The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
This week, BTC opened at $85,177.33 and closed at $93,780.57, up 10.10% for the week, with an amplitude of 12.73%, achieving a three-week consecutive rebound, and the volume has increased. On Monday, the strong rise took the key indicator 120 moving average, and then ran above it for the whole week, showing a strong willingness to go long.
Trumps reciprocal tariff war is in the second phase - negotiation. The White House continues to release new signals of good progress, while the other negotiating party is vague, indicating that the negotiation results are not clear.
Trump made it clear that he would not remove Powell, which made the trading theme of the market in the past few weeks - the Federal Reserves independence was damaged, and the triple kill of stocks, bonds and currencies would cause the US economy and finance to fall into greater chaos, which was weakened. Stocks, bonds and currencies all stabilized and rebounded.
The Federal Reserve has also released positive news. Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve and a 2026 FOMC voter, said that if the situation changes, the Federal Reserve has the ability to act quickly. Federal Reserve Board member Waller also said that if the job market declines severely, the Federal Reserve may push for more and faster interest rate cuts.
The performance of global markets, especially the U.S. financial trading markets, in the past few weeks has fully demonstrated the irrationality and arbitrariness of the reciprocal tariff war and its huge impact on the world economic system. The compromises made by Trump and the Federal Reserve in response to the triple kill of U.S. stocks, bonds and currencies show what we mentioned in last weeks weekly report: Politics, economy and markets will first operate along a rational path in the medium and long term.
However, it should be noted that the market rebound is a temporary elimination of concerns that the reciprocal tariff war may cause a market crash and economic recession. The further trend of the market will depend on whether the reciprocal tariff war can be ended in time and whether the US economy will really go into recession. Based on this judgment, the Q1 financial report disclosure of US stocks is particularly important.
Policy, macro-finance and economic data
President Trump and his staff said that the tariff war was making good progress, especially negotiations with China were going on actively, and Trump even said that an agreement that satisfied both sides could be reached. However, the Chinese government directly pointed out that the two sides had not started negotiations.
The countries that are actually negotiating include Japan and South Korea. The probability of these two countries reaching conditions that are beneficial to the United States is very high, and the extent of giving up interests will also serve as a good example for other countries.
The truly difficult US-China negotiations show no signs of having entered the actual consultation stage. Therefore, the second phase of the reciprocal tariff war has just begun, and there is still a long way to go before significant progress can be made. This determines that the time and space for the market rebound are suppressed, and it is difficult to be optimistic in the short term.
Powells speech this week revolved around the inflation and economic uncertainty brought about by Trumps tariff policy, set the tone for the upcoming May interest rate meeting, and reiterated the independence of the Federal Reserve. His argument remained consistent -
The Fed will use data to drive policy and maintain interest rates stable. It will not succumb to political pressure to cut interest rates, but it hints that if inflation or employment data change significantly, policy may be adjusted. Other Fed comments emphasize its dovish side, that is, the possibility of a rate cut in June.
As of the weekend, the CME FedWatch dashboard showed a 62.7% chance of a rate cut in June. As the market rebounded, the probability value has dropped significantly compared to the past two weeks.
On April 23, the Beige Book of the Federal Reserve was released, indicating that 8 of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported basically no significant changes in economic activity, and the overall economic growth rate slowed down. Only a few districts (such as Atlanta and Dallas) reported slight growth, while districts such as Boston and Chicago reflected a worsening economic outlook. The business side reacted strongly to the tariff policy, with inflation expectations in many districts rising to 3.5% in 2025, and manufacturing activity further contracting, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 48.5. Spending on the consumer side grew modestly, but high prices and tariff expectations began to undermine consumer confidence. Retailers reported inventory backlogs, especially for imported goods, and sales growth was lower than expected. Employment levels were generally stable, but hiring activity weakened, and some districts reported increased layoffs, especially in retail and manufacturing. Wage growth slowed, but it was still higher than pre-epidemic levels, and labor shortages persisted in technology industries and high-skilled jobs.
The Beige Book, one of the Feds focuses, shows that the negative impact of tariffs is emerging, but the extent is not yet clear.
With the dovish statements of Trump and the Federal Reserve, the extreme panic in the market was relieved. After falling to 97.991, the US dollar index rebounded to 99.613 and stabilized. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 1.42% to close at 3.7560%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 2% to a neutral area of 4.245%. Risk markets performed better, with Nasdaq, SP 500 and Dow Jones rebounding 6.73%, 4.59% and 2.48% respectively.
Gold, which was hit by yield uncertainty, reached $3,499.93 an ounce at the beginning of the week, but then plunged for two days and turned negative during the week.
Selling pressure and selling
With the sharp rebound in prices, the scale of selling on long and short bracelets increased this week, mainly from short hands. The scale of on-chain selling increased to 197,040.26 pieces for the whole week, of which 190,568.61 pieces were short hands and 6,471.65 pieces were long hands. The outflow from the exchange increased to 62,696.12 pieces, the largest net outflow week since this cycle. This outflow not only eased the market selling pressure, but also showed that the markets enthusiasm for buying was very strong.
Statistics on the scale of long and short selling
Long-term holdings increased by more than 120,000 coins this week. Another long group worth noting is the shark group (a cluster of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC), whose weekly increase was also close to 30,000 coins.
Funds In and Out
As the Federal Reserve and Washington return to rationality, funds flowed into the stablecoin and ETF channels this week, with a total inflow of nearly US$7 billion.
Crypto market capital inflow and outflow statistics (weekly)
Net inflows were recorded on 6 of the 7 trading days, indicating that medium- and long-term funds entered the market fiercely. However, it should be noted that as the price of BTC rebounded to the $95,000 level, tariff war conflicts and economic recession are still in the air, and the most optimistic rate cut is not expected until January, market differences are still there, and short-term fluctuations are inevitable.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.50, and the market is in an upward relay period.
About EMC Labs
EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.
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