Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The crypto market has been turbulent recently. After Trump’s Celebrity Coin, the market is no longer hot, capital inflows have slowed down, and crypto players are tired of on-chain PvP. Today, Bitcoin briefly dropped from 105,000 to below 98,000, and fell to a minimum of 97,777.77 US dollars, with a 24-hour drop of more than 5.5%. The cottage industry was dragged down, and AI/L1/L2/re-staking/MEME fell sharply. The cottage bull market that investors have been looking forward to has not arrived, but the wallet assets have shrunk significantly.
The reasons for this decline and the subsequent market trends have naturally become topics of concern to investors. So, how do the big names and institutions view the current market situation?
Matrixport: Bitcoin bull market correction of 10% may be a strategic buying opportunity
Matrixport released a daily chart observation, saying that since the bull market started at the end of 2022, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, with 30-day price corrections rarely exceeding -10%, while monthly declines during bear markets are often as high as 30% or more.
Last week, Bitcoin approached a -10% correction level, which is often seen as a consolidation bottom in this bull run. In contrast, the +40% surges in March and November 2024 were seen as profit-taking opportunities.
Judging from the trend chart, Bitcoin is still in a bull market phase. If the trend continues, a -10% pullback could be a strategic buying opportunity.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin is expected to fall back to $70,000 to $75,000 and rise to $250,000 by the end of the year
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has just published a prediction that Bitcoin will experience a sharp correction in the short term, with prices likely to fall from current levels to the $70,000 to $75,000 range, possibly accompanied by a small financial crisis. As global central banks resume quantitative easing policies and liquidity is re-injected into the market, Bitcoin will resume its upward trend and is expected to soar to $250,000 by the end of the year.
WhaleWire founder: Japans interest rate hike caused the US stock market to fall, and arbitrage traders had to sell assets to repay loans
WhaleWire founder Jacob King posted on social media that the main reason for the plunge in stock futures was because yen arbitrage traders had to sell assets, and this week could be very bloody.
Jacob explained that in August 2024, Japan raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%, which led to the flash crash. Now, Japan has raised interest rates to 0.5%, and the 2-year yield is 0.71%. Japans higher interest rates are ending the yen carry trade, where investors borrow cheap yen to invest in other assets. Now the cost of borrowing is rising, which means they have to sell assets to repay their loans.
Coindesk analyst: BTC may have a double top pattern and may fall to $75,000
According to Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole, BTC may be forming a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart. As it failed to stay above the December high last week, BTC seems to have formed a double top pattern with neckline support around $91,300. If it falls below the neckline support, it may trigger a decline to $75,000.
Analyst Miles Deutscher: DeepSeek panic plus FOMC risk aversion may be a good opportunity to buy at the bottom
Miles Deutscher, a well-known crypto analyst, wrote that the DeepSeek panic plus the FOMC risk aversion looks like a pretty good bargain hunting opportunity. Compared with a chronic decline, market panic selling always provides a better buying opportunity. A limit order/TWAP order has been set.
Trader Alex Kruger: When faced with uncertainty and low liquidity, the market will fall sharply
Trader Alex Kruger tweeted that the problem is that few people really understand how big a change DeepSeek has brought - this problem seems difficult to quantify. In the face of uncertainty, people tend to reduce risk. When this happens under low liquidity conditions, the market will fall sharply. We formed a local bottom when Bitcoin broke through $98,000 (the market had already collapsed at that time). But this is not a decline that I would choose to bottom out unless it is for short-term operations.
Alex Kruger said he prefers to short BTC above $100,000 (not now) and temporarily put long-term investment plans on hold. This will be a very turbulent week as the Federal Reserve, earnings season, and Trumps high-frequency activities in the media will all have an impact on the market.
