detailed analysis: The misunderstanding of market value of internal and external disk/unlimited disk
1. Let’s first look at the ordinary “external market” under the AMM mechanism
Most previous AMM mechanisms were calculated using x * y = K, which means that the value of K fluctuates with the values of x and y. They are usually composed of two pairs, where x and y represent the inventory of the two tokens respectively, and k is a liquidity parameter. The inventory changes during each transaction while k remains unchanged, and k increases or decreases accordingly during each addition and removal of liquidity.
In short, liquidity decreases -> prices decrease -> the market dies.
Forced liquidity needs to rise.
However, the bonding curve of @_superexchange is infinite, and there is no distinction between internal and external plates.
2. Comparison between pumpfuns internal market and super exchange
The bonding curve is different from the bonding curve of pumpfun. Although it is also a reference to the AMM model, the bonding curve of the virtual disk is different.
I referred to the previous analysis article:
The http://PUMP.FUN pricing system has a pre-set virtual pool, the amount of $Sol in the virtual pool is x 0, and the total amount of tokens is y 0. By collecting data on the amount of $SOL purchased by platform users and the corresponding tokens obtained, and fitting it with the x*y=k formula, it is obtained that the pre-set virtual pool is 30 $SOL and 1073000191 tokens, the initial k value is 32190005730, and the price of each token is 0.000000028 $SOL .
At Pumpfun, we divide it into several areas before graduation, assuming that 20-40% is one area, 40% -80% is one area, and 80% - 100% (graduation) is one area.
20% - 40% : Then the price formula is: y=k/x, and the early price liquidity changes: dy/dx=−k/x, that is, when x is small, the price is sensitive to purchases and liquidity is low.
40% -80% : As x increases, liquidity remains low and small purchases lead to rapid price increases.
80% - Graduation : |dydx|| becomes larger, and buying a small amount of (x) causes (y) to drop sharply, which cannot support large capital. A common manifestation is that after the inner disk is about to reach 80K, the robot quickly smashes the disk, which can drop to 20-30K, which is the performance of the pool.
Summary: Forced liquidity demand rises.
Now let’s take a look at super exchange.
His formula is x^n * y = k, where n has 7 levels, ranging from 32 to 1.
When N = 32,
The change in liquidity here is: Liquidity change: dydx=−n⋅kxn+1. When n = 32, |dydx| is extremely small, the price is insensitive to (x), and the liquidity is high.
In laymans terms, x buying is insensitive to price and always increases liquidity.
When N = 8-4,
Liquidity changes: |dydx|=n⋅kxn+1, as n decreases, |dydx| increases but is suppressed by xn+1, and the market depth is stable.
The common understanding is that as n decreases and x increases, the price starts to bulldoze upwards, and the depth is stable.
When N = 1,
Liquidity changes: Liquidity changes: |dydx|=kx 2, (x) increases, |dydx| decreases, and the market depth is stable.
In simple terms, it means that it can support larger capital entries and larger capital exits without having a particularly large impact on depth.
Summary: Forced liquidity demand rises.
