Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
Since the market fell from the top in December 2024, the market has been volatile for several months. Many players have suffered heavy losses in the endless downward trend and volatile market. Market noise is also seriously divided on bulls and bears and longs and shorts. The macro environment is unstable, Trump is wielding the tariff stick, the Feds interest rate cut is still far away, market liquidity is tightening, and community pessimism is spreading.
So how is the crypto market going? If Bitcoin still has room to rise, is this the bottom of the market?
1. The panic index has been below 40 since February this year.
The CMC Fear Greed Index is a measure of the overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market on CoinMarketCap. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with lower values indicating extreme fear and higher values indicating extreme greed. The index helps investors understand the emotional state of the market and plan their buying and selling decisions. In addition, it provides reference information on whether the market is undervalued (extreme fear) or overvalued (extreme greed).
As shown in the above figure, from July to early October 2024, the market experienced panic index falling below 40 (panic) several times, followed by FOMO sentiment in November of that year, with the index exceeding 80 at one point, and then the market fell back. Currently, the market panic index has fallen below 40 again since early February this year.
The lower the market panic index is, the more likely it is that the currency price may be at a temporary bottom range.
2. Bitcoin’s 7-day average funding rate fell 85% compared to December last year
The 7-day average funding rate of perpetual contracts can be used as one of the important indicators for observing market sentiment. When the market is hot, the funding rate is often high, which is often the top range of the market cycle. On the contrary, it is often the bottom range of the market.
As shown in the above figure, the 7-day average funding rate of BTC in March 2024 once exceeded 0.06%, indicating that the market long funds are willing to pay high costs to short funds, and the market sentiment is extremely FOMO, which also became the highest point in the first quarter of that year. From November to December 2024, its funding rate was still above 0.03%, and Bitcoin also broke through the $100,000 mark at this time. However, before the market took off, Bitcoins 7-day average funding rate was negative from May to October of that year.
As of writing, the funding rate has reached 0.004%, down 85% from its peak in December. Market sentiment is pessimistic.
3. ETH profit ratio hits a 4-month low
Ethereums market value has fallen 36% from its local high seven weeks ago, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of ETH in a profitable state. From the daily closing data, the current ETH profit ratio hit a four-month low, and the number of profitable tokens also fell to a three-month low.
As the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum has underperformed other large-cap currencies, and market sentiment has fallen significantly negative. Despite the current panic (FUD) and continued selling by retail investors, Ethereum may rebound once the crypto market stabilizes.
4. Bitcoin miners surrendered again since early February this year, and the difficulty of mining has increased instead of decreased
The capitulation of Bitcoin miners is often regarded as one of the important reference indicators of the market bottom. The capitulation of miners means that the profit of mining a Bitcoin in the market is lower than the cost. According to historical data, the capitulation of Bitcoin miners is often the bottom range of the market.
The above chart shows that since 2024, Bitcoin miners have surrendered in June and October of this year. Since 2025, Bitcoin miners have surrendered for the first time since February.
At the same time, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining has recently hit a record high of 114.7 T. A new high in difficulty usually indicates that miners are still optimistic about the long-term value of Bitcoin, otherwise they would not continue to invest in computing power. This may have a certain positive impact on market sentiment.
5. The market value of stablecoins has increased instead of decreased in the past month
Stablecoin data is one of the important reference data for observing market capital inflows. In the past month, according to DefiLlama, the market value of USDT increased by 3.4% (US$4.676 billion), while USDC soared by 22.73% (US$10.396 billion).
If calculated from January 1, 2025, the market value of USDT has increased from US$137.17 billion to the current US$141.9 billion, an increase of US$4.73 billion.
USDC data has increased from 43.77 billion US dollars to 56.28 billion US dollars today.
summary
The above five big data may suggest that the market may be in a staged bottom range, but it is difficult to say when the market will break away from the bottom range. Investors should note that even if some tokens are currently in the bottom range, some tokens with no popularity, no narrative, no fundamentals, and continuous huge unlocking are difficult to attract funds and may face the dilemma of continuing to fall.
